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Friday, December 10, 2004
Sox Sign Dye

I wonder what Nancy Faust will play when Jermaine strides towards the plate next April. I hope she's on her organ playing "Live and Let Die". For those of you who wonder what that would sound like, I suggest renting, better yet buying, the movie Gross Point Blank. #1) Because there's nothing funnier than a hitman going to his high school reunion, and #2) because there is a scene where John Cusack's character enters a Kwiki-Mart™ and there is a elevator music version of GnR's Live and Let Die playing. So you'd get the feel of what I'm talking about.

I like the Dye signing much better than the Hermanson one for many reasons.

  1. Frank is not healthy -- I've heard that Frank is probably not going to be ready to go in spring training. He's still wearing a protective boot on his foot, although it's reportedly just a walking cast. It takes a lot of time for that big body to heal. And this time we're not talking about a non weight bearing part of the body like the triceps. This is Frank's foot. Frank's plant foot. The one that has to support his (listed) 275 lbs. frame. That weight certainly doesn't do a lot to speed up the recovery process.
  2. Dye will out-perform Maggs -- I know, I know. You think I'm crazy now. But think about it. Maggs traveled all over god's green earth searching for a doctor that would give him an answer he wanted to hear. Today's workout, where Maggs was going to prove his health to prospective teams, was cancelled. Why? Hmmm... I wonder. Could it be that he's not as healthy as he'd like us to believe?

    Dye is coming off of a solid, though not spectacular, season in which he was finally recovered from that horrific leg injury suffered in the 2002 playoffs. He will benefit from playing 81 games in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Magglio? Who knows. Now I should qualify my assertion that Dye will "outperform" Maggs. I mean that Dye will have better counting stats than will Magglio. I would take a bet of Dye's HR+RBI vs. Maggs HR+RBI, so long as Maggs doesn't somehow end up in Coors field.
  3. Dye is less than half the price of Maggs --With the sox limited budget, they have to maximize their production from every dollar. Maggs was offered a contract somewhere in the neighborhood of $13M/yr. The least we would have paid him at arbitration was $12.2M. Dye checks in at $4M this year, and $5M next season, significantly less than Maggs. Sure the rate stats are probably going to be lower than Maggs, but I don't think they'll be that significantly below Maggs to warrant spending the extra $8M.
Here's the ZiPS projection for Dye,
 AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG

481 78 126 26 2 22 75 48 109 3 .262 .335 .462
along with my own that I made prior to having seen the ZiPS on the night of the signing.
.270+/.340/.490 -- 30 HR's 90+ RBI's 120K's


Now comes the truly interesting part of the White Sox off-season. How creative can KW be in his attempt to improve this team? The Sox need to solidify the rotation, and at the very least need a platoon partner for Willie Harris(.186/.234/.233 vs. LHP). He has to make this happen without adding to the payroll, which depending on arbitration awards and who actually makes the team, is currently about $70M.

Current trading pieces include Carlos Lee(highest value of anyone being shopped), Paul Konerko(gets an extra $500K if traded, lowering his value), and Jon Garland(trading him wouldn't do much to strengthen the rotation as it eliminates one of the starting 4 already penciled in)

I would expect the Sox to add a utility middle infielder who can hit lefties even if they don't make a trade, but I don't expect that to happen anytime soon. KW will need more time to squeeze enough money out of JR to make that happen. Hopefully Miguel Cairo is still available at that point. Placido Polanco would be too much to ask.

Well, times up here at the Library. I'll do my best to get some updates on here from home. Anytime that there is something exciting going on in the White Sox universe I'll be sure to drop by. Things should return to normal around Christmas. Hopefully.