I've Moved!!!


Cheat's ChiSox Blog
A collection of my random thoughts and haiku about the Chicago White Sox.

Email: dachort@gmail.com

Haiku Archive

Sox Blogoshpere Headlines

ChiSox Links
Soxtalk.com
White Sox Central
Futuresox.com
White Sox Interactive
Minor League Baseball
Charlotte Knights
Birmingham Barons
Winston-Salem Warthogs
Kannapolis Intimidators

Resources
Check out our great selection of White Sox memorabilia and find your favorite Wright jersey, everything is guaranteed authentic and certified.

Baseball Links
Baseball Prospectus
ESPN Stats
Baseball America
Baseball-Reference
Retro Sheet
Doug's Stats
Win Shares

Blogroll

35th Street Mess
Black Betsy
Exile in Wrigleyville
Southside Adventures
SoxNet
ChiSox Daily

Aaron Gleeman's Blog (Twins)
BatGirl (Twins)
Twins Geek
Seth Speaks (Twins)
Twins Chatter
Cleveland Indians Report
Tribe Sports
TigerBlog
Royals Baseball
Royals Court

Replacement Level Yankees
Bronx Banter (Yanks)
Golden Sombrero (0rioles)
Orioles Hangout
YaGottaBelieve (D-rays)
Bambino's Curse (Red Sox)
Firebrand of the AL (Red Sox)
Sox Nation
Blue Jay Way

Pearly Gates (Angels)
Baysball (A's)
Athletics Nation
Elephants in Oakland
Texas Rangers Blog
U.S.S. Mariner
Leone for Third (M's)
Mariner Musings

Astros in Exile
Al's Ramblings (Brewers)
The Cubs Reporter
View from the Bleachers (Cubs)
Redbird Nation (Cards) Cincinnati Reds Blog
Reds Daily
Value Over Replacement (Bucs)

The Raindrops (Mets)
Braves Buzz
Braves Journal
No Pepper (Braves)
Phillies Blog
Citizen's Blog (Phillies)

Only Baseball Matters (Giants)
Ducksnorts (Padres)
Dodger Thoughts
Random Fandom (D'backs)
Up in the Rockies

Baseball Think Factory
Hardball Times
Baseball Musings
Baseball Crank
Transaction Guy
Will Carroll Presents
Wait 'til Next Year
Sabernomics
Mikes Baseball Rants
Serious Baseball
Independent Thinking

Chicago Sports Review Blog
Mark Cuban's Blog
Hoopville
College Basketball Blog
Big Ten Basketball Blog
CySox
Want to add your link?
Email: dachort@gmail.com



Archives

Recent Posts
Off Season Outlook -- Free Agents
Off-Season Outlook -- Position Players
Off Season Outlook - Pitchers.
Even More Numbers
More Numbers to Confuse
Final Win Shares
The Big Inning
test
Memories
Oh, Brother!

Misc. Links
NFL-Fans
Marlin Baseball
The Brushback
Chicago Bears Official Site
Bicycling Forums
Graham Watson
WXRT
X-Entertainment
Homestar Runner
Fark

* * * * * * * * *


Syndicate this Site



Technorati search
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
Off Season Outlook -- Free Agents (part 2)

This has blossomed into a series. To read the first parts visit these links:
Off Season Outlook -- Pitchers
Off Season Outlook -- Position Players
Off Season Outlook -- Free Agents

I had intended to just leave the free agent topic a little vague, at least until after the World Series. But today, while doing some catching up on reading I may have missed on the internet, I came across this article over at Baseball Prospectus.

The article, entitled Predicting Future Salaries, gives a simple mathematical model to help determine the salaries of free agents. It's a good read, and I suggest you check it out. For those of you who are lazy link clickers (of which I am one), the meat of the article can be summed up by this one sentence.
A player's salary in the first year of a new contract after filing for free agency is generally equal to about .94 * (player's salary last year) + $17,500 * (VORP last year).

Taking that information, and combining with my prospective free agent list that I posted yesterday, I arrived at this. The first column is this years salary, second column is the players VORP from 2004, and the final column is thier expected salary, based on the model.
Player              2004 $    VORP  Expected$

Pedro Martinez 17.50 51.2 $17.35
Carl Pavano 3.80 62.4 $4.66
Brad Radke 10.75 60.1 $11.16
Derek Lowe 4.50 -11.5 $4.03
Paul Byrd 7.00 16.2 $6.86
Russ Ortiz 6.20 33.1 $6.41
Matt Clement 6.00 36.9 $6.29
Jaret Wright 0.85 40.3 $1.50
Chris Carpenter 0.50 41.6 $1.20
Jose Lima 0.95 28.0 $1.38
Odalis Perez 5.00 49.7 $5.57
David Wells 1.25 40.3 $1.88
Wilson Alvarez 1.50 21.0 $1.78
Placido Polanco 3.95 33.0 $4.29
Jeff Kent 9.52 52.1 $9.86
Edgar Renteria 7.25 26.5 $7.28
Nomar Garciaparra 11.50 29.7 $11.33
Mark Bellhorn 0.49 39.1 $1.14
Orlando Cabrera 6.00 15.2 $5.91
Omar Vizquel 6.25 35.5 $6.50
Todd Walker 1.75 27.0 $2.12
Eric Young 1.00 12.8 $1.16
Gabe Kapler 0.75 1.9 $0.74
Todd Hollandswort 1.00 17.1 $1.24
JD Drew 4.25 79.6 $5.39
Carlos Beltran 9.00 68.5 $9.66
Steve Finley 7.00 37.8 $7.24
Jermaine Dye 11.66 27.7 $11.45
Ben Grieve 0.70 12.3 $0.87
Danny Bautista 4.00 11.1 $3.95
Moises Alou 9.50 55.0 $9.89
Jason Varitek 6.90 47.3 $7.31
Mike Matheny 4.00 -0.8 $3.75
Damian Miller 3.00 20.1 $3.17
Mike Redmond 0.84 3.8 $0.86
Eli Marrero 3.00 24.2 $3.24
Ardian Beltre 5.00 90.3 $6.28
Troy Glaus 10.45 21.1 $10.19
Mike Lowell 6.50 53.6 $7.05
Corey Koskie 4.50 25.7 $4.68

As is plainly obvious from the list, the sigle largest contributing factor in determining a players salary is his pay from the previous season.

The problem with the model is that while it correlates for a wide range of players, it's poor at determining the salary of a single specific player. For example, based on the model; Carl Pavano would make $4.66M next season, Brad Radke would make $11.16M next season. The reality is that Pavano will make more that the $4.66M figure, and Radke will make less than the $11.16M figure. They cancel each other out, and make the model work for a large group of players.

I was really excited when I first read the article, and thought it was some sort of magic formula. About halfway through making the list, I realized that it was really just a small manipulation on the previous years salary. Still, I think it has some value, as the estimated salaries are a good "jumping off" point to guess (because that's all you can really do) next season's salaries.

In the article it mentions that they will be taking a closer look at the FA class of '05 to "see if we can discern what its members can expect to make next year." That should be another good read, as they are much smarter than me. It takes a lot for me to admit that.

For those interested in salary to performance models, Sabernomics has a few good links:
MLB Salary Estimator -- Position Players | related article
MLB Salary Estimator -- Pitchers | related article

Just checked some of the site stats... The last person to access this site did so by searching for "Mark Buehrle and Jamie engaged". Also from today, "Twins Suck wallpaper".