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Monday, August 16, 2004
Tooting My Own Horn

On Friday, a few hours before the start of the weekend games, I decided to do a write-up on the two big series (Minny @ The Jake and White @ Red Sox). In the course of the series previews I decided to include a vague prediction of the way I thought each series would go.

Well less than 72 hours later, I picked every game right, and nearly all of the specifics I listed were dead on.

Here's what I said would happen:
Prediction: Cleveland beats up on Silva, Tribe takes game 1; Lohse battles Westbrook, but Cleveland takes the game in a close one; Durbin outpitches Mulholland, Tribe pen blows game; Cleveland wins series 2-1

Here's what really did happen:
- Game 1: Cleveland jumped all over Silva in the first inning, and got a good pitching performance from Scott Elarton to take the opener.
- Game 2: Jake Westbrook threw a great game, and the Cleveland offense take it right to the Twinkies again. Lohse takes the loss.
- Game 3: Durbin left the game with the lead, and the Cleveland bullpen first coughs up the lead, then gives it away in extras.

Here's what I said would happen:
Prediction: Contreras pitches much better, White Sox take game one; Garland pitches well, but takes loss as Schilling finds the magic again; Buehrle outduels Arroyo; White Sox take series: 2-1

Here's what really did happen:
- Game 1: Contreras did pitch much better than his previous starts against Boston. (He only had one way to go.) The White Sox showed a lot of fire and fought hard all game to keep the lead. Contreras gets his first victory over the Carmines.
- Game 2: Garland pitched pretty well, specifically in the key AB of the game for him versus Youkilis. He didn't actually take the loss, and the Sox failed to capitalize on a hittable Curt Schilling. BoSox come through late.
- Game 3: Buehrle gets squeezed early, throwing 59 pitches in the first 2 innings, but he doesn't give in, and finishes 7, getting the win.

Those are some pretty scary accurate predictions. I suppose anyone could have predicted the Cleveland bullpen meltdown, but I pinned it down to the right game, 2 days in advance.

The only thing I didn't really see coming was Shingo Takatsu's relative ineffectiveness. He still got two saves, needing more than 1 inning to get them both. Let's hope that it was just the rest between innings that hurt Shingo, and not the AL catching up to him.

Those two series weren't the only events that I predicted correctly over the weekend. I correctly picked two of the three medalists in Olympic Road Cycling. I don't have a post to prove it; you'll just have to believe me. 2 out of three ain't bad, especially when I've never even heard of the silver medalist.

I'm considering starting my own small sportsbook. I'd obviously make a killing. ;)

Vegas, here I come
I was interested how much money I would have won had I bet each of the games that I predicted here. So I went and picked up my old papers (luckily, the garbage man doesn't come until tomorrow.) and found the moneylines for each of the games.

Here's the line for each game. (Bold = my pick)
Wakefield (-165) vs. Contreras
Elarton (-110) vs. Silva
Schilling (-260) vs. Garland
Westbrook (-135) vs. Lohse
Arroyo (-150) vs. Buehrle
Durbin (-145) vs. Mulholland

Betting $100 on each game, I would have stood to make $1150 on my $600 in bets.

If I had played just a $100 6 way parlay, I would have made $5050!!!