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Monday, November 01, 2004
ZiPS Sox 2005

Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory has put together a his projections for next season. There's no real reason to put too much thought into them. They're just an amalgam of the past few seasons, a players age, and some magic fairy dust. They don't actually effect a players performance.

But they're fun to look at, so here they are.
Name               AVG   OBP   SLG  AB   H  2B  3B  HR   R RBI HBP  BB   K  SB  CS

Magglio Ordonez .313 .378 .544 511 160 39 2 25 82 92 6 50 61 5 6
Carlos Lee .296 .358 .505 594 176 35 1 29 97 101 5 55 84 11 5
Frank Thomas .242 .378 .469 426 103 25 0 24 62 75 8 88 89 1 1
Paul Konerko .276 .352 .497 543 150 24 0 32 74 100 6 60 84 1 0
Ross Gload* .298 .339 .468 410 122 27 2 13 54 57 4 23 55 3 3
Aaron Rowand .276 .329 .491 442 122 32 3 19 71 66 9 28 74 13 5
Carl Everett# .258 .331 .447 396 102 19 1 18 51 60 11 34 67 3 3
Joe Crede .258 .313 .462 535 138 29 1 26 70 82 8 37 79 1 2
Willie Harris* .260 .335 .341 419 109 15 2 5 62 35 2 47 74 20 9
Jamie Burke .275 .320 .366 287 79 12 1 4 37 31 3 17 35 0 1
Jose Valentin# .218 .290 .448 464 101 22 2 27 67 72 3 46 121 6 5
Alex Escobar .258 .313 .478 427 110 18 2 24 64 70 4 32 128 4 3
Joe Borchard# .231 .294 .418 507 117 24 1 23 68 68 4 43 136 4 4
Timo Perez* .272 .311 .382 356 97 19 1 6 40 41 2 19 31 5 5
Ben Davis# .233 .291 .380 300 70 17 0 9 33 37 2 23 71 1 1
Sandy Alomar Jr. .233 .263 .317 189 44 7 0 3 17 20 1 7 20 0 0
Juan Uribe .267 .314 .443 506 135 25 5 18 73 65 4 33 96 8 8
Omar Vizquel# .262 .322 .361 496 130 25 3 6 64 50 2 44 57 14 7
*Lefty
#Switch hitter
I included Vizquel just because I don't think those are the type of numbers that you buy for $8M over 2 years. There's a couple of troubling projections in there.

Frank's season looks scary, but unfortunately I can't disagree with it. He's shown in the past that he's slow to recover from injuries, and I suspect 2005 will be no different.

I love Gload's projection. They need to find a way to get him 400+ AB's next season.
Name                P Age    ERA   W   L   S   G  GS    INN   H   R  ER  BB   K  HR 

Mark Buehrle* sp 26 4.04 17 11 0 35 35 236.0 251 117 106 55 148 25
Freddy Garcia sp 29 4.39 14 11 0 32 32 211.0 216 113 103 65 173 30
Jose Contreras sp 33 5.56 9 12 0 30 28 157.0 161 106 97 81 143 30
Jon Garland sp 25 5.03 12 12 0 33 33 197.0 219 121 110 74 115 27
Damaso Marte* cl 30 3.73 5 2 0 72 0 70.0 58 32 29 31 75 6
Shingo Takatsu cl 36 4.19 6 4 0 59 0 58.0 55 29 27 22 48 6
Cliff Politte mr 31 4.19 3 2 0 59 0 58.0 54 29 27 22 53 7
Felix Diaz sp 24 5.04 7 7 0 31 21 134.0 147 82 75 40 101 26
Neal Cotts* sp 25 5.27 5 7 0 38 15 94.0 84 61 55 69 92 10
Jon Adkins sp 27 4.95 5 6 0 36 16 111.0 123 67 61 38 72 17
Scott Schoenew* mr 31 5.16 6 7 0 39 14 103.0 114 65 59 44 64 15
Arnaldo Munoz* mr 23 5.21 7 8 0 39 21 133.0 135 84 77 66 110 20
Jeff Bajenaru mr 27 4.57 3 3 0 54 0 61.0 58 34 31 32 57 7
Jason Grilli sp 28 5.54 7 13 0 28 28 164.0 181 111 101 74 113 29
The pitching numbers all seem inflated. I'm not the only one to notice this, though this could just be from the new USCF.

For the pitchers, Cotts' walk rate jumps out at me. Almost as many walks as hits. That's not gonna happen. I think Diaz's numbers are spot on, though his HR rate is high.

I did a search to find last season's ZiPS and I came across this nice 2004 season preview (ZiPS included).

Edit:
Found a very brief explaination of ZiPS here.