Cheat's ChiSox Blog

Linking to check it out

2005-12-04T02:33:00.000-06:00

I heard that Gilbero Simoni was a douchebag.

Storm Ice Hockey Academdy

2005-08-16T17:01:00.000-05:00

Storm Ice Hockey Academdy
Storm Ice Hockey
Storm Ice
Storm Ice Hockey Academdy
Storm Ice Hockey
Storm Ice
Storm Ice Hockey Academdy
Storm Ice Hockey Academdy
Storm Ice Hockey
Storm Ice
Storm Ice Hockey Academdy
Storm Ice Hockey
Storm Ice
Storm Ice Hockey Academdy
Storm Ice Hockey Academdy
Storm Ice Hockey
Storm Ice
Storm Ice Hockey Academdy
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Storm Ice
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Signing Off

2005-05-02T18:26:00.000-05:00

Just beacuase Monday and Tuesday are generally the highest trafficked days around here, I thought I would drop one more link to the new site. This is specifically directed at all of the RSS readers out there, since they probably don't even visit and can't see the giant "I've Moved" link at the top....

So drop by the new site -- South Side Sox -- I'll be updating more regularly. The site is more interactive, with features like gamethreads, diaries, and nested commenting.

The feeds for the new site are:

Com'on Weezy

2005-04-28T18:43:00.000-05:00

That's right, we're movin' on up. I've hinted at it to those of you who've emailed me. Cheat's ChiSox Blog is no more. I'm moving the blog to South Side Sox. The new blog is part of a network of Baseball blog sites, and is run on the same software as some of the most highly trafficked blogs on the net.

It was a nice run here. I pretty much quit writing back around Christmas, and lost the desire to post new material. I didn't know if I'd get even back to blogging regularly early this spring. Then as the spring training started I was reenergized, and I've been going strong ever since opening day.

The new blog promises to be even more active. So head on over there. Sign up for an account, and start making it your blog too.

The feeds for the new site are:

Thanks for reading,
The Cheat

H(a)unted

2005-04-27T22:11:00.000-05:00

First things first, let's get a little background on the Hunter Wendelstedt-Ozzie Guillen fued. Back on August 9th of last year, Hunter Wendelstedt called Carlos Lee out at second base on a stolen base attempt to end the first inning.

I just went back and watched it again, to see if it was as blatantly obvious call; it wasn't. It was a bang-bang play though, and Wendelstedt did a poor job of getting himself in position to view the ball. You can't see it on MLB.tv, they are in commercial breaks, but Ozzie comes out and argues the play, then walks back to the bullpen. As the broadcast comes back from break, Ozzie has reemerged from the dugout, and is within inches of Wendelstedt's face. -- The Cleveland announcers speculate that he saw a replay in the dugout. -- Ozzie continues to go nuts and eventually gets run, which was probably a good idea, because he didn't have to watch a horrendous outing by Felix Diaz.

That's where the fued began, and that's where it should have ended. It would have just been a normal encounter with an umpire on a call that didn't go your way. Unfortunately, it's not so simple with Ozzie at the helm.

Ozzie got a 2-game suspension, and Wendelstedt filed a report to the league office -- which I believe is required when you toss a guy. I don't know for sure though. I could be making that up -- Anyway, Ozzie Guillen got a copy of the report (again presumably league policy) and he proceed to tell anyone who would listen that it was full of lies.

"I don't blame them to suspend me or whatever it is, but the guy lied. Whatever his name is, Hunter or whatever. He lied. He lied to major league baseball, he lied to Mr. (Bob) Watson, he lied to Mr. Sandy Alderson," Guillen said. "You are not a real man when you lie, especially when you write it down."

and here

"He lied because he said I came here to see the replay and went back to the field," Guillen said. "He said [pitcher Mark] Buehrle told me the guy was safe. Mr. Buehrle didn't have to tell me, because I knew the guy was safe. He told Mr. Watson that I said he was out of position. That never came out of my mouth."

In watching the replay, Hunter was out of position, and Ozzie definitely called him a few explicatives. I was able to make out "fuck face," from the MLB.tv feed. -- Although it is Ozzie, so you never know. -- I don't know who to believe, but there was no reason to call out an umpire like that. It's only going to comeback and haunt you. -- Here's what I had to say about the whole ordeal at the time.

Even more troubling is Ozzie doesn't seem concerned how his actions are going to effect his team in the future.
"If we have trouble every time I see him ... good, I'll take the chance," Guillen said. "I don't like people when they lie. You are not a real man when you lie about something, especially when you write it down. That really bugs me."
Yep, That's really gonna help the team Oz. Thanks.

Just like a predicted, it came back to haunt the Sox in this series. Now I'm not blaming the Umps for the outcomes of the last two games. I never like to lay blame to umps or refs. They are like the weather; they're present at the game, both teams have to play with them, but they may effect one team differently than the other. You have to play through it and deal with the outcome. -- Now, onto a game recap, sort of.

* * * * *
In Tuesday's game, in the 5th inning, there was a play at the plate that didn't go the Sox way. Mark Kotsay appeared to be out, but was ruled safe. Once again, like his buddy Wendelstedt, Bruce Froemming found himself out of position. It was a judgment call, and it's the type of call that often goes the home team's way, especially when the Ump is blocked and can't see the plate. (Froemming is not in the picture at right. He's behind Widger. Widger's body is blocking Froemmings view of both the tag and the plate.)

* * * * *
In Wednesday's game, there was a play at first base where Scott Podsednik was called out on the back end of a double play. It was clear he was safe. Again some of those just don't go your way. There appeared to be a similar call on a double play later in the game that may have gone the Sox way. It seemed to be a wash.

* * * * *
Today, in the top of the ninth and 2 outs, the Sox put men on 1st and 2nd via the walk. With Joe Crede at the plate, Justin Duke-sher threw a ball inside and Crede didn't make any attempt to avoid being hit. In fact, he appeared to drop his elbow to make sure that the big breaker made contact. (You can see it by going to the MLB page and clicking on the top plays link) I know what the rulebook states,

The batter becomes a runner and is entitled to first base without liability to be put out (provided he advances to and touches first base) when He is touched by a pitched ball which he is not attempting to hit unless (1) The ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, or (2) The batter makes no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball; If the ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a strike, whether or not the batter tries to avoid the ball. If the ball is outside the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a ball if he makes no attempt to avoid being touched.

but that's not how it's normally called. Jurassic made no attempt to avoid being hit in the ass by Harden on Tuesday, yet he was awarded first. Rowand appeared to turn into the same Duke-sher curveball earlier in the game, and he was awarded first. It's just a play that's never called.

And this is where all the background on the Ozzie v. Wendelstedt fiasco comes into play. It's a call that doesn't get made, but if given the opportunity to turn the tide in a tie ball game, there's no doubt in my mind that Wendelstedt was looking to do so. Yes, it was the right call. Wendelstedt went by the book, but if that was an Oakland batter leaning in to one in that situation, Hunter's giving him first base.

Ozzie immediately challenged the call. He rushed the field and was given about 15 seconds before he was thrown from the game. After the game Ozzie had this to say,

"The thing is the attitude, that's the thing that bothers me," said Guillen of his argument with Wendelstedt. "If you give me the right answer, I'll walk away. All of a sudden, they try to big league me again. I guess I have to stay here for a long time to earn some respect. But I have to protect my players."

Crede popped up the next pitch to end the Sox inning, throwing his bat into the large foul area at McAfee Coliseum in disgust. Wendelstedt immediately ejected Crede for the bat flip, an offense that usually results in just a fine. Wendelstedt showed his true intentions on the bat flip. He needed to prove who the big man was. The only reason Crede got run from the game was the name of the team he had on his chest.

I bring all this up not as an excuse for the loss, but as a note for the future. We will see the Froemming & Wendelstedt crew again, and you can bet there will be similar plays that just happen to go the opponents way. You're not doing your job as an umpire if you are the news. You are not doing your job as an umpire if a team sees they have your crew working a series and they already know it's going in the L column.

* * * * *
Southside Shuffle
In the span of about 16 hours, the Sox had three different players make their major league debut at shortstop and one make his debut at third base. Those HBP's that I complained about yesterday added up. Uribe, Ozuna, and Iguchi all went down from plays that occurred during Tuesday's game.

While the Sox didn't hit any A's in retaliation for the 6 Sox that got plunked, Carl Everett was able to send a little message with a hard slide that broke up a would-be double play. As soon as I saw the line-up today, I knew they couldn't afford to get into a bean ball war. There were just too many people ailing, and we didn't need add another one. When the A's come to Chicago though, I know that I'm going to remember the M*A*S*H unit we had to put out there for a game. I'm sure the Sox will too.

* * * * *
Trying to pull some positives out of the last couple of games.

By all accounts the mood was light after Tuesday's debacle. They could have just packed it in and said "why us?"
They went out and competed with the little league line-up they were forced to play with today, and they took Oakland into the 9th tied 1-1.
Aaron Rowand is looking better at the plate. He seems to have better command of the strike zone. I would expect him to come out of his funk pretty soon.
Chris Widger looked really comfortable at the plate and was game when called on to play third base, where he made every play that came to him.
They're over. We don't have to go back there until July 1st.

House of Horrors II

2005-04-27T18:41:00.000-05:00

Sequals are usually terrible. They never seem to muster the creativity of the original, and the replacement cast is almost always disappointing. Not so in Wednesday's bizarre sequal to Tuesday night's mockery of a baseball game. This cast featured familiar faces in challenging roles. There were twists and turns that kept you on the edge of your seat, but ultimately the storyline fell back to the same predictable tricks to get to the denouement. I give it three stars.

Cast of Characters

House of Horrors                House of Horrors II
Paul Konerko          1B        Paul Konerko
Tadahito Iguchi       2B        Willie Harris
Juan Uribe            SS        Joe Crede
Pablo Ozuna           3B        Chris Widger
Scott Podsednik       LF        Scott Podsednik
Aaron Rowand          CF        Aaron Rowand
Jermaine Dye          RF        Jermaine Dye
Chris Widger          C         AJ Pierzynski
Mark Buerhle          SP        Freddy Garcia
Damaso Marte          LP        Damaso Marte
Bruce Froemming      UMP        Hunter Wendlestedt

The original House of Horrors, was just that, a horror story. The sequel, however, deftly mixed comedy in with the horror to create a much more watchable game.

HoH II picks up about 14 hours after the original. Casualties from the original cast were Jaun Uribe (groin), Pablo Ozuna (wrist), and Tadahito Iguchi (knee). The new left side of the infield, Crede and Widger, provided the much needed comic relief.

OK, I think I've carried this joke long enough... I'm no batgirl. I'll have a normal recap up later tonight.

House of Horrors

2005-04-27T00:29:00.000-05:00

So this is what it feels like to be a Cubs fan? Living in Chicago, I get to watch my fair share of Cubs games, obviously. They've always seemed to have a penchant for being able to lose even the most winable games. That's exactly what the Sox did tonight. Lose a winable game, and in about the ugliest fashion you can lose a game too.

* * * * *
3-17 in their last 20 games in Oakland. Tonight's game was an illustration why. They invent new ways to lose games out there. There's absolutely no explanation for it. The Sox suck in Oakland. That's just the way it is. I'd rather see 10 games at the Yankees or Red Sox than 3 at the A's. As Pedro would say, "The A's are the White Sox Daddy."

Rather than ranting about Jermaine Dye's terrible defense, or Willie Harris' costly "error", (There was a blind man scoring the game last night, and Durazo was credited with a hit.) I'm just going to touch on the one thing that really bothered me. The rest, as they say, is water under the bridge... for now. If we play like crap for the 4th time in 5 days tomorrow I'll have a whole lot to say tomorrow.

* * * * *
SAT Question

2004 White Sox : Walking in the winning run :: 2005 White Sox : ____________________

A) Ozzieball
B) Pitching and Defense
C) WTF!?! That kid is chasing another ball in LF?!
D) Balking in the tying run

* * * * *
In two games, Sox batters have been hit by 4 pitches. AJ Pierzynski is obviously gimpy, even though they say he's fine. We know better because he hasn't played in three days. How did he find his way onto the pine? HBP. Jurassic took one off the fat part of his ass. He then proceeded to mouth off to anyone within earshot, which seemed to wake the A's up. Pablo Ozuna left Tuesday's game; HBP, the second in two days. Juan Uribe left Tuesday's game; not HBP, but it appeared that he tweaked his groin avoiding being hit by a pitch. Joe Crede was a late scratch from Tuesday's line-up; Guess what? He was hit by a pitch the game before. Tadahito Iguchi got taken out turning a double play in the third. He never looked comfortable after that, failing to turn at least one, if not, two double plays afterwards. (I'm not sure. My memory's a little bit hazy after watching that "game.") It's time for somebody to be taken down, and taken down hard.

Ozzie talks big, but last year when the going got tough, there was no retaliation. (Supposedly this, not the grooved first pitch grand slams, is what got Thriller his pink slip.) How many guys have to come up lame before we see some action Ozzie? You're all bark. No bite.

Edit: Just to avoid further confusion. I should have noted my displeasure with the players also. I was talking via AIM during the game and I believe my comment in the 7th when Mark Buehrle came back out was something like "Show some balls Buehlre, Bean him." Then when Buehrle had been run and runners sat on second and third with no outs, I called for Damaso to do the same. I "yelled" at Marte even more than Buehrle, because in his situation, putting a man on was actually beneficial, bringing the double play back in order.

Body Snatchers

2005-04-26T19:20:00.000-05:00

That's got to be the explanation for the recent rise of Jon Garland. Surely the guy we've seen throw the first 4 outings is not the same model of inconsistency we've watched for the past 4 years. Taking a look at the stats in Garland's 4 seasons as a full time starter, he appears to be a completely different pitcher.

              IP       H      HR      BB       K     ERA     BAA
    2002   192.2     188      23      83     112    4.58    .258
    2003   191.2     188      28      74     108    4.51    .260
    2004     217     223      34      76     113    4.89    .269
    2005      30      21       1       5      11    1.80    .200

My eyes tell me the same thing. Garland is pitching completely differently. He doesn't seem to be the nibbler that he once was. (His control waned a little at the end of the game last night, falling behind often in the last two innings, but his defense and an impatient Oakland offense bailed him out.)

It's been my contention in the past that Garland's curveball was the key to his success. That theory, it seems, has been debunked. He didn't even use the curveball that often in the first two starts, and I wouldn't say he had excellent command of it in either of the last two outings. I had speculated that the curve, if he was able to throw it in any count, would become his "out pitch." Again, this doesn't appear to be the case. Garland's change up is the pitch that has really been the difference.

Garland's change used to a get-me-over. He wasn't fooling anyone with it, and it often ended up as a souvenir for a lucky fan with out field seats. His change is not in Johan Santana territory. It's not even in Keith Foulke territory, but it's working. Garland has always had a good, but not overpowering fastball. It would top out at about 94, and sat in the low 90's. With the addition of the change, which is running 81-84, with a good motion, Garland has been able to neutralize a player sitting on any one pitch. They've got to be in protect mode.

As if that wasn't enough, he appears to have more movement on his pitches also. I didn't notice at much last night, but in his first three outings he has some late movement on his FB/sinker. Sprinkle all of that with some great defense behind him, and you've a long term recipe for success.

Garland's splits help illustrate what my eyes have seen.


              Vs. Lefties             Vs. Righties
             BAA    OPSA    K/BB     BAA    OPSA    K/BB
    2002    .287    .832    1.00    .220    .625    2.00
    2003    .278    .798    1.17    .234    .708    2.00
    2004    .262    .771    1.22    .277    .796    1.90
    2005    .098    .268    2.00    .314    .798    3.00

Early in his career, Garland had a lot of trouble with left-handers. That probably has something to do with him facing more lefties than righties on his career. Obviously he's not going to be able to continue with a .268 OPS against lefties, but it's clear that the change-up has been an equalizer. These splits prove that it's a little bit too early to proclaim him a new pitcher, but, I'm happy to see his continued improvement against lefties.

Taking a look at some more esoteric stats gives a broader view of Garland's improvement.

              IP     K/9    BB/9    K/BB   BABIP
    2002   192.2    5.24    3.89    1.35    .261
    2003   191.2    5.08    3.48    1.46    .255
    2004     217    4.69    3.15    1.49    .260
    2005      30    3.30    1.50    2.20    .202

Jon's K/9 has fallen in each his years as a starter, but he's offset that with increased control. So far this season, Garland is pitching to contact,(12.8 pitches/IP against a previous best of 15.7 in 2004. This can be explained by allowing less baserunners though) resulting in a much lower K rate, but a much better walk rate.

The final column, BABIP, or batting average on balls in play ([H-HR]/[AB-K-HR]) is a category that Garland excels at. Basically, league average for BABIP is about .300, and you would expect Garland's BABIP to trend toward that level. However, Garland has been in the top 12 in the AL in BABIP in each of the last three seasons. Baseball Prospectus has done some work on this, and have found that certain pitchers (notably the ones with large disparities in pitching speeds)have a greater control on balls in play. Garland is obviously one of these players. Some regression to the mean should be expected, but it's not out of the question for him to post another .250, or possibly lower, BABIP.

Now it's time to temper my excitement about Garland. It's only been four games, 30 innings pitched. He's had some spectacular defense behind him so far. SMALL SAMPLE SIZE warnings heeded.

I still think that Garland is well on his way to having the best year of his career. The key will be his control. Can he continue to issue just 1.5 BB/9IP? If so, I have faith, that even with some regression to the mean, he can post a sub-4 ERA.

* * * * *
Money well spent

High Five

2005-04-26T12:37:00.000-05:00

Quote: The Cheat, yesterday: Jon Garland may have to take some pressure off the bullpen later tonight by working deep into the game. The pen has been shortened by two abbreviated outings by the Cuban Connection (8.1 IP), an extra inning game, and the sore back of Dustin Hermanson. It might not be that big of a deal, but it's something to watch for tonight.

Apparently it was a big deal. Jon Garland pitched an absolute beauty, going 9 innings, and giving the bullpen a much needed night off. Mark Buehrle goes tomorrow (32 straight games with 6+ IP) so the bullpen should have a light day tomorrow also.

I'll wax poetic about Jon Garland tomorrow before the game. I'll be bored again before the game starts.

* * * * *
20 games in, and the Sox have a 5 game lead on Minnesota. The last time they had a lead that big in the division was the final game of the 2000 season. Amazing.

* * * * *
On the injury front, both AJ Pierzynski and Dustin Hermanson were available for Monday night's game, but weren't needed; Pierzynski because tough lefty Barry Zito was on the hill, Hermanson because of Garland's workman-like effort.

Jose Contreras was feeling fine after leaving Saturday's game with what appeared to be a pulled hamstring. Herm Schnieder put him through a series of tests, saying,

"We were doing everything," Schneider said. "[Contreras] went through a tough workout and passed with flying colors."

Contreras still has to throw on the side later today before he is cleared for Thursday's game. If he can't go for that game, El Duque will start in his place, like I had suggested. Only if Contreras was to miss multiple starts would the Sox make the call down to AAA phenom Brandon McCarthy.

* * * * *
I guess Peter Gammons doesn't like the White Sox. These Sox don't bleed, Peter.

A know-it-all baseball scribe from the East Coast put in a call to the White Sox's general manager, Ken Williams, as the club was getting off to a best-in-the-bigs record of 15-4.

Williams quickly came to realize that the guy thought the Sox's start was a stroke of luck, an aberration, a fluke.

"I'm sorry that you don't like our manager," Williams says he told him.

"I'm sorry that you don't like our 3-4-5 hitters. Or our closer.

"I'm sorry that you don't like our third baseman and our shortstop. Or our left fielder and our right fielder.

"I'm sorry people feel this way about our club. But I also want you to know something about that:

"We don't care."

Suck it.

Frank & Prospect Roundup

2005-04-25T19:02:00.000-05:00

It's 7PM and there hasn't been a White Sox game in over 28 hours. I'm going stir crazy. Blogging will pass the time...

* * * * *
Joe Cowley, beat writer for the Daily Southtown, reports that it could be as long as the All-Star break until the Sox see Frank Thomas back in the line-up. Frank ran on Friday, and paid for it with "excruciating" pain on Saturday.

"This is excruciating. After I run, it's just really, really sore. I ran the other day (Friday), and I ran hard, and it was really sore. I don't know what we're going to do now. Hopefully, we'll come up with something."

I wasn't really worried about Frank until now. I thought he would be back around June, and ready to tear up the AL after the ASB. But, as it appears now, I have know idea when (or even if) we'll see a healthy Frank Thomas on the Southside.

* * * * *
Since I had some time to kill, I compiled a little list of notable Sox prospects along with their stats so far. I'm not going to add any commentary, as I haven't seen any of these guys play since spring training. I'm not going to falsely claim to be an expert on a bunch of guys I haven't really seen play.

    Name     G   AB  R   H   2B  3B  HR RBI  TB  BB  SO SB   AVG   OBP   SLG
Charlotte
B Anderson   16  57  11  18  7   1   3   10  36   7  16  0  .316  .400  .632
B'Ham
C Rogowski   16  63  13  22  7   0   0   9   29   4  23  4  .349  .397  .460
A Gonzalez   15  44  4   15  1   0   0   8   16   8   9  0  .341  .436  .364
J Fields     15  53  8   18  3   0   1   9   24   6  15  3  .340  .419  .453
J Owens      16  64  11  18  0   0   0   4   18   4  13  6  .281  .324  .281
C Young      16  64  14  14  6   0   3   5   29   7  23  3  .219  .306  .453
W-S
R Valido     17  75  12  27  5   1   2   8   40   1   6  7  .360  .368  .533
M Schnurstei 16  56  11  18  3   0   2   8   27   7  10  2  .321  .406  .482
Kanny
A Ricks      16  54  9   10  1   1   1   5   16  11   9  1  .185  .343  .296
F Hernandez  11  39  3   9   2   0   1   2   14   2   8  0  .231  .268  .359





    Name     W   L  ERA  G   GS   IP   H   R   ER  HR    BB    SO
Charlotte
B McCarthy   1   2  3.91 4   4    23   21  11  10   3    7     29
B'Ham
S Tracey     2   0  2.2  3   3  16.1   14  4   4    0    8     12
K Honel      1   2  9.64 3   3    14   22  15  15   5    10    6
P Reynoso    0   0  0.00 6   0   8.1   1   0   0    0    8     6
W-S
D Haigwood   2   1  2.08 4   4  21.2   25  8   5    3    6     23
R Rodriguez  3   0  3.38 3   3    16   17  8   6    1    5     11
Kanny
G Gonzalez   2   1  1.23 4   4    22   11  4   3    0    6     38
R Liotta     2   0  2.00 3   3    18   15  5   4    0    5     17

It's only the Royals

2005-04-25T00:37:00.000-05:00

With the White Sox off to their best start in team history, I'm finding it hard not to become too optimistic about our chances this season. OK, I'm not finding it that hard, but I do have to remind myself occasionally that they won't be able to win 'em all. About a week ago when the Sox failed to close out the finale of a 3-game sweep for the third consecutive series, I grumbled that the Sox didn't have the killer instict to put teams away. Since that entry, the Sox have gone 9-1, winning 4 series, and finally getting that sweep today. (I don't count two-game sets as sweeps... It's not that hard to take two from an opponent, and the Sox had already proven they could do that)

* * * * *
Much like Saturday, Sunday was a game the Sox didn't deserve to win. After 7 innings, the Sox had twice as many errors in the field as they had hits, and Sox starter, El Duque, had walked 6, while throwing 111 pitches in 5 innings. But it's results that count, and it's results they got.

* * * * *
Pablo Ozuna came up big in his lone plate appearance, driving in the winning run with a shot just inside the first base bag. Then when he took the field at first base, a position I had yet to see him play, he made a play on a ball that Mike Sweeney gave a one-way ticket through the hole on the right side. Ozuna was playing well off the line, positioning I assume was called from the dugout, that allowed him to range to his right and turn what looked to be a sure hit into a rather routine play. With lefty Matt Stairs batting behind Sweeney representing the possible winning run, that fielding play was about as big as you can get, considering the way Shingo has pitched as of late.

* * * * *
El Duque, once again, didn't have his best stuff or command. He battled all game -- It's probably hypocritical of me to call it battling when he does it, and refer to it as struggling when El Conde does the same. Oh well, at least I recognize the hypocrisy of it all. -- including walking Matt Stairs three times. (Walking stairs might have been his best decision all day. The first time anyone actually pitched to him, he put the Royals up 3-2 on a solo shot to straight away center.)

* * * * *
Jon Garland may have to take some pressure off the bullpen later tonight by working deep into the game. The pen has been shortened by two abbreviated outings by the Cuban Connection (8.1 IP), an extra inning game, and the sore back of Dustin Hermanson. It might not be that big of a deal, but it's something to watch for tonight.

* * * * *
The Sox start a three game set in the house of horrors tonight at 9PM Central. I don't think I have to explain to you the Sox recent trouble in Oakland. Last season's trip to the Bay Area featured what I thought was the real turning point of the season.

Oakland is pretty much a mirror image of the White Sox at this point in the season.

We've got a crappy OBP (.298) -- They've got a crappy OBP (.306)
We can't hit w/ RISP (.202) -- They can't hit w/ RISP (.215)
We've got the best ERA in the AL (3.12) -- They've got the second best ERA in the AL (3.65)
They've got probably the best defense in the AL. We've got one of the best in the AL.

Oakland and Chicago rank near the bottom of every offensive category, and near the top of every pitching and defensive category. In short, it should be a low scoring series. Expect some more 1-run games.

AL Central Rabbits

2005-04-24T00:37:00.000-05:00

rab·bit -- Sports. A runner who intentionally sets a fast pace for a teammate during a long-distance race.

The White Sox have gotten off to the best 18-game record (14-4) in their 104-year history. They've won six straight, and eight of their last nine. They're an MLB best 7-1 in 1-run games. They have won the opening two games of their first 7 series. They sit at 10 games over .500, a mark they could never quite crack at any point of 2004. They have their biggest lead in the Division since the final game of the 2000 season. Their rotation easily has the best ERA in the AL. I could go on like this all night. In short, the start of the season has been something special.

* * * * *
The crazy thing about the hot start is how they are just finding a way to win games they shouldn't. Saturday night, they were 0-8 with RISP at the end of 9 innings; they had not hit a HR, and yet they were tied 2-2.

The first inning was a microcosm of the season to date. Scott Podsednik led off with an infield single. Tadahito Iguchi followed with a catcher's interference on a bizarre play. Zach Greinke didn't get the ball far enough outside on a pitch-out, and when John Buck reached back to field it, Iguchi swung and hit is glove, resulting in catcher's interference. Greinke was then called for a balk trying to chase Podsednik back towards 2nd, and Carl Everett grounded out to first to plate Pods. The Sox took an infield single, and with very little effort turned it into a run.

* * * * *
Saturday's game was one the Sox had now business winning. The Sox had lost their starter, and had a shortened bullpen because the yet-to-be-scored-upon Dustin Hermanson was unavailable with a sore back. The 3-6 hitters went 1-18, which is becoming a theme in KC. They are 2-36(.056), and yet the Sox have outscored KC 12-4. The bullpen provided 6.2 innings of 1-run baseball. The key play being the 1-out bases loaded wild pitch and subsequent play at the plate by Marte. After getting the winning run out at the plate, Marte punched out Eli Marrero. At that point, you knew the Sox had snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

Aaron Rowand provided the game winning RBI in a 2-out 10th inning rally, hopefully working himself out of a funk in the process. Rowand was given the day off by Guillen. It was the first game of the year he didn't start in center field. Jermaine Dye and his .180 batting average should expect to get a rest tomorrow.

* * * * *
Jose Contreras left the game in the fourth inning with what is being described as a strained lower right hamstring. For once, I was actually sad to see him leave so early. He was really working his fastball well, and didn't seem to be shaking off too many pitches at all. Aside from the first batter he faced (a solo HR to DeJesus) it seemed to be working (6K's, 1H).

If you needed further proof that all of the Sox stars are in alignment, the Sox have an off day on Thursday, which would be Contreras' day to pitch. The result is they can skip his spot in the rotation and keep the other starters on normal rest. Saturday May 7th is the first day that the Sox would need a 5th starter. They could keep Contreras with the team if his injury isn't too bad, and not have to send him to the DL. If he had to go on the DL, his first day that he would be eligible to be back would be the 10th. Because they can send him to the DL retroactively and they don't need him right now, the decision doesn't have to be made until around the 6th.

* * * * *
The other day I said I would talk about Jon Garland's hot start. I'm going to hold off for at least one more start. He's got some weird splits, and I have to watch him closely one more time before I'm ready to deem the corner turned.

* * * * *
Via Jayson Stark's Useless Info Dept.

A few tidbits on that classic, in which Mark Buehrle and Ryan Franklin threw every pitch (almost all of which seemed to be strikes):
It was the fastest nine-inning game since Sept. 30, 1984 (also 1:39) -- Pascual Perez (Braves) vs. Greg Booker (Padres).
There hasn't been a game played in less than 1:39 since Sept. 28, 1982 (1:33) -- Jim Clancy (Blue Jays) vs. Frank Viola (Twins).
There was one walk in the game -- issued by Buehrle. And Franklin ran only two three-ball counts all day.
All three hits allowed by Buehrle came from that relentless Ichiro Suzuki. And according to the Elias Sports Bureau, he's only the third hitter in the last 16 seasons to get all the hits in some pitcher's complete-game three-hitter. The others: Shawn Green off Kevin Appier (May 12, 1999) and Todd Walker off Rolando Arrojo (April 30, 1998).
And the Mariners' trusty public-relations crew figured out that if you subtracted commercial breaks, Buehrle and Franklin got 51 outs in 65 minutes and 35 seconds.

* * * * *
Gio Gonzalez has worn out his welcome from Sally League hitters. After 4 games, it's pretty clear that he outclasses the competition. Take a look at his McCarthy-like line so far.

W  L   ERA  G    IP   H  R  ER  HR  BB  SO
2  1  1.23  4  22.0  11  4   3   0   6  38

The Sox were reluctant to move McCarthy up the chain too quickly at first, but I don't think they'll be as hesitant with Gonzalez. When he was drafted, an unidentified voice on the White Sox end of the conference call said "he could start in Kanny right now." The Sox knew what they were getting a year ago, so it shouldn't take them as long to recognize his dominance against the league is not just an example of small sample size.

* * * * *
Michael Lewis, of Moneyball fame, has a great piece in the New York Times Magazine on steroids(only a little) and the tale of two minor leaguers. (Bugmenot - registration alternative) I love reading the NYT Magazine on Sundays. There's always at least one article that I read, on a subject that I otherwise would have never paid any attention to, but because it's in the NYT Magazine I give it a read. I'm rarely disappointed.

Joltin' Joe

2005-04-21T16:11:00.001-05:00

With their second victory over the Tigers in 18 hours, the Sox improved to 12-4 on the season, their best start since 1935. Mark Buehrle didn't appear to have nearly the stuff or command that he had in his last outing against the Mariners. The offensive hero of the game was Scott Podsednik. Sure he only went 1-5, but he made the one count, driving in the tying and winning runs in the 7th inning.

* * * * *
Joe Crede extended his league leading hit streak to a career high 12 games. He's 15-40 during the streak for a .375 average, raising his overall average to .296.

* * * * *
Sox batters took 3 walks on Thursday to raise their season total to 25 in 16 games. The next lowest total by any team is Seattle, at 37. Meanwhile, the pitching staff has allowed 50 free passes. They've been able to keep runs off the board(3.35 ERA) by avoiding the longball (just 12 in 16 games) and stellar defense.

* * * * *
Do you think Dmitri Young has learned his lesson yet? Since making the statement, the Tigers have dropped 7 of their last 10 games, including going 0-5 against those teams that "he meant no disrespect to."

Dear Dmitri,

None taken. Thanks for the accommodations in Detroit.

Signed,
Twins & White Sox

* * * * *
Magglio Ordonez has once again fled the country in search of medical advice. He was in Montreal to see a hernia specialist, who couldn't find a hernia.

"The doctor was not 100 percent willing to say it was a hernia," Dombrowski said. "He still wants some other tests to be done."

It's amazing to me how much this mirrors the knee issue. I really hope it's not something serious (read: cancer), but secretly I had hoped that he would go down, or just plain suck, and saddle spend-til-we-win Illitch with a terrible contract. Right now, I'd just settle for sucking. It's not fun to see anyone go down.

* * * * *
Despite his three quick outs for the save today, I have absolutely no confidence in Shingo Takatsu right now. He needs to be ahead in the count, and maybe getting a little help on the low strike from the umps, to be really effective. He's not doing either right now. The 1-2-3 9th today in Detroit was more a product of the Tigers' hitters being to anxious and swinging at pitches out of the zone than of Shingo pitching well.

That being said, it was a well timed move by Ozzie Guillen to get him into a save situation in a tight game right away. The Tigers had three straight righties due up, in the ninth, and as a team, they hadn't faced Shingo since going 1-2-3 in garbage time back on September 30th of last year.

Having 3 (possibly 4) guys in the pen who can be interchanged to get the save is a nice luxury to have. Plenty of teams have gone the closer-by-committee route and they have been almost universally unsuccessful. The difference between those teams and this White Sox team is that most teams went to the closer-by-committee out of necessity. Translation: they had a poor bullpen. The White Sox have a good bullpen. The stats don't exactly bear that out currently, putting the Sox pen in the middle of the MLB pack with a 4.66ERA. You'll remember that Luis Vicaino was hung out to dry by Ozzie Guillen because he burned the pen; subtract that outing, and the pen's ERA is down to 3.47.

2005-04-21T00:37:00.000-05:00

This is a White Sox blog, and it will remain one, but I had to get something off my chest. I'll write about Garland's excellent outing tomorrow after the game.

* * * * *
By now you've seen the clip of Gary Sheffield attempting to shove a fan. This is the same fan who was, depending on who you believe, going for a ball, or deliberately trying to harm Sheffield. The fan was disciplined, losing his tickets for the rest of the season.

Message sent. MLB to fans: Don't mess with players. Don't interfere with balls in play. Don't even appear to be messing with players. Penalties will be steep.

Good, I hate dipshit fans. The less of them at the ballpark, the better. The problem, at least as it seems to me, is in Bud Selig and MLB's treatment of Gary Sheffield. Quoting Selig:

"We do not condone any interaction between fans and players whether initiated by either fans or players." "I am pleased that Gary Sheffield showed restraint in not overreacting to the improper and clearly aggressive action of the fan in question."

Message sent: Star players don't worry. You'll actually get a commendation for "restraint" so long as you don't do anything too harmful.

The incident at Fenway was eerily similar to one last year involving Milton Bradley. A fan threw a bottle at Bradley, who's known worldwide to be volatile, and he reacted almost exactly like Sheffield did. He confronted the fan, but didn't get into an altercation, slamming the plastic bottle on the ground. MLB's ruling? Five game suspension, in the middle of a pennant race.

To me the hypocrisy is clear. Bradley's incident occurred before both the Frankie Francisco affair and the NBA's Ron Artest mess. It wasn't anything major, but warranted a suspension. MLB acted accordingly. Sheffield's incident occurred after all of that, and even though it was remarkably similar to Bradley's case, no action will be taken against Sheffield.

To me, this isn't just a case of MLB showing favoritism; it's a case where they can show selective enforcement of non-existent league rules. It's a case where they actually let the NBA's suspension do the deterring for them. You know Ron Artest, Frankie Francisco, and Milton Bradley, were in the back of Sheff's mind as soon as he calmed down and realized what had happened. You could actually argue that Sheff didn't go into the stands because of the penalties handed down by David Stern and the NBA. I don't think Sheff had time to think about Artest's suspension before he was shoving the fan, but you could argue that he did, if that's what floats your boat.

The penalty against Sheff didn't have to be steep, a few games at most. It just had to be a deterrent. Instead, Selig and MLB have, much like the steroid issue, turned blind eye on something that obviously needs to be dealt with. Every athlete needs to be subject to the same penalties for their actions. This applies to the steroid policy too, which won't be validated in fans' eyes until it actually catches a player they've heard of before.

Suspend Sheffield, even if just for a game, and catch a "name" player with the steroid policy, and you just might instill confidence in the game, Bud. Status quo won't cut it anymore.

* * * * *
Finally, someone with more time on their hands than me dug through the baseball record books to find the last 99 minute baseball game. I can't really give any specific person credit for finding this info, but to whomever had the arduous task of digging through box scores over at the Elias Sports Bureau, thank you. Via Yahoo! (AP report)

When the Chicago White Sox beat the visiting Seattle Mariners 2-1 Saturday in 1 hour, 39 minutes, it was the fastest nine-inning game in the major leagues in 21 years, since the Atlanta Braves beat the San Diego Padres 4-3 on Sept. 30, 1984, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. That game, at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium on the final day of the regular season, also took 99 minutes.

21 years is a long time. -- I'd be willing to bet about half of the people who read this site haven't seen their 21st birthday, just for comparison's sake. -- Now get to work and find me the last game that was faster done in under 99 minutes. You've got a head start; it was sometime before September 30th, 1984. Chop chop.

Speaking of well pitched games, it should come as no surprise as to who has the two best pitched games in the AL so far.

See you in four months

2005-04-20T00:16:00.000-05:00

There have been 3 complete games pitched against the Sox this season, all of them have been complete game losses. That pretty much tells you how this season is going so far on the southside. If the opposing pitcher is dealing, they've been able to scratch out a couple of runs, keep the other team off the board, and come away with the victory.

The team OBP is terrible. They're not hitting much. The closer situation is shaky at best. But, as the new marketing campaign says, only one stat matters -- W.

I'm not going to complain. 10-4 is tough to beat, especially when you go 4-1 against your chief rivals in the process.

* * * * *
Gamer. There's no other word that describes El Duque so concisely. He's 2-0 vs. the Twins, allowing just one run in 13 innings pitched. You'd think he'd have some dominant numbers against them. But that's just it; he's been hit around pretty good on both occasions. He's been in tough spots, and hasn't backed down. He's gotten the key double play, the clutch strikeout, whenever he really needed it. In a word, Gamer.

  IP   H  ER  BB  K  WHIP  ERA  FIP
18.0  24   5   5  9  1.65 2.50 3.92

Those peripherals aren't going to impress anyone. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, is a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible (BB, HR, K, and HBP) and is used to approximate what their ERA should be regardless of the defense behind them. El Duque is outpitching his peripherals. Some would say lucky -- If it was Contreras outpitching his peripherals I would say lucky -- but El Duque knows what he's doing out there.

* * * * *
It wont show up in the box score. The announcers on TV and radio didn't draw any attention to it, but there was one play that just might have shown that the Sox really are a little different from last year. When Joe Crede tagged up on a sac fly off the bat of Scott Podsednik, it was clear that he had his sights set on Joe Mauer. There really wasn't a play, as Mauer moved forward to catch a late Torii Hunter throw, but Crede still took a little shot at Mauer. He could have gone in harder, but it was still nice to see. It's a step in the right direction. Anyone who watched Sox games last year can remember Frank Thomas sliding into home for an out at least three different times like his grandmother was the catcher.

Update: As I head to bed, I can't claim to be the only one who noticed. Rick Morissey, and Mark Gonzales both write about it.

Quoting Crede: "If [Mauer] is going to block the plate, I'm going to do whatever I can to score."

* * * * *
I know he's not stopping by this blog between innings, but it was nice to see Ozzie take my advice, and pull Shingo as soon as he saw Joe Mauer. It's pretty clear there's a "closer controversy" on the Southside. Ozzie's postgame comments(which I can't find a link for) essentially said as much, insinuating they would be situation-by-situation decisions as to who would get the save opportunity, which when you think about it, is a very sabrmetric way to use your bullpen. That is assuming you actually play the right matchups.

* * * * *
Like I said yesterday, We won't see the Twins for another 118 days. To give you a better idea of how long that's going to be, here's a list of the teams they play between now and then. Number of series in parentheses.

Detroit (4)
Kansas City (4)
Oakland (2)
Toronto (2)
Tampa Bay (2)
Baltimore (2)
Texas (2)
Cubs (2)
Angels (2)
Cleveland (2)
Colorado
San Diego
Arizona
Dodgers
Boston (2)
Seattle
New York

* * * * *
Tadihito Iguchi is a professional hitter. He's going to have his ups and downs, but he works the count, and can foul off pitches he doesn't like. He's the only White Sox hitter who seems to be looking for his pitch instead of trying to put the ball in play as quickly as possible. Mark Buehrle got a lot of pub, from both mainstream media and me, for his quick game on Saturday, but I don't think you can discount how much the Sox hitters helped by swinging early and often, and failing to take a pitch.

Defensively, he's been in the middle of a number good double plays. His range, however, is not what we've been accustomed to on the southside. As I said over at BTF's game chatter "passed a diving Iguchi" has replaced "nice pick by Uribe/Harris" in the White Sox broadcaster's lexicon.

* * * * *
The Sox start a two game series at Detroit Wednesday. The Tigers aren't worried. They only split a series against the Royals, who are a joke in their own town. Let's just hope the Sox have Dmitri's comments pinned up in the locker room. Jon Garland (2-0, 3.46) takes the hill against Wilfredo Ledezma (1-0, 3.75).

* * * * *
I swear to God, if Timo sees any playing time tomorrow I'm going to puke. There's absolutely no reason for him to have almost 5 times the number of at-bats as Ross Gload.

* * * * *From Gleeman (via Hardball Times)

With an MLB-leading seven homers in 14 games so far this year, Paul Konerko now has 48 homers in his last 162 games, dating back to the last season. Prior to that, he had hit 45 homers in his last 294 games, including just 18 in 137 games in 2003.

* * * * *
B-E-N
B-E-N-A-N-A-S
Straying from the baseball theme that I try and stick to here, how 'bout them Bulls?

The Knicks hate Ben Gordon
First time in the playoffs since 1998
First winning record since '98
Home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs
Scott Skiles for coach of the year
Ben Gordon as a serious RoY contender -- I don't think he'll win, but he should get the 6th man award to wipe his tears away with. -- It would be a traveshamockery(that's so 2004) if he doesn't win at least one of them.
Tyson Chandler has got to be one of the most underappreciated players in the league.
They've got a tough match up with the Wizards, having to go into the series without two of their starting frontline in Luol Deng and Eddie Curry. Hopefully they make it interesting.
I don't think they'll be able to win a series, even with home court, that's why I'm writing this now. It was a nice ride. They surprised a lot of people, including me. Hopefully they can surprise some more, and advance deep in the playoffs, without 40% of their starters.

Boom goes the "dino"-mite

2005-04-19T00:36:00.000-05:00

One more game against the Twins later today, and they disappear from the Sox radar until August -- August 16th to be exact. -- They disappear for almost four months. These will be two completely different teams when they meet again in 118 days(yes, I counted). There will be trades, and injuries, and I'm sure they will have swapped places in the standings a few times. With that said, the Sox would love to send a little message -- one that they seem to send every year around this time -- that they aren't going to lie down, at least not until later in the season.

Onto some thoughts from last night's game...

* * * * *
Joe Crede looked great. Sure the HR was nice, but he hit 21 of them last season, and he looked like crap for most of it. I was particularly impressed with his play in the field. I've felt that Joe's defense has become overrated, largely because if you aren't hitting, well, you must have a good glove, right? Well tonight Joe made a number of nice defensive plays. Starting that DP in the first, and the final out of the game are the ones that stick out in my mind.

* * * * *
Remember when I was worried about the health of Jurassic? Yeah, I'm not anymore. That's not to say his future health isn't still a concern; he answered all questions about his present health with a towering shot off of Kyle Lohse (Why is that pronounced lowshe?) in the 6th inning, his second of the game off Lohse.

* * * * *
I seriously hate games when I see the name Contreras listed at starting pitcher. For as maddening as Freddy Garcia has been in his first three starts, he doesn't even come close to matching The Count's sloth with men on base. Contreras is like a life-size bobble head doll when he's on the mound, constantly shaking his seemingly empty head.

I thought I knew what a balk was, but after last night, I have no clue. Actually I still think I know what a balk is, I just didn't see one last night.

* * * * *
Note to Ozzie: DON'T LET SHINGO PITCH TO JOE MAUER. He's the guy with the sideburns that apparently came free with the signing bonuses given out in 2001. Mauer is now 3 for 3 lifetime off of Shingo, with 3 extra base hits, 2 of them HRs. Those two homeruns represent over 25% of his major league homeruns, and 12.5% of all of his professional homeruns. IN THREE AT BATS. Stop pitching to him.

* * * * *
Even though my Baseball Tonight viewing has fallen dramatically in the past couple of seasons, I've still been left feeling completely empty by the new Trifecta set up. There's hardly enough time to even give the scores from every game, let alone highlights or insightful analysis. You would think that the two teams with the best record in the AL facing off would be central to the show. Instead the game receives just a passing mention. They did focus on the Orioles and Nationals getting shelled though, so they're starting to creep westward. I suppose it is an improvement over last week when the Twins/Sox game didn't even warrant a mention.

* * * * *
I'm going to keep bidding on this, and when I win, I'm going to make him a D-Rays fan.

* * * * *
Just in case you didn't quite get one of the references in the title. This should explain it. Last Saturday when Scott van Pelt dropped a "boom goes the dynamite" in the opening minutes of Masters coverage, I completely lost it.

Spam-A-Lot

2005-04-18T15:35:00.000-05:00

It's not often that you'll find a blogger actually soliciting spam, but that's exactly what I'm about to do. It's been a while since I went searching through the links section of other blogs that are daily reads in search of new material. Last night I came to the conclusion that I needed to find some new reading fodder. So I'm asking you to direct me to some blogs that may have escaped my view.

Here's a link to my bloglines subscriptions so that you can see what I'm already reading daily.

It doesn't have to be baseball related. In fact, I'm probably looking for things outside the baseball realm. Go ahead and spam away in the comments section. You won't get this opportunity anywhere very often.

I'm in the process of redoing the entire links section, so you guys with White Sox blogs, or anyone who wants to be linked here, post a link to your site in the comments. I can guarantee your readership will go up by at least one -- me -- for an entire week.

* * * * *It's only fair, since I'm asking you for a couple of your favorite sites, that I give you a few of mine.

McCovey Chronicles has quickly become one of my favorite baseball blogs. Grant has a great writing style, that makes up for the fact that I really don't care about the Giants.

The Chicago Media Monitor is the most recent non-baseball addition to my blogroll. Steven Skaggs covers pretty much everything relating to the media in Chicago and beyond, with an emphasis on sports. Today's entry is a great example of what makes it one of my favorites. He dissects the fallacies in Greg Couch's recent column dismissing the Sox hot start. The comment section is also usually well worth the read.

And finally, just to show you that I read a wide array of topics, I give you Puppetgirl, my favorite sex blog. She is an aspiring writer, and it shows. She can make even the most innocuous sexual encounter a great read. Her style is simple, frank, and self-aware, which is what is often lacking in other I'm-trying-to-make-this-sound-as-sexy-as-possible sex blogs. This was probably the first blog that ever became a regular read for me, about 2 years ago, maybe longer.

* * * * *
I'm going to be extremely disappointed if there's not at least 20 comments with links for me to explore in the next couple of days.

Weekend Musings

2005-04-17T23:17:00.000-05:00

I haven't chimed in at all about the Mariners series. It was a beautiful weekend -- the best of the year -- there's no reason to be sitting inside at a computer.

* * * * *
Friday night, Jon Garland flirted with perfection, retiring the first 19 batters he faced before issuing a walk to former White Sox top prospect Jeremy Reed.

The most impressive thing I have noticed in Garland's two starts is how sparingly he is using his curveball. Two weeks ago, if you told me Garland hardly threw a curveball in two consecutive outings, I would have told you that he had gotten shelled. The curveball is the one pitch that, on the rare occasion that he can command it, elevates Garland from your typical league average starter up to bona fide front of the rotation pitcher. That he hasn't needed to use it much in his first two outings (both quality starts) bodes well for the rest of the season.

I can't be certain -- surely others have noticed this too -- but Garland appears to be getting more movement on his fastball/sinker. The movement isn't really a sharp downward turn, but rather a tailing motion, in on righties and away to lefties. He was busting righties inside with it early and often, frustrating 2004 NL HR champ Adrian Beltre in particular.

As I noted last weekend, he will be successful if he continues to pitch like that at the Cell. The increased movement may be just enough to actually get the GB/FB ratio you would expect out of a "sinkerballer." ** Take heed, small sample sizes ahead. ** Garland's GB/FB ratio is currently 1.85, with 24 GB to 13 FB. That doesn't include a few turf job infield singles that would have been groundball outs in all but 2 cement bowls masquerading as baseball stadiums.

* * * * *
Blogger Sucks -- They've implemented an auto save feature which simply saves the first 3K of my post, and deletes the rest of it. How the fuck is that useful to anyone? Mozilla was stable enough for me to not have to save every 10 minutes, or write in a separate text editor, and I could write for an hour, looking up different stats in multiple tabs and windows, without ever having to worry about a crash. Now, since they've implemented this wonderful new feature, I've lost three fricken posts.

* * * * *
I really want to rip Ozzie's bullpen usage on Friday. Had I written a post immediately following the game, it would have been an explicative laced tirade that questioned almost every move he mad during the game. Yesterday, I read this post by Vince over at Exile in Wrigleyville, and I softened a little.

If I was manager, I would have left Vizcaino in for at least one more batter. The tying run was still only in the on deck circle. I had hoped that Ozzie had learned from the finale of the opening series that he can't burn through his bullpen without consequences. Apparently he hasn't. Thankfully, Dustin Hermanson, the heir apparent to the closer's throne, was able to put out the fire that Ozzie was busy throwing gas on in the form of Damaso Marte and Shingo Takatsu.

* * * * *
I don't know if I can use enough superlatives to do justice to Mark Buehrle's performance in Saturday's lightning round of a baseball game. They say one of the best things about baseball is you never know what you might see when you go to the park. Well Saturday, if you blinked, you might have missed it. Buehrle teamed with Ryan Franklin in a pitcher's duel that lasted just 99 minutes including TV breaks. Subtract the 17 two minute and five second commercial breaks and the actually playing time checked in at just three and a half ticks over an hour. After the game, Ozzie called out the lack of recognition Buehrle receives compared to two oft-injured hurlers 8 miles north.

* * * * *
Sunday's game was maddening right from the start, with Ichiro! leading off with a his first HR of the season. Garcia put himself in an 2-0 hole, in what would become a recurring theme on the day. In his first two starts Garcia was able to settle down after looking shaky early on. The fifth inning proved to be Freddy's undoing. Having already allowed a run, Garcia sat with a tied score and two outs. Thanks to Jermaine Dye's lackadaisical play in the outfield, Garcia helped turn two innocuous singles into the two go-ahead runs for the M's as he let 4 straight reach base. It was exactly the type of outing that has pushed Jon Garland to the low man on the starter's totem pole.

* * * * *
How bad is Tim0! Perez that he makes me long for Scott Podsednik back in the leadoff spot?

* * * * *
Two weeks in, finds the Sox in first place
special thanks to rapid games from our ace
Twins comin' to town,
let's take 'em down
and run away with the division race.

Win probability -- 4/15/2005

2005-04-16T00:14:00.000-05:00

I tried to post this over at LookoutLanding, but I couldn't get the formatting right. Bear with me Sox fans, I'm going to put off ranting about Ozzie Guillen's ridiculous bullpen usage until tomorrow. It's not like there's many readers on the weekend anyways. The only thing worse than sitting inside on a beautiful weekend reading a poorly trafficked White Sox blog is sitting inside on a perfectly good Friday night writing a poorly trafficked White Sox blog.

Team    Player       Off   Pitch   Field     WPA

M's     Boone      0.123   0.000   0.000   0.123
        Ibanez     0.027   0.000   0.000   0.027
        Thornton   0.000   0.019   0.000   0.019
        Reed       0.010   0.000   0.000   0.010
        Winn      -0.009   0.000   0.000  -0.009
        Nelson     0.000  -0.013   0.000  -0.013
        Valdez    -0.030   0.000   0.000  -0.030
        Beltre    -0.045   0.000   0.000  -0.045
        Olivo     -0.051   0.000   0.000  -0.051
        Ichiro!   -0.052   0.000   0.000  -0.052
        Pinero     0.000  -0.129   0.000  -0.129
        Dobbs     -0.146   0.000   0.000  -0.146
        Spezio    -0.204   0.000   0.000  -0.204
M's Total         -0.377  -0.123   0.000  -0.500

Sox     Garland    0.000   0.308   0.000   0.308
        Hermanson  0.000   0.268   0.000   0.268
        Uribe      0.209   0.000   0.000   0.209
        Rowand     0.058   0.000   0.000   0.058
        Crede      0.057   0.000   0.000   0.057
        Dye        0.047   0.000   0.000   0.047
        Vizcaino   0.000   0.037   0.000   0.037
        Timo!     -0.030   0.000   0.000  -0.030
        Everett   -0.038   0.000   0.000  -0.038
        Konerko   -0.039   0.000   0.000  -0.039
        Marte      0.000  -0.045   0.000  -0.045
        Iguchi    -0.069   0.000   0.000  -0.069
        Pierzynsk -0.072   0.000   0.000  -0.072
        Takatsu    0.000  -0.191   0.000  -0.191
Sox Total          0.123   0.377   0.000   0.500

As I've stated before, WPA often tells us exactly what we already knew intuitively. Garland had a perfect game into the 7th; he's obviously the player of the game. Jaun Uribe hit a key HR and had 4 RBI; he's gotta be the most valuable hitter. Well guess what, that's exactly what the data shows.

For the M's, Boone obviously had the best game, driving in all 4 runs. But you already knew that.

So why do I bother if it just tells us what we already know? Well first of all, the graph is a pretty damn cool representation of the game. Also, I've decided to log every game for the Sox this season, so why not share?

I'm sure some of you M's fans are asking yourself, "-.031, but what does that mean?" The simple answer is that player decreased his teams' chance of winning by 3.1% through his plays in the game. WPA isn't the next "it" metric, it's similar to clutch stats for hitters, in that it'll probably fluctuate from year to year. Nevertheless, I'm interested in comparing the White Sox season totals, so I'm going to continue to log games.

* * * * *
WPA can be useful for evaluating relievers, becuase they enter the game in high leverage situations. In conjuction with traditional stats, WPA can help paint a better picture of not just how a player performed, but in how tough of a situation he performed. In other words, it could show that a properly used middle reliever, one that was brought into tight games with men on base, actually effects the outcome of the game more than the closer who comes into face the last three batters with 3-run lead.

Shadenfreude

2005-04-15T17:28:00.000-05:00

Magglio Ordonez will be placed on the DL, and should be out 4-6 weeks following hernia surgery.

It's unclear whether Maggs will seek a second opinion, or flee the country to get the diagnosis that ~~will make him the most money~~ he is happiest with.

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

2005-04-14T23:41:00.000-05:00

Two steps forward, one step back. That's been the theme so far this season. The Sox have opened all three series this season by winning the first two games. They then failed to close out the sweep, finding a way to lose on each occasion. It's tough to complain about winning three series in a row, but at some point this team needs to show a killer instinct and close one of these out.

I guess Konerko is out of his funk now. He was smoking the ball tonight.

Rowand also looked good tonight, that is until he decided to dive for first base, and may be a little gimpy because of it. Hopefully that's nothing major.

How scary was it watching Carl Everett lying in pain on the warning track? -- I've never been all that concerned about getting Frank back specifically because I felt that Jurassic was going to step up his game and be huge for us in Frank's absence. At this point in the season, Jurassic may be the one player that we can least afford to lose.

Apparently his injury isn't too serious. It was reported as bruised left scapula, and Everett is officially listed as day-to-day. I don't know if I can stress enough how important his health is to the team. -- Who would have thought they'd see that in print last year.

Tonight's game was a perfect illustration of how much defense can effect the outcome of the game. Everett's play, or rather lack thereof, would have been an easy out for Scott Podsednik. As it was, it lead to 2 extra runs.

In the sixth, with runners on 1st and second, a botched... Ok it was really botched.. wheel play let a would-be double play go for not just a hit, but a run scoring single, and two extra runs. I'm not faulting Ozzie for either of his decisions -- playing Everett in left(I actually called for that one), or calling the wheel play -- It just shows how one little decision (or in this case two decisions) can change the whole complexion of the game.

If it wasn't for the pitching and fielding meltdowns tonight, I'd be talking about the stellar play of Willie Harris.

Speaking of injuries, it looks like Scott Podsednik may be held out of another game with a pulled groin.

Dear Dmitri,

STFU

Signed,
The Minnesota Twins

John Sickels, formerly of ESPN's Down on the Farm, now of Minorleagueball.com, has a little blurb about Gio Gonzalez up on his blog.

In other prospect news, Brandon McCarthy got his second start for AAA Charlotte. His line on the evening was nothing impressive.
```
             IP  H  R ER BB  K
McCarthy    4.2  5  3  3  2  5
```
But reading through the game log, he looked(or read, I should say) like his usual self until the 5th inning. With two out in the 5th, he allowed a double which drove in the first run against him, then gave up a HR to the next batter. He was pulled after the dinger. I'm reasonably sure he was pulled because the score was 3-1 bad guys in a 7 inning game due to a double-header.

Zombies!?!? You've got to be kidding me. Everyone knows furries are where it's at.

Tomorrow's matchup
- Jon Garland(1-0, 4.50ERA)
  - Ibanez (37ABs) -- .405/.450/.595
  - Ichiro! (18 ABs) -- .353/.400/.471
  - Boone (17ABs) -- .176/.263/.412
- Joel Pinero(NR)

Numb3rs

2005-04-14T17:45:00.000-05:00

1 - Starts by Ross Gload, after tonight
2 - Rank of the Sox starting staff in MLB with an ERA of 2.80, behind only Florida
3 - Series opening victories
4 - Scott Podsednik stolen bases, in 5 attempts.
5 - Hits for Joe Crede during his recent 4-game hit streak
6 - Quality starts. The most in baseball.
7 - HRs allowed by White Sox pitching
8 - HRs by the White Sox.
9 - Hits allowed for each, Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle, and Jose Contreras, in two starts.
10 - Walks, in 8 games. That's not going to cut it.

Wicked Man

2005-04-14T01:01:00.000-05:00

I'm feelin' kinda lazy tonight. I did another Win Probability log again tonight. The Count did his best to put this game in the crapper early, but he finally settled down, and the Sox were able to scratch their way back into it.

Team    Player       Off   Pitch   Field     WPA

Injuns  Wickman    0.000   0.142   0.000   0.142
        Sizemore   0.110   0.000   0.000   0.110
        Rhodes     0.000   0.110   0.000   0.110
        Hafner     0.061   0.000   0.000   0.061
        Lee        0.000   0.045   0.000   0.045
        Crisp      0.044   0.000   0.000   0.044
        Broussard  0.037   0.000   0.000   0.037
        Peralta   -0.011   0.000   0.000  -0.011
        Cora      -0.048   0.000   0.000  -0.048
        Boone     -0.054   0.000   0.000  -0.054
        Ludwick   -0.119   0.000   0.000  -0.119
        Belliard  -0.138   0.000   0.000  -0.138
        Miller     0.000  -0.160   0.000  -0.160
        Martinez  -0.246   0.000   0.021  -0.225
        Howry      0.000  -0.293   0.000  -0.293
Injuns  Total     -0.364  -0.156   0.021  -0.499

Sox     Crede      0.284   0.000   0.000   0.284
        Hermanson  0.000   0.207   0.000   0.207
        Rowand     0.168   0.000   0.000   0.168
        Vizcaino   0.000   0.153   0.000   0.153
        Marte      0.000   0.104   0.000   0.104
        Everett    0.098   0.000   0.000   0.098
        Pierzynski 0.061   0.000  -0.009   0.052
        Ozuna     -0.001   0.000  -0.003  -0.004
        Uribe     -0.037   0.000   0.015  -0.022
        Perez     -0.024   0.000   0.000  -0.024
        Iguchi    -0.071   0.000   0.000  -0.071
        The Count  0.000  -0.099   0.000  -0.099
        Dye       -0.148   0.000  -0.004  -0.152
        Konerko   -0.194   0.000   0.000  -0.194
Sox     Total      0.135   0.364  -0.001   0.499

Crede got most of his WPA from two plays. In the 7th, he doubled in Rowand off of Matt Miller, and in the 10th he grounded into a fielder's choice that advance Pierzynski to third while not recording an out.

As I said, I'm feelin' lazy, so here's some bullet point thoughts and observations.

The Sox are off to their best start since 1991.

Paul Konerko looks terrible at the plate. In the first five games he looked great. He was taking pitches well. He was driving the ball when he made contact. He was a hitter to be feared. In the sixth game of the season, he had to face Johan Santana. He hasn't looked the same since.

The same thing happened to pretty much the entire team last July after they had to face a string of quality pitchers. Thankfully, the pitching has been good enough to cover for a few guys getting off to slow starts.

I spit Fritos™ all over when I saw Cliff Lee do his best Chuck Knoblauch impersonation. That throw was about 50 feet from first base.

I really like what I've seen from Grady Sizemore. He's been very good while patrolling center field, and as he showed tonight, he can hit a little. Plus he's only 22 years old. He could be a thorn in our side for quite some time.

The bullpen was as advertised tonight. One baserunner in 3.1 innings pitched.

Injury Roundup
- Frank Thomas has been shut down until Monday. He's still got some scar tissue that needs to be broken up in his ankle. He obviously still has pain in the ankle too, otherwise I doubt he would have required a cortisone shot today.
- Scott Podsednik is likely to be held out of tomorrow's game against the Tribe also. Sounds to me like they are just being extra careful with him.
- Carlos Silva may be back a lot sooner than expected. I know one thing... The next time we see him, we better be bunting early to test that knee.
Look for Ross Gload to get his first start of the season Thursday. I'd still like to see Pauly in the line-up. With Pods riding the pine for another game, Everett could be moved to left, and Pauly could draw DH duties for the day.

Dmitri Update -- The Tigers and Indians are now a combined 1-6 against those teams that he "meant no disrespect to." -- I can see Dmitri taking Harold Reynolds' or John Kruk's spot on BBTN when he retires.

Have you seen that Speed Stick commercial with A-Rod? Even if you haven't this should be pretty amusing.

I missed this John Kass article in the tribune yesterday, but you shouldn't. It's kind of a fluff piece, but it's the kind that a Sox fan should enjoy.

Scott Elarton(0-0, 3.38ERA) takes the hill for the Tribe Thursday, while El Duque(1-0, 1.29ERA) gets his second start in a White Sox uniform. The Sox have opened all three series this year 2-0, but have failed to pull off the sweep in the first two.

I couldn't think of anything witty to use as a title for this entry, so I just used the name of the song that was playing when I started writing.

Win Probability Added -- 4/11/2005

2005-04-12T14:53:00.000-05:00

At some point during last season Studes, of Baseball Graphs and The Hardball Times, introduced Win Probability Added in graphical form. I emailed him at the time asking how I could calculate it for Sox games. He explained that it was complicated, and cited some stuff that went way over my head.

The short explanation of Win Probability is fairly intuitive. You probably calculate your own form of it in your head. You know that runs are good and outs are bad, and in close games runs and outs become more valuable at the end of the game because there's less time left in the game. A longer explanation, from Studes, might make this clearer.

Here's the basic idea. An average team, at any point in a game, has a certain likelihood of winning the game. For instance, if you're leading by two runs in the ninth inning, your chances of winning the game are much greater than if you're leading by three runs in the first inning. With each change in the score, inning, number of outs, base situation or even pitch, there is a change in the average team's probability of winning the game.

And that's what leads to this chart. This chart tracks the probability of a Sox victory in yesterday's game.

In addition to being able to track the probabilty of a Sox victory, WPA allows you to track each player individually. Each indiviual out, hit, stolen base, error, etc. adds or subtracts from your likelihood of winning. By tracking each individual play, we can come up with an expression of what each player contributed to the game, positive or negative.

It's possible for a player who goes 1-4 to have a greater WPA than one who goes 2-3 with a HR. This is, as Hawk would say, "don't tell me what you hit. Tell me when you hit it." Who knows, maybe Timo contributed more than I thought last season.

Here is each players win expectancy added, divided into Offense, Pitching, Fielding, and Total.

Team    Player        Off   Pitch   Field     WPA

Indians Hafner      0.151   0.000   0.000   0.151
        Riske       0.000   0.095   0.000   0.095
        Millwood    0.000   0.086   0.000   0.086
        Crisp       0.025   0.000   0.000   0.025
        Ludwick    -0.024   0.000   0.000  -0.024
        Belliard   -0.028   0.000   0.000  -0.028
        Blake      -0.036   0.000   0.000  -0.036
        Cora       -0.068   0.000   0.000  -0.068
        None       -0.073   0.000  -0.006  -0.078
        Broussard  -0.083   0.000   0.000  -0.083
        Hernandez  -0.090   0.000   0.000  -0.090
        Sizemore   -0.124   0.000   0.000  -0.124
        Martinez   -0.176   0.000   0.031  -0.145
        Boone      -0.141   0.000  -0.016  -0.156
Indians Total      -0.669   0.181   0.010  -0.471

Sox     Garcia      0.000   0.399   0.000   0.399
        Podsednik   0.164   0.000   0.088   0.251
        Marte       0.000   0.108   0.000   0.108
        Takatsu     0.000   0.098   0.000   0.098
        Everett     0.078   0.000   0.000   0.078
        Crede       0.063   0.000   0.000   0.063
        Widger      0.029   0.000   0.000   0.029
        Ozuna      -0.053   0.000  -0.024  -0.078
        Rowand     -0.091   0.000   0.000  -0.091
        Dye        -0.097   0.000   0.000  -0.097
        Konerko    -0.099   0.000   0.000  -0.099
        Iguchi     -0.163   0.000   0.000  -0.163
Sox     Total      -0.169   0.605   0.063   0.500

Garcia, obviously, was the games most valuable player, with Podsednik being the most valuable hitter. Like I said, you probably already knew that intuitively. WPA just gives us the data to back it up. It would be interesting to see each players WPA totals at the end of the season. :ph34r:

Freddy Daytime

2005-04-11T18:56:00.000-05:00

As I mentioned earlier, Freddy Garcia is a notoriously good day game pitcher. This was on display again today in Cleveland. After not having the best command on any of his pitches early, he settled down and retired the last 14 batters he faced in order, much like he did in the opener. He runs his record in day games over the past two seasons to 10-0 with a 2.34 ERA. He allowed just six baserunners for the game, and none after the 4th inning, in his 8 innings of work.

Garcia used his experience from Seattle, pitching in a pitcher's park at Safeco field, to his advatage. The wind was blowing in from center field at a reported 25MPH. He used the wind as a tenth defender, knocking down a couple of would-be homeruns off the bat of Travis Hafner.

Former Dodger Alex Cora, brother of White Sox third base coach Joey, played shortstop for the tribe. It was the first time I've ever seen him play at short. I was very impressed. He was smooth, made the routine plays look even simpler than they were, and converted multiple balls that I thought were going for hits into easy outs. If Jhonny Peralta doesn't have a hot start, I would be tempted to play Cora at short all year. He looked that good.

The last three games Ozzie Guillen has used Mr. Zero like he has Takatsu on his fantasy team. Shingo's line for his last two appearances?
```
          IP  H  ER  K  SV
Takatsu  0.2  0   0  2   2
```
He's recorded two of the cheapest saves you'll see all year.

The Sox have an off day tomorrow, and resume a three game set with the Tribe on Wednesday night. Jose Contreras (0-0, 1.50 in 2005; career 1-0, 1.31 vs. CLE) is scheduled to take the hill for the Sox, while Cliff Lee (0-0, 13.50 in 2005; career 2-2, 7.13 vs. CHW) goes to the mound for the Tribe.

Detroit's Dmitri Young thinks the Tribe represent the toughest competition in the AL Central.
"Forget the other teams," Young said to the strains of "Cripple Creek," "it's going to come down to us and Cleveland. No disrespect to the Twins and White Sox, I just feel that club, the doggone Indians, is going to be the thorn in our side."
It should be noted that the Tigers have only played the Royals and Indians, going 2-1 and 1-2 respectively. This is the type of quote that will look really funny at the end of the season when Detroit finishes under .500 for the 12th consecutive season, behind both of those teams he "meant no disrepect" to. Hopefully the Sox have this one placed prominently on the bulletin board in the clubhouse.

Weekend Roundup

2005-04-11T00:39:00.000-05:00

I only watched parts of the games on Friday and Sunday night -- Terrible, I know -- For some reason, even though the Twins games are the ones that I least like to miss, I inevitably have something else scheduled.

4-2 after the first week. I should be pleased, but I'm not really. The Sox were in every game, and could have won them all. Still, 4-2, the best record in the AL, playing two division rivals, I can't really complain.
I was going to complain about the strike zone Santana was getting last night, but I know that's not what cost us the game. It's the hitters job to adjust to the zone being called. It's one thing if you get caught looking at pitches called for strikes outside your zone in the first few innings, it's another if you're stuck looking when the tying run is in the on-deck circle in the 9th. Ozuna, Dye, and Harris all watched balls -- Hawk would call them 'pitcher's pitches' -- get called for strikes after the zone had been established in the previous 6 innings of baseball.

That being said, the last thing Santana needs is help by giving him a wide plate.
Joe Crede did not lose this game. Your third baseman is supposed to try and field every ball hit his way. Just because Uribe looked like he had it covered behind Crede doesn't mean that Joe should let the ball go. This is not the outfield where you have time to call out "I've got it." I'd have more of a problem with Crede if he didn't attempt to make that play.
I've been less than impressed with Iguchi's defense. He's been solid, don't get me wrong, but he doesn't have nearly the range of Harris or Uribe out there. In Sunday's game there was a ball hit back up the middle that Uribe would have easily converted, and Harris would have gotten to it quickly but had trouble with the throw, Iguchi rounded it off instead of backhanding it -- something Kaz Matsui had problems with last season -- and was well late on the throw to first because of it.

On the positive side, Iguchi has started out well with the bat. He actually leads the team in batting average. In an anomaly of sorts, his OBP is less than his AVG at this moment due to a couple of sacrifice flies.
Jon Garland had some nasty movement early on in the game on Saturday. In an interview with Rooney and Farmer, he said he didn't throw many curves in his first outing of the season. I can't say that I noticed, but that probably has something to do with not walking a single batter, as his curveball is the one pitch that his struggles with most to control. He gave up a bunch of hits (10), though a few of them were bloops and turf-jobs, but looked in control for most of the game. If he pitches the same way, peppering the zone with his sinker, he's going to be very effective at USCF. He'll get a lot more groundball outs than he did at the Rollerdome, which because of it's fast infield and hard turf, gave up about 17% more hits than the average ballpark last season.
I learned that sometimes you've got to go against the book.
- Friday -- Konerko (career .079/.125/.158 versus Kyle Lohse) hit a key HR that helped the Sox to victory
- Saturday -- Timo Perez (general suckitude), for some inexplicable reason batting 5th, hit the go-ahead HR off of Brad Radke after popping out weakly to the left side in both of his previous at-bats.
- Sunday -- Carl Everett (.253/.313/389 vs. LHP) goes 2-3 against one of the best pitchers in baseball in the form of left-hander Johan Santana.
Carlos Silva is out until at least the All-Star break due to a torn meniscus. David Gassner will take his place in the rotation. I don't want to get you too excited, because he'll probably come up and go 6-2 with a league average ERA while filling in, but his minor league stats scream "Felix Diaz."
Speaking of 6th starters, I listened to part of Brandon McCarthy's first start of the season over the internet. The announcers were very impressed. He had one helluva line, 7IP 2H 1ER 1BB 10K. Though, Columbus, the Yankee's AAA affiliate, is a rather punchless line-up. It's nice to know that when one of the starters inevitably goes down, there's a viable replacement waiting in the wings.
I'm really pissed off at the schedule makers. There's no need for the Sox to play a night game on get-away day and then have a day game to start the next series. They're going to get into Cleveland after 2AM EDT, and need to be at the park early for a 2PM EDT start.
The Sox do have one thing working for them Monday. Freddy Garcia is a notoriously good day-game pitcher. He was 9-0 with a 2.43 ERA last season, and is 34-10 with a 3.37 ERA in day games on his career.

Out of Sight

2005-04-09T01:09:00.000-05:00

I was stuck at work, so I was unable to actually watch the Sox spoil the Twins home opener, but I was able to catch a few highlights.

El Duque is the new Shingo. He speaks little English, is fun to watch pitch, and gets by on slow pitches with lots of movement. He's gonna be a fan favorite. Let's just hope he can stay healthy. I was ready to send him to the showers after 6.
Hopefully Aaron Rowand's HR in the 6th off of Kyle Lohse is the end to his slow start.
Carl Everett has found his stroke again. -- Although, he should probably ride the pine on Sunday, when the Sox face the tough lefty, and 2004 Cy Young winner, Johan Santana
Konerko got his one hit a year off of Lohse. He made it count. Hopefully the rest of the team can pick him up the next time we face Lohse.
Go visit the Dodgers MLB board. Jose.Valentin. They love that guy. They're talking about making T-Shirts and wearing fake moustaches. I always liked Jose, so it's nice to see that he may have found a home in LA.

* * * * *
Rotoworld is reporting that Jon Garland may be a late scratch for tomorrow.

Jon Garland, who is scheduled to start Saturday, returned to the hotel during Friday's game due to the flu. He's questionable to face the Twins.
If Garland can't go, the White Sox will use Mark Buerhle, who would be working on normal rest.

This really wouldn't be a bad thing. Garland had to warm-up during Thursday's debacle. -- I should say he volunteered to warm-up. He went to Ozzie and said he would 'take one for the team.' -- So, an extra days rest, assuming he's healthy on Sunday, wouldn't be such a bad thing.

I didn't mention it in the last post, but Friday's game was the only one where I liked our pitching match-up. If Mark pitches Saturday in place of Garland, I like our chances. If Garland starts, I hope the offense shows up and we can eke out a win. On Sunday, you can't like anybody's chances when facing Sandy Koufax. Garland's flu could actually help the Sox take this series from the Twins.

* * * * *
Minor League Roundup
**April 7th**

Kannapolis - 4 Asheville - 0
Birmingham - 0 Jacksonville - 7 -- Antoin Gray 2-4, 2B
Charlotte 10 Columbus - 11 -- Brian Anderson 1-4, HR

**April 8th**

Charlotte -2 Columbus - 7 -- Brian Anderson 1-4, HR
Winston Salem - 1 Kingston - 5 -- Wes Whisler, 5IP 2ER 4H 1BB 5K
Kannapolis - 0 Asheville - 5
Barons - 5 Jacksonville - 10 -- Andy Gonzalez?, 3-4

* * * * *
El Duque's pitches
break so slowly, hitters swing
but get only air

Payback...

2005-04-08T14:34:00.000-05:00

Wow, what a day. As if the Sox game wasn't a slap in the face enough, Blogger ate my long post about it, which I wrote in Micro$oft explorer on a friend's computer. Then when I got home late last night, I wasn't feeling well, so I took a couple asprin and played with my dog. Well my dog hurt her back, and I got nauseous from the either the splitting headache or too many asprin. So far today's better, but I won't be able to see tonight's game versus the Twins.

As you would expect, most of my lost post was about Ozzie's bullpen usage. What you might not have expected was for the most part, I defended it. I'm not going to re-hash it again, but I do want to bring up one point I don't think anyone has talked about.

Why does Ozzie have such a quick hook with Neal Cotts? He often seems to get pulled as soon as he puts a runner in scoring position. I realize a lot of you don't like this guy, and that may be with good reason. My question to Ozzie is, 'why have him in the pen if you're going to treat him with kid gloves?'

Cotts is a ground ball pitcher, who struggles with his control. He had the best double play rate of any current White Sox pitcher last season, converting 18% of his opportunies into twin killings. I realize it's a small sample size, but he gives you the best opportunity of anyone in the pen to get out of a jam with the double play. I can't imagine that it does anything for his confidence when he's pulled like he was yesterday. We'll see if it's something Ozzie continues to do, or if he was really that scared of Ronnie Belliard, who was 0-4 vs. Cotts coming into the game. Just something to watch. I think Ozzie learned something yesterday, or at least I hope he learned something yesterday.

* * * * *
Sox @ Twins

Hernandez (2-2, 4.09 ERA vs. MIN) vs. Loshe (7-3, 3.74 ERA vs. CHI)
- I have no idea why Lohse gives us the trouble that he does. Paul Konerko's .079/.125/.158 line against Lohse obviously has something to do with it.
Garland(4-5, 4.53 ERA vs. MIN) vs. Radke (14-11, 4.52 ERA vs. CHI)
Buehrle(13-7, 3.95 ERA vs. MIN) vs. Santana (3-4, 5.40 ERA vs. CHI)

On Top

2005-04-07T01:20:00.000-05:00

Looks pretty good, doesn't it?

I could get used to those standings. Only 160 more to go... And there's the rub. It's a damn long season. You're going to have some games like the last two when the breaks seem to fall your way, and you're going to have those where you can't catch one to save your life. It all evens out in the end.

Two one-run victories seems like a good omen, but remember, the Sox started similarly last season with an 11-1 record in one-run contests early on, only to fall to 28-18 in that category at the end of the season. I'm not trying to be a buzzkill here, but these early games are so absolute. If these two games had broken the other way, fans and media alike would be lamenting about the Sox woeful offense and clamoring for better pitching. It's only two games. Still, it does feel pretty damn good.

Game notes

Garcia was really struggling with his command. Maybe it was just accentuated because Buehrle's incredible opening day performance was still etched on my brain. Whatever it was, it wasn't pretty. But it's results that count, and 6IP and 2ER are results that I'll take from any outing.
Millwood was not impressive at all, and despite that, he was still able to keep the Sox bats in check.
In the first 16 innings of the season, the Sox scored just one run. In the 17th inning of the season they scored 4, using only one out.
Jose Contreras takes the hill for the Sox in the finale about 12 hours from now. Cleveland is apparently one of the teams that Contreras like pitching against. He had his head on straight for both games versus them last season, recording a 1.23 ERA in 14.1 IP.
Cliff lee is the Tribe's scheduled hurler. He was flat out terrible after the ASB last season, 7.91 ERA. He was similarly roughed up by the Sox on the season to the tune of a 7.09 ERA.

Sox Radio on the Move?

2005-04-06T14:12:00.000-05:00

According to Todd Greenstein's column in today's Trib, the Sox have a deal in the works with 670-AM to move broadcast rights for their games from the current location at ESPN 1000. This does not come as a suprise.

Monday featured a cold interview with Jerry Reinsdorf on Carmen and Silvy's show. Then yesterday, Mac, Jurko and Harry were denied the opportunity to replay the interview either in part, or in it's entirety.

* * * * *
According to Joe Cowley(no not that Joe Cowley), who we welcome back from a fight with cancer, Marte's beaning of Carlos Lee in spring training was indeed intentional. I suspected as much. Cowley writes:

Damaso Marte said all the right things, simply describing it as an inside pitch that got away.
But his White Sox teammates and the coaching staff knew it was so much more.

When the left-handed reliever drilled former teammate Carlos Lee in a spring training meeting with Milwaukee on March 23, it was payback for two years worth of frustration.

Lee was a bully to Marte. He often ridiculed Marte's poor upbringing in the Dominican Republic, would sneak up and slap Marte on the back of the neck and would make Marte the butt of his jokes. In other words, Lee was a participant in the kind of selfish behavior the Sox tried to distance themselves from during the past offseason.

"We all knew it was coming," one Sox player said of the Cactus League incident, "and it will probably happen again."

* * * * *
Update: I was listening to Mac, Jurko, and Harry on the way to dinner tonight, and they said that they have been given the go ahead by the suits to play the now infamous JR interview. They will replay the full interview during Thursday's show. (listen here)

5 Q's Roundup

2005-04-06T01:59:00.000-05:00

Last week, I discussed a couple of points from the Chicago White Sox preview over at Hardball Times, which was easily the best Sox preview I've read. Tonight, I came across the Cleveland Indians preview. Partly because the Sox are playing them and partly because of the recent string of experts picking the Injuns over not only the Sox, but the Twins also, I actually decided to read it. Once again, I was not disappointed.

The guys at THT have done a great job on these previews. I know because I actually took the time to read them. OK, I didn't read the Royals one, but c'mon.

So there's the AL Central previews. Read 'em if you want.

Seriously, go read 'em. You can just skim the Royals.

Nostradamus I am not

2005-04-05T19:20:00.000-05:00

Since I made a bunch of predictions over the weekend, I thought I would take a look back at some other predictions I had made about the Sox off-season activities.

Here is the post with my predictions. (listed with commentary below)

1) Before the Monday morning paper hits your doorstep, the Sox will have inked Omar Vizquel to a 2-year deal, with an option for a 3rd, vastly overpaying in the process. This is not a bold prediction, I know, but it's not like there are any other SS available this year. (Renteria, Cabrera, Garciaparra, CoughGuzmansucksCough, Valentin, Counsell) Vizquel will be the first SS signed. The market will set itself in a week or two to be much lower than what the sox paid.

I wasn't even close on this one, but all indications before the signings started were that Vizquel was a White Sox. Vizquel's deal didn't end up being the albatross that it originally appeared to be, but that could change. I applaud Kenny for balking when he asked for a 3rd year.

2) The Sox will not trade Paul Konerko. KW does a lot of dangling of Konerko again, but finds that the market isn't as strong as he'd like it. Konerko deals with the situation well, and has another good season on the Southside, his last.

50/50 on this one, I guess. Konerko was never really shopped, though he probably was behind closed doors. He has handled everything very well, including his present contract situation. He has indicated he would like to come back.

3) Carlos Lee is shipped along with $2M to Anaheim in exchange for Jose Guillen and a mid-level pitching prospect.

I think I got a little too specific here. I knew Carlos was gone, I knew Jose was gone; it seemed like a good guess.

4) The Sox get out-bid by the Yankees for the services of Eric Milton. They win the bidding, over the Yankees, for Russ Ortiz. He get's a deal that pays him only $6M in '05, but a guaranteed $9M in '06, and has two option years.

Even the Yankees balked at Milton's outrageuos contract demands. Ortiz signed a similar deal with the D'backs (He pitches vs. Mad Dog tonight). Neither player recieved any interest from the Sox. Good job again Kenny.

5) They do nothing else. Esteban Loaiza is talked to briefly, but when the word bullpen is brought up he quickly signs his deal with Tampa Bay.

Loaiza's only serious interest came from the Nats, and once again, KW wanted nothing to do with a pitcher I thought he would be all over.

Perhaps the most revealing thing from that post was my predicted opening day roster. -- Shown below with the actual opening day roster as a comparison.

Predicted                           Opening Day Roster
SP - Garcia                         SP - Buehrle
SP - Buehrle                        SP - Garcia
SP - Ortiz (Russ, not Ramon)        SP - Contreras
SP - Contreras                      SP - Hernandez
SP - Garland                        SP - Garland

CL - Shingo                         CL - Shingo
RP - Marte                          RP - Marte
RP - Politte                        RP - Hermanson
RP - Cotts                          RP - Vizcaino
RP - Adkins                         RP - Politte
RP - Diaz                           RP - Cotts

1B - Konerko/Gload                  1B - Kong/Gload
DH - Thomas/Gload/Everett           DH - Everett/Thomas/Gload
2B - Uribe/Harris                   2B - Iguchi/Harris/Ozuna
SS - Vizquel/Valdez                 SS - Uribe/Ozuna/Harris
3B - Crede/Uribe                    3B - Crede/Ozuna/Uribe
LF - Everett/Perez/Gload            LF - Podsednik/Everett/Perez
CF - Rowand/Perez                   CF - Rowand/Podsednik/Perez
RF - Guillen/Gload                  RF - Dye/Perez/Gload/Ozuna
C  - Davis/Burke                    C  - Pierzynski/Widger

The most glaring differences are the Catcher postition, and the pen. The guys who I thought would break camp with the Sox as catchers will open on the same team on Friday, for AAA Charlotte. There's also 2 members of the pen who I thought would be with the team opening in Charlotte. (Diaz is actually on the DL, but why quibble.)

I think what this illustrates is two things, 1) I wasn't very confident that we would put a competitive team on the field, and 2) Kenny Williams did one helluva job this off-season.

I know it's cool to bash Kenny, after all 40% of the Pirates opening day staff is from one trade, and he was the butt of the joke in Moneyball, but he had a very creative off-season. Even though I may not have agreed with all the moves, I think he did a good job with the resources available. He reshaped the team in a form that is more likely to suceed under the current manager's style, and without really adding much payroll.

Kudos Kenny. It's probably the last time you hear it from me for a while.

Fenced in?

2005-04-05T02:37:00.000-05:00

Buried amidst positive steroid test results, twin victories for Chicago's baseball teams, and wall-to-wall Illini coverage is the revelation that the Sox "thought" about moving the fences back this year. As most of you know USCF played as the most homer-friendly park in baseball last season, so moving the fences back sounds like a good idea.

The reality is they had nowhere to go. There's only a few feet between the outfield wall and the first row of seats in the new configuration of USCF, and moving home plate back would eliminate foul ground both down the lines and behind the plate. That would probably neutralize any advantage gained by the few extra feet it would take to hit a HR.

While it would appear to me that the main reason for not moving the fences would be physical, Kenny Williams indicated that it was psychological also.

Williams feared White Sox hitters would believe they were thought to be weak, and he certainly didn't want to convey that impression. In fact, Williams bristles at the notion that his new-look team will suffer from a power shortage.

There's also conflicting reports as to the effects of the new FUNdamentals deck in left field.

Buehrle said he heard in batting practice that "the ball was not flying out of here like it did last year. I don't know if it's that FUNdamentals deck in left field, but [one player] said he hit a couple of balls that should have gone out, and I said thanks, because that means the ball's not going to be flying out of here like it did last year."

Konerko said he thought the ball was "jumping" in batting practice, unusual when the wind is blowing off the lake as it does in April.

"If anything," he said, "that [FUNdamentals] structure should help [home runs], especially if the wind is blowing in."

Part of me wonders why van Dyck edited out the player who thought the ball wasn't jumping. Was is just because it was hearsay, or were there other motives?

Predictapalooza

2005-04-05T01:30:00.000-05:00

Note: This entry was, for the most part, written intermittently this past weekend while I had one helluva cold/flu thingy. I'm not trying to completely dissociate myself from what I've written here, but if it's completely incoherent, you know the reason. Any predictions made within this post were made before today's games. -- Not that I'm stupid enough to let one game influence my decision in such a long season.

So I dug through the history folder in my Mozilla Firefox browser, which I highly recommend, -- Adblock, Baseball-reference, and Bloglines toolkit, are just a few of the great extensions available that add great functionality to an already solid browser. -- and pulled up all of the prediction columns that I could find for the past few weeks. Go ahead and bookmark this page so you can have a reference to see who really did know what they were talking about and who was just full of hot air.

Here are the predictions I came across, in no particular order. If I missed one, either email me the link, and I'll add it to the list, or just dump it in the comments section.

The one thing I don't understand in all of these picks is the love for Cleveland. Picking Cleveland is the equivalent of getting a tribal tattoo around your bicep, or on your lower back if you're of the female persuasion. -- I like to call those the tramp stamp. -- I don't honestly believe there are that many people who feel that Cleveland is actually better than the Twins, who, as if I needed to remind you, are the three time defending division champs. Cleveland is just the flavor of the month. Do you remember how many people actually picked the Royals to win the Central last year? The Royals!

So here are my predictions for the season: AL Central

Minnesota Twins -- 89 victories -- They're first until further notice. I wouldn't predict the sun not to come up tomorrow, so why would I pick against the Twins? It's become that predictable.
Why they win the Central:
- Johan.Santana.
- They didn't really lose anything in Guzman and Koskie -- Cuddyer should do a decent job filling Koskie's shoes, and Jason Bartlett should easily fill in for the overrated Christian Guzman.
- The bullpen is actually better. Yes, Nathan may have trouble matching his output last year, but overall the pen is deeper and stronger.
How they can lose the Central:
- Aaron Gleeman does a pretty good job listing multiple reasons why. I don't really need to expand further.
Chicago White Sox -- 86 victories -- I don't get angry when I see the Sox picked anywhere from 1st to 3rd, but when I see us picked 4th, I wonder why. The sox have finished 3rd or better every year since 1990.
How they can win the Central
- One of Contreras/Garland/Hernandez pitching to his full potential for the entire season
- Sound defense -- Should be the best in the AL Central
- Mark Buehrle -- OK, I'll admit I added that one after today's game.
- The Bullpen is no longer a liability, but an asset.
Why they finish second
- Contreras/Garland/Hernandez not likely to combine for an above average ERA.
- Scott Podsednik & Tadahito Iguchi -- It could spell trouble relying on a leadoff hitter who had an OBP of .313 last season and a #2 hitter who has never had a Major league at bat. It may be a while, but at some point you'll begin to miss the defensive wizardry of Willie Harris too.
- Ozzie Guillen -- If he uses the small-ball approach as much as he has indicated he would, he'll bunt us right out of the opportunity to compete for a division title.
Cleveland Indians -- 83 victories -- They remind me of the 2001 White Sox, with a little more solid starting staff.
How they can win the Central
- Cliff Lee somehow puts two good half-seasons together
- All of Ron Belliard, Casey Blake, Travis Hafner, Ben Broussard, and Victor Martinez match or exceed their career years last year.
Why they finish third
- Defense is suspect. They're poor up the middle with Peralta and Belliard, and they probably downgraded at both corner OF position (Blake & Juan Gone)
- Some of those career years last season will prove to be just that. Career years, once in a career.
- Kevin Millwood? Are you kidding me? This guy is a $7M Jon Garland.
Detroit Tigers -- 77 victories -- Not quite yet.
How they can win the Central
- Bonderman, Maroth, Ledezma channel mid-90's Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz.
- O E O does what he never could in Chicago; carry a team.
Why they finish fourth
- Starting pitching is at least another year away from being above league average.
- Even with the subtraction of the empty average roid user Alex Sanchez and the addition of Maggs, I still don't see enough offense. -- At least not with this pitching staff.
Kansas City Royals -- 58 victories -- Somebody had to lose a lot in my prediction. Three teams are over the .500 mark, and the other is just below it.
How they can win the Central
- Multiple plane crashes?
Why they finish last
- Even Joe Posnaski doesn't think they'll win. He did write his annual "why the Royals will win the Central" column though.
- Terrance Long is a starting corner outfielder, that's almost makes Scott Podsednik look good.
- Jose Lima was their opening day starter.

Some general Sox Predictions/Observations

Aaron Rowand -- All-Star. Sounds weird doesn't it? It shouldn't in a few months.
Jon Garland -- He'll pitch right around 200 innings of league average ball and win 12 games. This is on the same level as predicting the Twins to win the division, or Eric Gagne to be dominant in 82.1IP.
Carl Everett -- Gets off to a hot start, so much so that we don't really miss Frank. -- I must say I'm not as confident in this as I was just a couple days ago when I started to write this. He's been unimpressive against the Brew Crew and the Tribe.
Tadahito Iguchi -- Will struggle early on. Will struggle for a while if Ozzie continues to cut his field in half by drilling him to go to the right side with everything. Japanese Gold Gloves don't mean shit.
Dustin Hermanson -- Will turn out to be a much more valuable player than I had first envisioned. He's impressed me so far.
Joe Borchard -- In a new organization by the end of June.
Joe Crede -- Becomes Public Enemy #1. Think Billy Koch. Every team needs a whipping boy. If Joe doesn't improve soon, he's going to be hearing it from both barrels; the media and the fans.

* * * * *
This is where I would usually write about the game, or tell you it was the first 1-0 shutout by the White Sox since May of 2003, or something cool like that, but it's really late/early in the morning. I should get to bed. I've got all night to think of superlatives for Buehrle's magnificent performance.

First Place, Baby!

2005-04-04T16:33:00.000-05:00

Buehrle was awsome. Pierzynski deserves some credit for calling a great game. Defense was solid. Konerko goes 2-3 to provide the bulk of the offense. Shingo works a 1-2-3 ninth.

I've been sick all weekend, so this was a great way to start making me feel better. I had a long post on predictions, along with some of my own... Even thought the season has already started, I'll get it up later tonight, after the Illini game.

1st Place, Baby!

Billy, Carmen, and Bryan

2005-04-01T00:47:00.000-06:00

***Former White Sox closer Billy Koch, was released a couple of weeks ago, from the Toronto Blue Jays after just 4 innings pitched. For some reason, the Jays offered him a $950,000 deal, even though most thought he could be had for just a minor league deal and an invite to camp. This is important because the major league deal is guaranteed, and thus Billy can sit at home and collect a nice check. That's apparently exactly what he plans to do.

"To be released after four outings? What's four outings in the spring? Nothing," Koch said. "They can pay my gas money for my car, they can pay to fill up my 240-gallon tank for my 30-foot Pursuit, they can gas up my jet boat and our three jet skis."

There is some debate as to whether the Jays have to pay Koch the entire contract or not because he was released so early in spring training.(see post #6) Either way, I never liked Billy -- mostly because Keith Foulke was easily my favorite Sox player at the time of the infamous trade -- and I can laugh at the Jays for even bothering to sign the guy now that he's been released.

***Carmen DeFalco paired with Hawk a couple of times in the past week to call the White Sox spring training games for Comcast Sports Net. I thought he did a pretty fine job. He showed good knowledge of both the Sox and their opponents (Oakland and Colorado) including the minor leaguers. He's a young guy, and should eventually get a chance in the booth one day, as long as he's given an equal shot and not passed over for lesser talents who bring "experience"(read: former/washed-up major league players and managers). Which brings me to my next topic...

***Apparently this was announced today on Mac, Jurko, and Harry, but I wasn't listening -- which is unusual -- I had to read it at a pretty cool blog that I just discovered (The Chicago Media Monitor). Bryan Dolgin is the new White Sox Pre/Post host on ESPN 1000. This comes as a surprise to me, as I figured DeFalco was first in line for the job. He's shared Pre & Post duties for the Bulls games, so it's not like it would have been a big jump. I just thought he was the obvious choice, being an unabashed White Sox fan.

As for Dolgin, he was the radio voice of the Joliet Jackhammers last season. I'll reserve judgment on the decision until I actually hear Dolgin a few times. Until then, you can check out his bio over at the Jackhammers site. He lists being a parking attendant at Comiskey when he was 16 as his first job, so maybe we do have a real Sox fan behind the mike. I'm gonna miss Dave Wills' voice though.

Anagram'd -- Con't

2005-03-31T23:19:00.000-06:00

I didn't do the bench, but there were a couple of good ones.

Timo Perez = Temporize -- Maybe he's only sticking around for a while.
Timo Perez = I'm pet zero -- He's Hawk's pet
Pablo Ozuna = Anal up Bozo -- No comment
Frank Thomas = Shaft on mark
Frank Thomas = Mash for tank
Ozzie Guillen = Lounge Lizzie -- seem's about right
Ross Gload = Solar Gods
Ross Gload = A-Rod's logs
Willie Harris = Whirl is a liar

Got any more? Drop 'em in the comments.

Anagram'd

2005-03-31T18:15:00.000-06:00

Idea stolen from this thread over at Baseball Think Factory.

LF - Stick's not doped
2B - I hit a tough acid
DH - lever art, etc.
1B - U'l park one, OK
RF - I end a Jeremy
CF - Draw an oar on
C - I zip any jerks
SS - I rub a June
3B - Jeer code

SP - He blur maker
SP - Graced friday
SP - An old hero, darn zen
SP - Jargon land
SP - No reject soars

CL - Ha, stink out gas
RP - Same toad arm
RP - I'm a nerd, shot nuns
RP - sonic uzi vial
RP - epic lift, loft
RP - Act stolen

Gammo Notes

2005-03-31T00:28:00.000-06:00

There's a bunch of little things that have gone on in White-Sox-Nation during the last 48 hours, so it's time to break out the best friend of sportswriters everywhere: The "notes" column.

Mark Buehrle pitched 5 pain free innings Tuesday, throwing 90 pitches, and yielding 3 runs (2 earned).
Cheat's take: I told you there would be nothing to worry about.
Wilson Valdez was put on waivers, and subsequently claimed by the New York Mets.
Cheat's take: No big loss. There was a time when I was somewhat comfortable with Valdez/Harris platoon at second. Pablo Ozuna and Tadahito Iguchi have made that scary possibilty just a distant memory. Thank God.
Ben Davis clears Waivers?
Cheat's take: Wha??? Wow, I didn't see that one coming. I've had what I thought was the sox roster set(see below) since KW's comments about Pablo Ozuna back at Sox fest. Davis' name was on it every time. Chris Widger, not Jamie Burke, should replace him.
Felix Diaz goes on the 15 day DL.
Cheat's take: Diaz was pulled from a game about a week ago with shoulder stiffnes, but this confuses me a little, because I assume they would have desinated him first.
A Robert Person sighting
Cheat's take: He never really got a shot last year when he blew out his Achilles in spring training. As last season proved, you can never have too many 6th starter candidates filling up the Charlotte rotation.
Hermanson suspension reduced to one game.
Cheat's take: 3 games wouldn't have been a big deal, but a suspension of only one game virtually assures that the Sox will only carry 11 pitchers.
So what does the roster look like then?
1. C - AJ Pierzynski
2. 1B - Paul Konerko
3. 2B - Tadahito Iguchi
4. SS - Juan Uribe
5. 3B - Joe Crede
6. LF - Scott Podsednik
7. CF - Aaron Rowand
8. RF - Jermaine Dye
9. DH - Carl Everett
10. SP - Mark Buehrle
11. SP - Freddy Garcia
12. SP - Orlando Hernandez
13. SP - Jon Garland
14. SP - Jose Contreras
15. CL - Shingo Takatsu
16. RP - Damaso Marte
17. RP - Dustin Hermanson
18. RP - Cliff Politte
19. RP - Luis Vizcaino
20. RP - Neal Cotts
21. BN - Willie Harris
22. BN - Pablo Ozuna
23. BN - Ross Gload
24. BN - Timo Perez
25. BN - Chris Widger
26. DL - Frank Thomas
27. Left out - Kevin Walker
Cheat's take: Wow, it's going to be a tough decision -- it wouldn't be for me [insert evil laugh] -- who gets dropped when Frank comes off of the DL. I'm guessing by that time it will be apparent who's in least favor with Ozzie and Kenny. I think there is an outside chance that Willie Harris ends up in Charlotte, with Kevin Walker on the team. If not, the sox should just contact the Cubs, if you're left handed and can throw a ball sixty-feet-six-inches, they've got a contract for you.

... and Defense?

2005-03-28T22:52:00.000-06:00

In the Sox last 6 spring training games, they have allowed 9, 11, 11, 7, 15, and 8 runs, respectively. In the last 12, their record is 1-9 when scoring less than 10 runs.

Kenny Williams supposedly put together a team that wins through pitching and defense, but currently I'm not seeing it. I know it's only spring training, but it's getting close to being time to worry.

* * * * *
Speaking of defense, David Pinto over at Baseball Musings has introduced a graphical representation of a fielder's range. There's some great info in there, some more obvious than others.

Paul Konerko -- Shows good ability on groundballs, terrible on bunts, and good on liners to his right.
Juan Uribe -- Good all over, though I'm not sure he has enough data from any one position to really draw any broad conclusions.
Joe Crede -- The data reaffirms what I've felt about Joe's defense for a while; it's overrated. He's not very good at all to his right, this could be simply a product of positioning.
Jermaine Dye -- Excellent range towards center.
Aaron Rowand -- Solid, average.

Those last two are the most interesting. Right-center field is where fly balls go to dye this year. Although both of these graphs could be a product of positioning. Dye probably shaded a little towards center on the year, with Kotsay shading towards left, as Byrnes was excellent down the left field line.

Taking a look at Podsednik's graphs, we see that overall he was below average on the easy stuff, but very good at hard hit balls to his right.

* * * * *
Baseball Tonight makes it debut as I type this. The season is just around the corner now. They've got new digs, but they're back to their same 'ole ways. Harold Reynolds thinks the Dodgers are 2004 D'backs. He's on crack.

We don't need no steenkin' preview

2005-03-28T00:41:00.000-06:00

Yeah that's right, I'm not writing one of those ubiquitous season preview columns. There will be future installments of Extreme Makeover, however. For the most part, these season preview things are a dime a dozen -- Neyer had a decent one a few weeks ago, but that was an Insider article, so I didn't link it. -- Studes, of the Hardball Times actually has one that's worth reading.

THT: Five Questions: Chicago White Sox

Head on over and read the whole thing, then come back here, and I'll chime in with a couple of thoughts. No, I'm serious... go read it, now. There'll be a quiz later.

* * * * *
Two things really stuck out for me in that recap:

When discussing the Sox OBP and subsequent RISP avg., where the Sox were either really good or really bad, depending on your perspective, Studes brings up this:
In fact, if you look at the number of times Sox batters actually reached base (OBP without the home runs), the Sox were virtually last in the league with a .305 figure. Tamp Bay was last at .303.
I had never thought of subtracting HR from the equation before. I don't know why, and I feel stupid for not thinking of it first, but this actually helps illustrate why the Sox offense shouldn't face the drop-off that lesser columnists are predicting. I don't think they'll hit the 242 HR that they reached last year, but I'd eat my hat if they don't break 200 this season, and they should make up for the modest loss of HRs by getting more guys into scoring position the conventional way(hitting & walking) and the hard way(stealing & the dreaded productive out).
In question number four, when talking about the bullpen studes introduces this:
```
P            All     Sox
0-0.1       4.22    4.43
0.1-0.2     3.98    5.05
0.2-0.3     3.75    4.70
0.3-0.4     3.57    7.70
```
...Most teams bring in their best pitchers when the game is on the line, which is why their FIP decreases as their P increases (does that sound funny, or is it just me?). The Sox, on the other hand, had a 7.70 FIP when the game was in its more critical junctures. That's just not good, and needs to improve in 2005.
Studes doesn't fully explain what the numbers on the left represent, but I'm reasonably sure that they represent the difficulty of the situation the reliever inherited. The most difficult situation would be bases loaded, nobody out; and last year we all know what that meant... Thriller. Studes attributes the high FIP for the Sox in the most critical situations to Marte's down year, and he's probably partially right, but I know of at least 2 occasions where first pitch "fastballs" got a one way flight to the outfield seats for a grand slam last season care of Thriller. I can think of another that went for a bases clearing double. Plus we had a half season of Billy Koch. The bullpen will be even more improved than Studes numbers indicate simply with the departure of these two.

Extreme Makeover: Southside Edition

2005-03-24T14:33:00.000-06:00

I could have done a standard season preview. In fact, I started one, but I just couldn't bring myself to finish it. It wouldn't be original, or anything new to you. So in the interest of providing a preview that is both new and original, I present to you...

Fade in.

Hello Chicago! Ty Pennington here. I heard that you guys needed some help.

***Background info montage***

We've got a really special challenge for us this week. The Chicago White Sox are a major league baseball team that has been overshadowed in it's own town, hasn't won a division title in 4 years, hasn't won a post-season series in over 87 years, and is infamous for having thrown the 1919 World Series.

We're here to change all of that. Let's go surprise the team.

***Into megaphone*** Hey, WHITE SOX!!! Com'on out here!!

[KW]: Wha..What are you doing here?

[Ty]: Some of your fans wrote in to us. They told us about your long history of second place finishes; the World Series drought, the players strike that took away "your year." We've heard it all. But we're here to change all that.

[KW]: I've been working on it. I've just been flying under the radar.

[TY]: I heard about you ejoying "flying under the radar" so I talked to my friends in the Navy and got you special permission to spend the off-season with the Blue Angels.

[JR]: Is this gonna cost us any money?

[Ty]: No, We've got it all taken care of.

[KW]: But I've got it under control.

[JR]: (whispers to KW) Be quiet. I've seen this show before. You get all kinds of free stuff, and we can sell it off later for a profit.

[KW]: OK, but you guys gotta call me and keep me updated... And see if Carl Everett is available.

[JR]: He's already on the team, Kenny.

[Ty]: OK guys, we've got a limo waiting to take you off to meet the Blue Angels.

***Commercial Break***

Fireworks

2005-03-23T19:55:00.000-06:00

There were plenty of fireworks earlier today when the Sox met the Brewers. -- It sort of reminded me of the mid-to-late nineties when they were still in the AL and the two teams seemed to have at least one scuffle per season. -- The Sox trounced the Brewers by a score of 17-9, but the offense wasn't the only excitement on the day.

In the second inning, Jon Garland was hit by a come-backer on the right bicep. He was able to record the out, and finish off the inning, but didn't come out for his at-bat in the third. Garland is supposedly OK -- Although I can't find a quote to confirm this right now -- and was only removed from the game for precautionary measures.

* * * * *
Joe Crede had himself a heck of a day at the plate, going 4-4 with a HR. Joe entered the day with a Spring Training batting average of .179, but those 4 hits raised his average to a robust .256. I know Spring Training stats don't mean much, but his numbers were pretty damn depressing.

* * * * *
Pablo Ozuna has done everything the staff has asked of him, and more. He's made it almost impossible for them to leave him off of the roster. He came into the day batting .519 and went 2-2, raising his average to .541 in 37ABs, all while playing left field for the first time(that I have seen anyways). On the spring he's played at short, 3rd, and now LF. (He may have played some 2B, but it's hard to keep track of in ST.)

* * * * *
Now for the real Fireworks, in the third inning, Carlos Lee hit bomb off of Josh Fields(the pitcher, not the first round pick 3B), and I'm going to guess that some of his former mates didn't take to kindly to him admiring his shot, or getting around the bases to slowly, or.. or.. or something.

The next time Carlos faced one of his former team mates, he was drilled with a fastball by left hander Damaso Marte. Hitting a batter is nothing new for Marte this spring. He's been working on throwing the ball inside to right-handers, and had hit 2 in just 6IP before he even faced Lee. Marte appeared to have pretty good control though, and he doesn't usually miss that far inside with his fastball.

Carlos stared down Marte for a second, then tried to charge the mound, but not before catcher Chris Widger and the home plate umpire could get between him and Damaso. Both benches cleared, but it was just the usual baseball fight; lots of talking, no action.

Carlos was not a happy camper after the game, taking umbrage of the Sox actions from as early as the second play of the game, saying

"I knew they were going to send him," Lee said.

Why?

"Because they wanted to mess around with me."

when the Scott Podsednik led off with a triple and then tried to score on a shallow fly out to Lee with nobody out.

There's more at the link above, but mostly it's just machismo from both Carlos and Marte.

* * * * *
Pro Baseball Central will be hosting a 1 hour talk show with devoted to Chicago baseball, with guests Gene Wojciechowski(ESPN the Magazine) and Scott Merkin(MLB.com)this Thursday night at 9PM central time. --- Click Here to listen Live -- They will be taking your calls at 1-877-913-9739(toll free). Be sure to get some calls in so we don't have to listen to questions about the depleted Cubs bullpen.

Buehrle OUT???

2005-03-21T17:10:00.000-06:00

I'm sure you've already heard by now, but Mark Buehrle appears to be out for 4-6 weeks with a hairline fracture in his foot. The injury occured yesterday during the routine task of shagging fly balls. Reportedly Buehrle has a hairline fracture of the fourth metatarsal in his foot, but MRI results proved to be inconclusive. A CT scan is scheduled, and a more definite time table should known tomorrow.

My own thinking is that this shouldn't be too big of a deal, and Buehrle may miss 3-4 starts. I wouldn't be surprised to see him pitching in the first week of the season. Again, we'll know more tomorrow, and there's no reason to get worked up right now.

Update: AP reports that Buehrle appears to be OK. The fracture is now being referred to as a "stress reaction" to a previous injury.

Bracket Busted!

2005-03-19T23:18:00.000-06:00

Oh what a painful day for my brackets. Even though I've switched some of them up, there's not one single bracket I've entered that has more than 2 Final Four teams still in it. Surprisingly, I'm still near the top over at the Blogger's Bracket. -- Top 10% isn't bad, I wish I finished that high in school.
Last year I was complaining about the lack of buzzer beaters in the tournament. -- There haven't been any yet this year, but I'm not complainging. -- The performances down the stretch by West Virginia's Gansey and Wake Forest's Downey were incredible.
Good thing they've got a week to market that huge West Virginia vs. Texas Tech match up. They're gonna need it.
The Sox have won six of their last seven spring trainging games. I know it doesn't mean much, but they appear to be buying into Ozzie's small ball philosophy. While I'm not a big fan of bunting and giving away outs in the best HR park in the AL, they've begun to really pick the right spots and exacute very well.
I love the squeeze play. I was calling for it numerous times last season, when Ozzie was supposed to bring his small ball approach to Comiskey, but we didn't see it once in 162 games. So far in spring training, I've seen it at least twice. -- I heard Hawk say that they had run it, sucessfully, three times in under 20 games.

Bracket Busted?

2005-03-18T23:59:00.000-06:00

Not quite. I've lost a couple of Sweet 16 teams -- Pitt and Kansas -- but called a few upsets -- UW-M, UAB, Vermont(I convinced myself to take 'em) -- I'm participating in the Blogger's Bracket over at YocoHoops.com. After round one, I'm sitting very respectably in a tie for 20th place out of almost 350 entries.

There's a few familiar faces playing over there. I'm tied with one Twins Blogger(Will Young), and well ahead of another(Aaron Gleeman). -- Hey at least we can beat the Twins in something. Actually, I'm getting ahead of myself. The Sox were leading or tied for most of the first half last season. -- Also Soxtalk's very own, Heads, is in the middle of the pack.

Some things I think I think

If you haven't read The Sports Guys recap of the first two days of the NCAA tournament, you're missing out. -- Thursday (Part 1) (Part 2) -- Friday (Part 1) (Part 2)
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, UAB, and Pacific all could easily pull off upsets tomorrow.
My friend and I bet each game vs. the spread in the first round. Just $5 a game. He bet Thursday, I bet Friday. (No bookies or anything. I paid him if he won, he paid if I won.) I was 7-1 at the break today. Finished 12-4, for a healthy profit. Jim pushed yesterday.
Parity -- Where did this come from? I'm used to seeing the 1 & 2 seeds romp over the 15 & 16s -- Carolina was the only one to really take care of business.
Duke: 57, Carolina's first half: 59
I complained about Iowa having just 7 assists in 40 minutes. Well they were bested (or should it be worsted) a couple of times on Friday, including a mind-boggling low 3 assists by St. Mary's.
Jared Homan was a beast today. The Cyclones will need the same type of performance, if not better, to challenge Carolina on Sunday.
The Sox beat the Cubs again. Woo-hoo, 2-0 when they don't count!! -- Garland and El Duque were forgettable against a team comprised mostly of AAAA players. Rowand and Everett continue to rake the ball. (Look for Jurassic to get off to a quick start.) Borchard hit his 4th HR of the spring -- Maybe there's some trade value left in that well after all.
This is an absolutely brilliant recap of the hearings yesterday at Congress.
Cadbury creme eggs are out of this world. (Does anyone know how to get the gooey center filling out from in between the keys of a keyboard?)

Quick Hitters

2005-03-18T02:06:00.000-06:00

Just a couple of quick hitters before I head off to bed to rest up for another long day of TV viewing.

*** Blez over at Athletics Nation has a review of Michael Urban's new book Aces: The Last Season on the Mound with the Oakland A's Big Three: Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. (Brevity is apparently not one of Urban's strong suits). I know it doesn't really relate to the Sox in any way -- I haven't written about them much lately anyways -- but, I thought since pretty much everyone who stops by here has read Moneyball, they might wanna at least take a look at Blez's review.

*** Tom Meagher has a piece up at The Hardball Times where he explores pretty much anything you'd want to know about batted balls.

March Madness

2005-03-17T23:28:00.000-06:00

There was no Sox game today. Frank Thomas was right in the middle of the circus sideshow in Washington D.C. But honestly, did anyone actually think something would come out of those hearings?

The main story of the day was me requesting off the day from work, and sitting in my lounge chair for 12 hours watching college basketball.

I should be doing pretty well in most of my pools. Not necessarily winning, but close to the top, and without having lost anyone who I have going very deep.

Highlights on the day

Wisconsin-Milwaukee tearing into last years surprise Elite-8 qualifier Alabama.
UAB destroying LSU

Lowlights of the day

Iowa not bothering to show up in Indianapolis. 7 assists in 40 minutes for the team. That's pitiful.
Creighton pissing down their leg in the final minute against West Virginia.

Overall, day one this year was better than day one last year. The first few rounds last year were very disappointing.

Games to watch tomorrow

Minnesota vs. Iowa State. -- Both teams have one dominant player. For Minnesota is Vincent Grier, for Iowa State it's Curtis Stintson. Stintson is a more complete player than Grier.
Wisconsin vs. Northern Iowa -- Wisconsin doesn't blow anyone out. UNI is gonna be looking to prove they belong.
Southern Illinois vs. St. Mary's -- Battle of Mid-Majors. These two should be knocking off one of the big boys. I'll still enjoy watching them beat up on each other.

I think the Big Ten could be in store for a long day tomorrow.

Sometimes you get what you ask for

2005-03-17T14:27:00.000-06:00

Due to a high ranking on Yahoo! when searching for for all kinds of NCAA tournament related queries like "Albequerque Region Cheat Sheet," "NCAA Bracket Cheat," and "Team A vs. Team B prediction" traffic for this site more than quadrupled. Well, I hope all of you read the disclaimer I included in my first post.

I'm just laughing because somebody probably has Ohio beating Florida in their office pool because I got mad at Digger Phelps blatent homerism.

Bracket'd -- Midwest

2005-03-16T21:14:00.000-06:00

Final of a the series. I did this region last on purpose. I didn't want to get flooded with E-mails about my picks. You'll see.

(1) Illinois vs. (16) Faireliegh Dickinson -- Thursday, 8:40 PM - Indianapolis, IN
Ummm.. Illinois.
Prediction: Illinois
(8) Texas vs. (9) Nevada -- Thursday, 6:10 PM - Indianapolis, IN
Texas is a lot like Iowa in that they lost their top player mid-season. The difference is they've been consistently mediocre since his departure. Mediocre is not good enough to take out Nick Fazekas and Nevada.
Prediction: Nevada
(5) Alabama vs. (12) Wisconsin-Milwaukee -- Thursday, 11:25 AM - Cleveland, OH
I have yet to pick a 12 over 5 upset. I think this is the most likely upset, but there is a very good chance that the 12s strike out this year. UW-M plays a trapping style defense and likes to cause a lot of turnovers, so anything is possible. Alabama is very athletic though.
Prediction: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
(4) Boston College vs. (13) Pennsylvania -- Thursday, 1:45 - Cleveland, OH
Penn tore through the Ivy league this season, and BC is normally the type of team (one who struggles late falling from a high ranking) that I like to pick to get bumped early from the tourney. I just don't see it in this game though.
Prediction: Boston College
(6) LSU vs. (11) UAB -- Thursday, 8:40 PM - Boise, ID
UAB likes to run, but LSU should be comfortable with that. That's what they said last year in the UAB/Kentucky game, but UAB gave Kentucky everything they could handle. The floor at Boise is known for it's upsets. I think this has something to do with nobody wanting to make a trip to Boise. LSU and UAB figure to play to a crowd of people who've never been to Baton Rouge or Birmingham. Advantage: UAB
Prediction: UAB
(3) Arizona vs. (14) Utah State -- Thursday, 6:20 PM
Utah State plays good defense. Salim Stoudamire is the best shooter in the country. I don't know if there's a defense that can stop him.
Prediction: Arizona
(7) Southern Illinois vs. (10) St. Mary's -- Friday, 1:50 - Oklahoma City, OK
I really hate this pairing. These were two of my mid-major upset picks. They are supposed to be playing a power conference team. There's no reason that one of these teams couldn't have been stashed in another 7v10 game. As it is, I've seen more of SIU, and I know a couple players on the team, so...
Prediction: Southern Illinois
(2) Oklahoma State vs. (15) SE Louisiana -- Friday, 11:30 - Oklahoma City, OK
Um... OSU
Prediction: Oklahoma State

Second Round

(1) Illinois vs. (9) Nevada -- Saturday - Indianapolis, IN
Nevada is a good team, but Illinois has beaten good teams all year long. At least Nevada will be among good company
Prediction: Illinois
(4) Boston College vs. (12) Wisconsin-Milwaukee -- Saturday - Cleveland, OH
Boston College has struggled since their first loss of the season at the hands of a Notre Dame team that folded like a cheap tent down the stretch. That Notre Dame loss was only a harbinger of things to come. (I also know a player on UW-M, so I may just be overrating them)
Prediction: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
(3) Arizona vs. (11) UAB -- Saturday - Boise, ID
Zona has dealt with teams that can run before (see Washington). Did I mention that they had the best shooter in the country?
Prediction: Arizona
(2) Oklahoma State vs. (7) Southern Illinois -- Sunday - Oklahoma City, OK
Southern is the mid-major version of OSU, but this game is going to be played in OK City.
Prediction: Oklahoma State

Sweet Sixteen

(1) Illinois vs. (12) Wisconsin-Milwaukee -- Chicago, IL
Looks like the Illini get an easy march into the Elite 8. Even if UWM doesn't make the run I've predicted, I don't think 'Bama or BC pose much threat to Illinois. Even if they did, this is practically a home game for the Illini
Prediction: Illinois
(3) Arizona vs. (2) Oklahoma State -- Chicago, IL
I live within 10 mile from the Rosemont Horizon. (It will always be the Horizon to me.) This game, along with the to follow later in the weekend would almost be worth what the scalpers are charging. Oklahoma State can handle Channing Frye on the inside even though they don't have the size to do so. The Graham brothers play bigger than they appear. OSU is the best three-point shooting team in the country.
Prediction: Oklahoma State

Regional Final

(1) Illinois vs. (2) Oklahoma State -- Chicago, IL
Two weeks ago before anyone had beaten Illinois, my father asked me if anyone could beat them. Without hesitation, I replied simply, "Okie State would kill 'em on a neutral court." Well the game isn't going to be held on a neutral court, but I don't think it's going to be enough to overcome OSU.

I read in Sporting News last week that the first six players for OSU average 22.1 in age. The Chicago Bulls first six average 22.2! This is one experienced team.

Just as Thad Matta was the first to defeat St. Joe's last season, he did the same to Illinois. Eddie Sutton and Okie State were the team that knocked St. Joe's out of the tournament in the Regional finals. History repeats itself.
Prediction: Oklahoma State

Frank Testifies

2005-03-16T19:55:00.000-06:00

I've avoided writing about the steroid controversy for as long as I could. As you should already know by know Frank was called to testify before Congress at the hearings tomorrow. It appeared that Frank would have to fly to DC give his testimony, but today he was given the OK to testify via video conference.

Frank has apparently already taped his opening remarks, and the transcript is available on the Trib's site. It's mostly pleasantries, and then the quote you wanted to see.

I have been a major league ballplayer for 15 years. Throughout my career, I have not used steroids. Ever.

I'd be really surprised to see any of the players, outside of Canseco, admitting to anything tomorrow.

I won't be watching. I'm going to be shocked and awed by the NCAA tourney all day. Chicago region predictions to follow later tonight.

Taking Notice

2005-03-15T22:10:00.000-06:00

The White Sox got some national TV exposure on Tuesday. They played an ESPN2 game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Earth, Milky Way Galaxy, presently residing in Central Arizona, (LAAEMWGPRCA for short) sending top prospect Brandon McCarthy to the mound.

Even though the game was broadcast on CSN, I decided to take in the ESPN2 broadcast because I wanted to see what they had to say about both the Sox and Brandon McCarthy. Plus Steve Stone was making his ESPN debut. (He's hinted that he left his schedule open on Wednesdays, and it's a pretty simple conclusion that it because he's doing the color commentary for the ESPN Wednesday package.)

The beginning, middle, and end of the story from today's game was the performance of Brandon McCarthy. He improved to 3-0 on the spring, going five innings, giving up 2 unearned runs. On the Spring his ERA is nonexistent in 10.1 innings pitched.

Spring         IP     H  R ER HR BB  K
McCarthy     10.1     7  2  0  0  1  5

The Scouting report on McCarthy (for those who haven't been able to see him): In today's game, I thought he had better stuff than he did in his previous outing. He features three "plus" pitches, the fastball, change, and curve. Seems simple, doesn't it?

His fastball is not overpowering by any means. Today it topped out at 92, and I think I only saw that once on a throw well out of the zone. He can locate the fastball wherever he wants. He makes up for the lack of speed with late movement, in to the right handers, and down to the lefties. As you can see from clicking on the picture, he's a lanky fellow at 6'7" and 190lbs., so there might be some added velocity when he completely fills out.

His change up is supposedly his best pitch, his out pitch if you will. As with the fastball he is able to locate in anywhere in the zone. He's not afraid to throw it in any count, evidenced today by inducing a strikeout on a 3-2 count. I didn't really take notice as to what the change was hitting on the gun, but it was clear that he had quite a few hitters fooled with his long body and big motion.

His curveball was supposed to be his weakest pitch, but it looked very strong to me. If his curve is working like it was today, he is major league ready right now. It was a nice tight 11-6 curve. Just like the change he showed a willingness to throw it in any count. He had Chone Figgins struck out on a back door curve to finish the 5th, but appeared to catch umpire Jim Wolf by surprise also being called a ball. Figgins later walked, McCarthy's first of the spring.

There are some pitchers who you hear about having electric stuff and they don't amount to anything. Then there are those like Mark Buehrle, who are never descried as having "good stuff," and yet all they do is get people out and string together zeros on the scoreboard. It's about knowing how to pitch, how to challenge the hitters. It's clear that McCarthy is in the latter category.

I'm not the only one with such high praise for McCarthy, Ozzie Guillen is very impressed also.

"He's the best pitcher in camp right now. There's no doubt about it," said White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, who seems more amazed by McCarthy with each trip to the mound. "I wish I had this kid last year. I would have had one less headache.

"It's fun to watch this kid pitch. It's amazing that he's a baby and he does what he does. You won't see too many kids pitch at the big league level the way he does now."

All the praise aside, I can't see the Sox putting McCarthy on the 25-man roster. His place, when he eventually makes the Sox, is in the rotation, and that's blocked with old Cubans and established major leaguers. He's not on the 40-man roster, and there's really no reason to get his service clock started already, unless he throws a perfect game in spring and you can shift Contreras or El Duque to the pen. It's extremely likely that at least one member of the White Sox rotation is going to hit the DL this season. (I'm looking in your direction El Duque.) It sure is nice to have someone you have confidence in waiting in the wings.

Bracket'd -- West Region

2005-03-15T20:24:00.000-06:00

Digger Phelps just got his. Notre Dame just lost in the NIT at home to basketball powerhouse Holy Cross. I'm sure he'll be on later tonight blaming the loss on the let down from not getting into the real tourney. Onto the Albuquerque Region. (Holy heck is that hard to spell.)

West
First Round

(1)Washington vs. (16) Montana -- Thursday, 2:10 PM - Boise, ID
This was actually supposed to be a regular season match up, but Montana backed out at the eleventh hour. This gives Washington the chance to take 'em out on a much larger stage
Prediction: Washington
(8) Pacific vs. (9) Pittsburgh -- Thursday, 11:40 AM - Boise, ID
Pittsburgh is one of my favorite teams to watch play. I like defense. They are just tough. I really hate this pairing because I had Pacific as one of my sleeper Sweet Sixteen picks. Either team in this game has the ability to knock off Washington, but I'm gonna go with the metal toughness of Pitt in this one
Prediction: Pittsburgh
(5) Georgia Tech vs. (12) George Washington -- Friday, 8:40 PM - Nashville, TN
The Wramblin'' Wreck was a top ten team to start the year after making the Finals last season. They struggled without their floor leader BJ Elder, but he's back, and so is GT.
Prediction: Georgia Tech
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Louisiana Lafayette -- Friday, 6:10 PM - Nashville, TN
Louisville runs and shoots the three pointer. The one thing that gets overlooked it their D. They don't play much of it, but they do have a number of "long" guys. Players who have large wingspans, breaking up your shots and passes.
Prediction: Louisville
(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) UCLA -- Thursday, 8:55 PM - Tucson, AZ
Tech's low point of the season was a 30 point loss to Iowa in Chicago. They've played much better since then, but still occasionally have a lapse. UCLA is about a year away from making an NCAA run.
Prediction: Texas Tech
(3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Winthrop -- Thursday, 6:25 PM - Tucson, AZ
Gonzaga has a lot of talented players; Turiaf, Morrison, Ravio, et al. Morrison gives anyone they face headaches.
Prediction: Gonzaga
(7) West Virginia vs. (10) Creighton -- Thursday 8:40 PM - Cleveland, OH
West Virginia may be one of the hottest teams in the country. Creighton is from the MVC, all they do it win in the tourney. They boast the second best three point attack in the tourney.
Prediction: Creighton
(2) Wake Forest vs. (15) Chattanooga -- Thursday, 6:10 PM - Cleveland, OH
Wake is one hella good team. If Chris Paul isn't healthy though they could be challenged. They would still win, but it would be close.
Prediction: Wake Forest

Second Round

(1) Washington vs. (9) Pittsburgh -- Saturday, 2:20 PM - Boise, ID
Washington wants to run and play a finesse game. Pittsburgh wants to slow it down and make it a football game. This is the one team that Washington didn't want to see this early in the bracket.
Prediction: Pittsburgh
(5) Georgia Tech vs. (4) Louisville -- Sunday, 1:15 PM - Nashville, TN
These two seem to be everyone's favorite dark horses to take the whole thing. I really like the Louisville squad. They've done it all year.
Prediction: Louisville
(6) Texas Tech vs. (3) Gonzaga -- Saturday, 12:10 PM - Tucson, AZ
Bobby Knight hasn't made the Sweet Sixteen since 1994. He gets the most out of his team in the regular season, but they seem to falter come March. The Zags have never been afraid of a uniform or a coach on the opposing sideline.
Prediction: Gonzaga
(2) Wake Forest vs. (10) Creighton -- Saturday, 7:00 Pm - Cleveland, OH
Wake is just too much for the Jays
Prediction: Wake Forest

Sweet Sixteen

(9) Pittsburgh vs. (4) Louisville -- Albuquerque, NM
Pittsburgh is exactly the type of team that could give Louisville trouble, but I feel like they've just got too much firepower.
Prediction: Louisville
(3) Gonzaga vs. (2) Wake Forest -- Albuquerque, NM
Both of these team have losses at Illinois. Wake was blown out when they were ranked #1 in the country. Gonzaga gave Illinois more of a fight, even though it wasn't much.
Prediction: Gonzaga

Regional Final

(4) Louisville vs. (3) Gonzaga -- Albuquerque, NM
Another high scoring affair. Pittsburgh is the lone team in this bracket that really plays defense. They have a chance to make a run all the way to the Final Four. But in this game, I feel that Gonzaga's got more weapons than Louisville.
Prediction: Gonzaga

Bracket'd -- South Region

2005-03-14T18:00:00.000-06:00

First Round

(1) Duke vs. (16) Delaware St. -- Friday - Charlotte, NC
I know Delaware is the Blue Hens, but I have no clue what the mascot for Delaware is. That's about the extent of analysis that's required to pick Duke in the 1 vs. 16 match up.
Prediction: Duke
(8) Stanford vs. (9) Mississippi St. -- Friday - Charlotte, NC
The Bulldogs were a pre-season national title contender who got absolutely embarrassed by Alabama early in SEC play. They've played a much tougher schedule than the Cardinal, and only have one "bad loss." Stanford took a while to find their identity after their magical season last year. They'll still be looking on Friday.
Prediction: Mississippi St.
(5) Michigan St. vs. (12) Old Dominion -- Friday - Worcester, MA
The Spartans looked terrible in their loss to Iowa in the Big Ten tourney, but that's good news. They still almost won, despite being 15 of 30 at the free throw line against an opponent who's better than ODU. ODU's best victory came at the hands of last year's #1 seed, St. Joe's. They haven't faced anyone the caliber of MSU.
Prediction: Michigan St.
(4) Syracuse vs. (13) Vermont -- Friday - Worcester, MA
The Orange are on a lot of experts lists as a sleeper team to make the Final Four. The tandem of McNamara and Hakim Warrick is a good one, but when a team relies on so much of their offense to got through just two players they are asking for trouble. The Mounties have one helluva player on their side in Taylor Coppenrath. Mid-Majors with a dominant player usually do fairly well in the tourney. If Vermont can figure out the 2-3 zone of Cuse, they'll take 'em out.
Prediction: Syracuse, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them go down.
(6) Utah vs. (11) UTEP -- Thursday - Tucson, AZ
Andrew Bogut is being touted as the probable #1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. Utah, understandably, likes to work their offense through him. UTEP likes to keep an up tempo pace, and force you to play their game. This should be a good match up of contrasting styles. If Bogut gets in early foul trouble UTEP could romp.
Prediction: Utah
(3) Oklahoma vs. (14) Niagara -- Thursday - Tucson, AZ
Bah, Blogger just ate the whole rest of this write-up. I don't wanna re-write everything. Oklahoma>Niagara, How's that for concise analysis.
Prediction: Oklahoma
(7)Cincinnati vs. (10) Iowa -- Thursday - Indianapolis, IN
I believe, I can't find anything to back me up on this, that in my lifetime, Iowa has only lost one opening round NCAA game. Cincinnati has a history of underachieving come March.
Prediction: Iowa
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) E. Kentucky -- Thursday - Indianapolis, IN
The tourney committee had to have a sly little smile on their face when they made this pairing. This pod should have a great turnout with Illinois, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Iowa and E. Kentucky all well within driving distance
Prediction: Kentucky

Second Round

(1) Duke vs. (9) Mississippi St. -- Sunday - Charlotte, NC
This is why I like the pod system. Overall there are more things I like about it than hate about it, but that's a whole separate issue. Duke gets practically a home game with one catch. Carolina is playing the game immediately before or after. Usually the tournament crowds root for the underdog, but usually they don't have the voice of 1/4 of the stadium filled with fans of your worst rival. It's gonna be a fun environment
Prediction: Duke
(5) Michigan St vs. (4) Syracuse -- Sunday - Worcester, MA
A few keys to this game
1. Which Paul Davis will show up?
2. Can MSU shoot 'Cuse out of the 2-3 zone?
3. Can they contain Hakim Warrick?
4. Can MSU actually win versus a good team
Prediction: Michigan St.
(3) Oklahoma vs. (6) Utah -- Saturday - Tucson, AZ
I'll give a little more analysis on this one. Bogut will likely match up with Bookout in one of the most intriguing battles of the second round. Oklahoma has benefited from playing tough competition all year long. I think they're one year off from competing for the title.
Prediction: Oklahoma
(2) Kentucky vs. (10) Iowa -- Saturday - Indianapolis, IN
Iowa has shown that they can play with anyone in the nation. I'd like to pick them over Kentucky here, but I don't have enough confidence that they'll actually make it out of the first round.
Prediction: Kentucky

Sweet Sixteen

(1) Duke vs. (5) Michigan State -- Austin, TX
This is a rematch of a game played back in November, during which MSU was playing their worst stretch of basketball. MSU hasn't beaten anyone all year. I've got 'em beating 'cuse, I don't see them making it two in a row.
Prediction: Duke
(2) Kentucky vs. (3) Oklahoma -- Austin, TX
I'd love to put Kentucky through here, and set up a rematch of the fabulous 1992 regional final at the Meadowlands, but I just can't. Oklahoma is a little more experienced than Kentucky, and it should show in this game.
Prediction: Oklahoma

Regional Final

(1) Duke vs. (3) Oklahoma -- Austin, TX
I hate Dook. I'm not putting them in the Final Four. It's that simple.
Prediction: Oklahoma

Bracket'd

2005-03-13T21:49:00.000-06:00

Today is one of my favorite days of the year. After an extended weekend overflowing with bubbles bursting and buzzer beaters in the world of basketball, 65 blessed teams balance at the brink of bracket bedlam.

Suddenly, everyone is a bracket expert, myself included. Anyway I thought I'd post my picks, and give a little thought behind each match up. So I'm going to go through a region a day until Thursday, starting with....

Syracuse (It's still the East regional to me though)

First Round

(1) North Carolina vs. Play-in Winner - Friday - Charlotte, NC
I don't think I need to give much analysis here. Carolina is so talented that I actually wonder how they lost once, let alone four times.
Prediction: NC
(8) Minnesota vs. (9) Iowa State - Friday - Charlotte, NC
Minnesota played a cupcake non-conference schedule. Their marquee wins are against NIT-bound Indiana and Michigan, and an Iowa team without Pierre Pierce. Iowa State likewise played a cupcake non-conference schedule, but boast impressive road victories at Oklahoma and Kansas. Minnesota has beaten only one Tournament team, they won't make it two.
Prediction: Iowa State
(5) Villanova vs. (12) New Mexico - Friday - Nashville, TN
I was very impressed with Villanova the few times I was able to catch them on ESPN. New Mexico needed to win their conference tourney to make the field. This won't be the annual 12 over 5 upset.
Prediction: Villanova
(4) Florida vs. (13) Ohio - Friday - Nashville, TN
Florida is an extremely talented team that underachieved all year, but got hot near the end to secure a nice seen in the tourney. This Florida team reminds me a lot of the 2000 Florida squad that made the Finals only to lose to Michigan State. I had them picked to lose in the opening round to Butler, but Mike Miller made that runner at the buzzer, and the rest is history. The same could happen here. A talented Florida team will get tested by a lesser opponent for 39+ minutes only to pull it out at the last second
Prediction: Florida (barely) -- Edit: Ohio -- Fuck you, Digger.(keep reading)
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) Northern Iowa - Friday - Oklahoma City, OK
Northern Iowa is the one team that you hear the media complaining about getting a bid over teams like Notre Dame. Those teams usually get a lot of bulletin board material from the papers between now and their first round game. Wisconsin plays a slow, defense oriented style of basketball, which keeps games close, no matter the opponent. Look for Northern Iowa to prove they belong
Predictions: Northern Iowa
(3) Kansas vs. (14) Bucknell - Friday - Oklahoma City, OK
Kansas exploited the RPI this year with early wins over mid-majors who racked up victories they somehow fooled the computers that they played the toughest schedule and thus were the top team in the nation. Going 3-5 down the stretch proved otherwise. I don't even know the mascot for Bucknell (It's the bison. I just looked it up).
Prediction: Kansas
(7) Charlotte vs. (10) NC St. - Friday - Worcester, MA
I don't know what it is, but I have never like Bobby Lutes, or the Charlotte 49'ers. Maybe it's because I never understood why their nickname was the 49ers in the first place. Whatever it is, I'm taking NC ST in this one. They've played very well even in their losses since around Valentine's Day.
Prediction: NC St.
(2) Conneticut vs. (15) Central Florida - Friday - Worcester, MA
I think Conneticut is one of the most dangerous teams in the country. They've really started to come together after being a little disappointing early. They're practically playing in their backyard in MA.
Prediction: Conneticut

Second Round

(1) North Carolina vs. (9) Iowa State -- Sunday - Carlotte, NC
Iowa State has proven that they can play with anyone, even in a hostile environment. They showed an excellent gameplan in their victory over Kansas, slowing the game down, and making Kansas play their game. They will need to force their style of game if they have any hope in this one. Felton and May will prove to be much more up to the challenge than Simien and Miles were, though State's match-up zone could give them problems.
Prediction: North Carolina
(5) Villanova vs. ~~(4) Florida~~ (13) Ohio -- Sunday - Nashville, TN
I didn't have the heart to pick the upset over Florida in the first round, but I do here, even though it's just a mild one. Digger Phelps just picked Florida to go to the Final Four. That settles it. I'm going back and changing the opening round game. Digger is such a Notre Dame homer that I'm changing it just to spite him. Villanova takes out an overmatched Ohio team easily.
Prediction: Villanova
(3) Kansas vs. Northern Iowa -- Sunday - Oklahoma City, OK
I'd love to pick UNI again here, but I just don't feel confident doing so. Kansas should win this game easily.
Prediction: Kansas
(2) Connecticut vs. (10) NC St. -- Sunday - Worcester, MA
Connecticut has a chance to go deep into this tournament. NC St. has been playing everyone very close. I'm going with UConn here, but it's gonna be a close one.
Prediction: UConn

Sweet Sixteen

(1) North Carolina vs. (5) Villanova -- Syracuse, NY
Even though I stated that Villanova has impressed me the few times that I've watched them, I still can't name a single player on their team. I may not follow college basketball as much as I used to, but I still should know players names from anyone who I have in the sweet 16. There's no way I can put them through any farther without being more familiar with them. I'm going to claim ignorance at take North Carolina here.
Prediction: North Carolina
(2) Connecticut vs. (3) Kansas -- Syracuse, NY
Bill Self has never impressed me as a coach. He's an excellent recruiter, but I've watched him get beat numerous times in big games where he had the most talented team. Kansas has more talent than UConn, but UConn gets the benefit of both a coach and players who have been there before, not to mention what will probably be a favorable crowd.
Prediction: Connecticut

Regional Final

(1) North Carolina vs. (2) Connecticut -- Syracuse, NY
I hate looking like I went with the "chalk" in this bracket with the #1 and #2 seeds meeting in the regional final, but here we are. Last year everyone was picking UConn because it was apparent, despite their #2 seed, that they were the most talented team. Here they sit again at #2, only this time they aren't the most talented team in their region, let alone the country. I don't think they've got enough guard play to stick with North Carolina. Should be an exciting game that's played in the 80's, but UConn just can't match the Heels punch-for-punch
Prediction: North Carolina

**Note: These picks are purely for entertainment purposes, and if you intend to wager any money based on the predictions I've made here, I suggest you use money that you are not very fond of.

Impress-ions

2005-03-10T22:22:00.000-06:00

Just got finished watching the replay of the Sox spring training game vs. the Rangers in Surprise, AZ(I like that name. It would be fun to answer the question "Where are you from?" and reply with simply "Surprise." The looks that people would give you after that answer would be priceless.)

Do I need to tell you again how great it is to be able to watch the new guys and unfamiliar faces 20-plus times before the season even starts? No? Well I just did, and it's probably not the last time I'm going to rave about it.

I came away very impressed with two players, Tadahito Iguchi and Brandon McCarthy.

McCarthy first: Brandon pitched 4 solid innings against almost a real major league line-up. -- A major league line-up that put up an impressive 860 runs scored last season thanks to All-stars like Micheal Young, Alfonso Soriano, and Hank Blalock. -- McCarthy gave up a double to Blalock in the first for his only base runner allowed during the game.

It wasn't just his performance on the field that made an impression on me. After he was done pitching, he did an in-game interview with Hawk and DJ where he said all the right things. (There are oodles of McCarthy quotes at the link included above, so go check it out.)

"You have to realize you have to be patient," McCarthy said. "These guys have paid their dues in front of me. Obviously, the guys there have a lot of time here. So it is kind of selfish of me to think I can go there right now. But when called up, I think I'll be extremely excited to take that opportunity."

McCarthy's stuff was not overpowering by any means, but that is what I've read in all of the scouting reports. Despite leading all of the minor leagues in strikeouts last season, he really isn't a strikeout pitcher. He relies on control, location, and changing speeds. And that's exactly what he did on Thursday afternoon under the clear Arizona sky, striking out just two in his 4 innings of work.

It appears as if right now McCarthy is penciled in as the #6 starter. In the article above they make it very clear that he's very close to major league ready, and would likely be the first option should one of the starting five falter.

Tadahito at Second: The one thing that I was not worried about when Kenny Williams decided to tap into the Asian market once again to fill the Sox second base position was Iguchi's stick. I'm fairly confident that he's going to be able to produce at league average for second basemen.(.260/.319/.401) But before today's game, I was much less confident in his defensive abilities at second.

Given little Matsui's fielding difficulties, specifically moving to his right and backhanding a ball, I was expecting some of the same from Iguchi. I had heard/read somewhere that the japanese were taught to round off the ball, because backhanding it is considered disrespectful. (It's entirely possible that I just made this up on my own. I'm known to do that during one of my frequent sugar-induced psychotic episodes.)

My fears were eased in the top of the 4th inning. With Mark Teixeira at the plate, McCarthy induced a groundball up the middle to the right of second base. Iguchi broke to his right, moving relatively slow compared to most second basemen. It appeared like he wouldn't be able to make the play as he was running with an upright gait instead of the hunched-over-so-they-can-backhand-and-throw-to-first-quickly style most players use, but just as the the ball reached the dirt Iguchi broke into a slide. -- It was a pop-up slide like you would see from a base runner who had just stolen second easily. -- He slid, fielded the ball cleanly, and fired and accurate shot over to first (Throw pictured above) all in one motion for the last out of the inning. Hawk made it sound like this a patented move that Iguchi perfected over in Japan. I don't know if that true, or this was just a one time thing, but I sure feel a lot better about Iguchi's defense after seeing just that one play.

Haiku
deep towards second
slide, grab, throw in one motion
His name? Iguchi

...or Die Trying

2005-03-09T19:29:00.000-06:00

With the debut of spring training games on the newly formed Comcast SportsNet Chicago, the White Sox unvieled the first part of their marketing plan in the form of TV commercials that feature the slogan "Win, or die trying."

I don't really have too much of an opinion either way on the new marketing plan. All I can say is that it sure is better than "The kids can play," and I have faith in Brooks Boyer doing a good job further implementing the rest of the plan

* * * * *
The Sox sure have been doing a lot of '...or die trying' in this first week of spring training. Monday's game featured four runners thrown out on the basepaths, including 3 at home plate. (This is the area where I would usually rant about the importance of not running into outs, but hey, it's spring training.)

There have only been two games televised so far, but already I'm loving the spring training coverage. It's not that Comcast is doing anything revolutionary with their broadcasts; I'm just enjoying getting to see a lot of the guys who I would never other wise get to see (the Casey Rogowskis, Ryan Sweeneys, and Brian Andersons of the Sox farm system). In the past we maybe got to see 2 spring training games on TV, and those were always against the Cubs, but now I'm looking forward to 19 more televised games. How great is that?

* * * * *
Better than Timo? -- The Sox signed Jeremy Giambi to help fill out their AAA roster. I imagine that he'll have some impressive numbers in the bandbox at Charlotte, but won't ever sniff an invite to the big club.

Spring Fling

2005-03-03T21:43:00.000-06:00

Story Time
So I had a dental appointment yesterday, and I hate the dentist. With it being the Sox opening spring training game, I took this opportunity to exaggerate my dental appointment into a dental emergency, with the intent of taking the day off an listening to the Sox game.

So I told my employer that I had a dental emergency and wouldn't be able to work on Wednesday. I went to my appointment -- in and out in under an hour, home before 10AM, counting the minutes until I could catch the Nats-Mets game on ESPN.

2PM arrives and I've pulled up the Colorado Rockies affiliate to listen to the game online. (I was sure that ESPN1000 wasn't going to carry the feed over the net.) Audio cuts out, and I get the repeating message that the Rockies game is available online though MLB. Immediately I assume that this is only through their pay service, which I don't have because I live in frickin' Chicago, so I head over to my stereo only to remember that I don't get AM reception in the basement.

Fuck! I don't ever leave the basement. Natural light hurts my eyes.

I head upstairs and settle in the only place I can find an operable radio, my brother's room, and quickly locate the White Sox broadcast on AM 1000. It's the middle of the first. They're running a commercial for Pep Boys, and I'm already bored. I turn on the little 13" GE TV he's got on top of his dresser -- Why not see what freak show Maury Povich has got on today, right?

Damn! The stupid cheap ass TV interferes with the radio such that all I get is static. -- TV off -- Bottom of the first, Pods up. Base hit, right side. -- Alright! Nice start in a new uni.

Rooney and Farmer are hardly mentioning the game, talking instead about the drive over and how they should expand the Highway. I pick up a Tiger-Direct magazine that await my brother's return from school. There's no comfortable way to sit in this room. I lie back on the bed, still flipping through the Tiger-Direct -- Ooh look cheap flash drives.

Pods steals second, Iguchi grounds out to the right side, and I'm out. Done, gone, asleep. The sandman sweeps me away 1 out into the spring training season. I slept through the entire game.

What a wasted day.

Big Hurt
According to the White Sox website Frank Thomas is has been given a clean bill of health and is due in Tucson on Monday. I'm still bearish on his return being anytime soon, and the quotes from Sox head trainer, Herm Schneider, don't do anything to instill confidence either.
"It will be a very slow process, and there's no, no, no, no, no timetable," Schneider said. "So, don't ask me when he will be ready to play because I'm not going to be able to answer that.

"The legs have to be strong and he really hasn't done anything since June of last season. It takes a while to get back into the swing of things. He's not a little guy. He's a big guy. So, you have to be safe."

WTF!?!
neither of the Sox two games has been televised, and I've only caught the passing glance of highlights on the local news, but I'm pretty sure this didn't happen.

Yesterday's box score, by way of ESPN

FINAL

COLORADO (8) AT CHI WHITE SOX (4)

 COLORADO         AB  R  H BI  CHI WHITE SOX    AB  R  H BI
 A Miles 2b        2  0  0  0  S Podsednik lf    3  0  3  0 
 J Nix ph-2b       2  0  0  0  R Sweeney lf      2  0  2  0 
 A Amezaga ph-ss   1  0  0  0  T Iguchi 2b       2  0  0  0 
 A Tracy dh        2  0  1  1  P Lopez pr-2b     1  1  0  0 
 J Salazar ph-dh   2  0  0  0  C Everett dh      2  0  0  0 
 T Helton 1b       2  0  1  0  C Rogowski ph-dh  3  1  1  0 
 R Shealy ph-1b    2  1  0  0  P Konerko 1b      3  0  1  0 
 M Holliday lf     2  0  0  0  J Toca 1b         2  0  1  2 
 L Gonzalez lf     2  0  0  0  J Dye rf          1  0  0  0 
 C Sullivan ph-lf  1  1  1  0  T Alvarez rf      2  0  0  0 
 B Hawpe rf        2  0  0  0  A Pierzynski c    1  0  0  0 
 J Piedra rf       3  3  3  1  C Widger c        3  0  0  0 
 G Atkins 3b       1  0  1  0  A Rowand cf       3  0  1  0 
 J Baker 3b        3  2  3  3  F Thomas cf       2  1  0  0 
 J Closser c       2  0  0  0  J Crede 3b        3  0  0  0 
 D Ardoin ph-c     2  0  0  1  J Fields 3b       1  0  1  1 
 C Barmes ss       2  0  0  0  J Uribe ss        2  1  2  0 
 D Relaford ss-2b  2  0  1  0  W Valdez ss       2  0  0  0 
 R Taylor cf       2  1  1  0  J Adkins p        0  0  0  0 
 C Freeman cf      2  0  1  2  C Politte p       0  0  0  0 
 J Wright p        0  0  0  0  S Takatsu p       0  0  0  0 
 M Merricks p      0  0  0  0  D Hermanson p     0  0  0  0 
 A Taylor p        0  0  0  0  D Marte p         0  0  0  0 
 J Young p         0  0  0  0  L Vizcaino p      0  0  0  0 
 J Lopez p         0  0  0  0  N Cotts p         0  0  0  0 
 S Chiasson p      0  0  0  0  F Diaz p          0  0  0  0 
 TOTALS           39  8 13  8  TOTALS           38  4 12  3

 COLORADO                  001 002 014 --  8
 CHI WHITE SOX             000 010 012 --  4

Lefty Handicap

2005-02-09T23:41:00.000-06:00

I have been on the record as saying I think that Jermaine Dye will have a "more productive" season than Magglio Ordonez. So it came as a surprise to me tonight while I was trying to put together line-ups, with and without Frank, just how bad Dye has been the last three seasons vs. RHP (.240/.306/.429). If Aaron Rowand had put up a line like that he'd be in Charlotte. On his career, Dye hasn't been nearly as bad (.268/.327/.463). I can take about .270/.330, but when struggle just to reach base 30 percent of the time, you don't have a place in my line-up unless you play catcher, and even then it's begrudgingly.

So anyway, here's the line-up I put together

vs. LHP                      vs. RHP

Rowand  .298/.361/.523       Spod     .284/.354/.404

Iggy*   .285/.365/.475       Iggy*    .260/.333/.415

Dye     .255/.354/.413       Everett  .288/.361/.501

Konerko .299/.360/.540       Konerko  .265/.338/.461

Crede   .274/.321/.457       Rowand   .285/.321/.457

Uribe   .264/.303/.453       Pierz    .305/.353/.450

Everett .238/.301/.354       Dye      .240/.306/.429

Pierz   .262/.287/.396       Uribe    .257/.304/.407 

Spod    .246/.312/.387       Crede    .248/.298/.434

* I just estimated the Iguchi lines. They are an estimate off of Clay Davenport's over at Baseball Prospectus.

The bottom third of that order vs. LHP is terrible. Carl Everett needs to seriously consider giving up switch hitting. Given his terrible line against lefties, I decided to replace Everett in the line-up. The problem is, with Whom?

Timo Perez? Nope -- .154/.201/.191 -- That line is so ugly it's actually humorous.
Willie Harris? Nope -- .186/.234/.233 -- I was complaining before the Iguchi signing about needing a platoon partner for Willie.
Ben Davis? Nope -- .229/.278/.361 -- Who else in on the bench?
Wilson Valdez? Maybe -- .273/.304/.455 -- Before the Iguchi signing, I was one of the few who actually felt comfortable with a Willie Harris/Wilson Valdez platoon. But these numbers aren't a great indicator as they represent 22AB's. I can't speak of what he did in the minors.
Ross Gload? -- .383/.420/.574 -- I guess we have a winner. Although these numbers are also from a ridiculously small sample size (47 AB's), I'd feel much more comfortable with Gload in the line-up.

LHP                   

Rowand  .298/.361/.523

Iggy*   .285/.365/.475

Dye     .255/.354/.413

Konerko .299/.360/.540

Crede   .274/.321/.457

Gload** .383/.420/.574

Uribe   .264/.303/.453

Pierz   .262/.287/.396 

Spod    .246/.312/.387



** Only 47 AB's

That's better, but it's still lacking.

And finally my line-ups for Frank's return.

LHP                          RHP

Rowand  .298/.361/.523       Spod     .284/.354/.404

Iggy*   .285/.365/.475       Iggy*    .260/.333/.415

Thomas  .259/.407/.563       Thomas   .263/.381/.515

Konerko .299/.360/.540       Konerko  .265/.338/.461

Dye     .255/.354/.413       Rowand   .285/.321/.457

Crede   .274/.321/.457       Pierz    .305/.353/.450

Uribe   .264/.303/.453       Dye      .240/.306/.429

Pierz   .262/.287/.396       Uribe    .257/.304/.407

Spod    .246/.312/.387       Crede    .248/.298/.434 

       

                             Bench

                             Everett  .288/.361/.501

Now the interesting decision is how to get Everett into the line-up against righties. He's too good to ride the pine. In fact He's got a better OPS than the other three outfielders, and trails only Frank.

Just thinking about how valuable that roster spot wasted by Timo Perez makes me sick to my stomach.

That $1M could have gone to Eric Young(.294/.383/.436), or even Josh Phelps (.309/.373/.535) who's probably no worse than Timo in the outfield.

The Sox were a woeful 21-34 against LHP last season, and I can't say they've improved on that, especially with Frank probably out for a little bit of time. If the sox have 55 games against lefties again next year and put up the same record, they'd have to go 69-38(31 games over .500) in the remaining games against righties to reach 90 victories. A lofty goal, I know, but one can dream right?...

I didn't state it before, but just so you don't yell at me, the numbers for all players are 3-year splits from ESPN unless otherwise noted.

AL Central -- Position by Position -- 1B

2005-02-04T18:07:00.000-06:00

Spurred on by this terrible article in the Tribune yesterday, which compared the Sox and Cubs, position by position, Cheat's Chisox Blog has emerged from hibernation. Rather than point out the obvious flaws in the article, or even bother to compare the Sox to that club on the northside, I've decided to give a position by position rundown of the AL Central. I'm not gonna try and use this comparison to predict an order of finish, but rather just to help give a scouting report for the entire AL Central.

Player	Team	Career OPS+	2004 OPS+
Konerko	Chi Sox	111	123
Broussard	Cleveland	109	124
Morneau	Minnesota	109	122
Pena	Detroit	109	112
Sweeney	Kansas City	120	123

Without a doubt, this is them most even position battle in the AL Central. Sweeney checks in as the grandfather of the group at age 30. He's also been the most feared hitter of the bunch over his career. Sweeney's plate discipline eroded last season from a career line of (.305/.377/.498) to (.287/.347/.504), but if it should return, he's once again the best of the bunch.

Morneau is the baby of this group at age 23, and could improve on his already impressive 2004 totals(.271/.340/.536). Morneau hit 41 HR's between Rochester and Minneapolis last season. If he starts to hit for average like he did in the minors(career .310 hitter in the minors), he could surpass Sweeney as the most feared first baseman in the AL Central.

Broussard had a break out season at age 27, but I would be surprised to see him improve on his 2004 season(.275/.370/.488). His counting stats may improve, but that will probably only be because of increased playing time.

Konerko broke in with the sox as a good average, decent power first baseman. After a disappointing second half in his All-Star season of 2002, and a horrible season in 2003, Konerko rebounded to put up the best numbers of any first baseman in the AL in 2004 with 41 HRs and 117 RBIs. Although Konerko's average has taken a little bit of a dip, if he can continue to take advantage of the friendly offensive conditions at USCF, he should reach the 35HR 100+ RBI plateau once again.

Carlos Pena has yet to really put together a productive season as a firstbaseman in the major leagues. A career line of .244/.331/.456 isn't exactly what I'm looking for from a position where a premium is put on offensive production.

Duke of Bridgeport

2004-12-23T01:24:00.000-06:00

How would you like having a pitcher who put up this line on your staff?

W   L   GS    ERA

5  15   25   9.08

That's the cumulative pitching line accumulated by the mish-mash of AAA guys that the Sox trotted out to be sacrificed to the Major League Baseball gods every 5th day. Don't stare at it too long. It's ugly, and I can't guarantee your computer(or your eyes) will ever be the same again after extended viewing. Three of those wins came from when the sox were out of contention for all intents and purposes.

Needless to say, the #5 spot was a hole that the Sox have struggled to fill. Yesterday, Kenny Williams took a step towards filling that hole with the signing of the Methuselah-esque Orlando Hernandez. How KW was able to keep him away from Brian Sabean, I'll never know.

The cynic in me says that KW targeted El Duque because he had more wins last year(8) than the two best remaining candidates at the time, Odalis Perez and Wade Miller, who each had seven.

When comparing this year's original starting five with last year's, well, there's no comparison.

2004               ERA+      2005               ERA+

Buehrle             125      Buehrle             125

Loaiza               98      Garcia              116

Garland             101      Hernandez           116

Schoeneweis          92      Garland             101

Wright               81      Contreras            95

With the additions of Garcia, Contreras, and Hernandez it's clear the type of pitcher that KW is trying to build this team around. He's targeted guys who can get the strikeout, guys who miss bats. None of them have a spectacular G/F ratio, something that should be taken into account given USCF's recent renovation, but all have good "stuff" and strike guys out.

It remains to be seen where El Duque falls in the pecking order of the rotation, but it's fairly irrelevant. He's going to pitch every 5 days, when healthy, and it doesn't matter what number is attached to his side. The opposition doesn't care, and neither do I.

The Sox still lack an "ace"; but Contreras and Garcia have ace stuff, Buehrle does nothing but win despite his average stuff, and El Duque is one hell of a big game pitcher. I'd have no problem handing him the ball for game 1 of a post-season series, but that's getting way ahead of myself.

Career stats

              IP   HR  BB     K    ERA   G/F  ERA+

1998       141.0   11  52   131   3.13   .96   143 

1999       214.1   24  87   157   4.12   .80   109

2000       195.2   34  51   141   4.51   .71   112

2001        94.2   19  42    77   4.85   .65    92

2002       146.0   17  36   113   3.64   .82   120

2003        84.2    9  36    84   3.30   .85   136

Career     876.1  114 304   703   3.96   .79   116

That G/F ratio is troubling, but at this point with the Sox actually having a 5th starter, who am I to complain.
- Guaranteed two years to an ancient pitcher with injury issues? Not gonna complain.
- $8M guaranteed? Not gonna complain.
It's been a long time since the sox weren't trotting out a t-ball stand of a pitcher every 5 days, so I'm just going to bask in this for a little bit and leave my reservations for another day.

Now if KW would just forge Timo Perez's birth certificate to make him 39 years old, so he could ship him off to San Francisco for prospects, I would be happy.

Salary info

2004-12-21T18:07:00.000-06:00

Player    Salary(in Millions)

Paul Konerko         8.75

Frank Thomas         8.00

Jermaine Dye         4.00

Carl Everett         4.00

AJ Pierzynski        2.25

Aaron Rowand         1.50*

Joe Crede            0.45#

Juan Uribe           2.15

Willie Harris        0.40#

Ross Gload           0.40#

Ben Davis            1.00

Jamie Burke          0.40

Scott Podsednik      0.55

Timo Perez           1.00

Mark Buehrle         5.75

Freddy Garcia        8.00

Jose Contreras       6.00

Orlando Hernandez    3.50

Jon Garland          3.40

Shingo Takatsu       2.50

Dustin Hermanson     2.00

Luis Vizcaino        1.00*

Cliff Politte        0.90

Damaso Marte         1.50

Jon Adkins           0.40#

Neal Cotts           0.40#

Kevin Walker         0.10

                   $71.30M

* Indicates estimated arbitration salary.

# Indicates player has yet to have 3 full years of Major League service.

Salary is estimated against league minimum.

There's one roster spot left off there. The Sox need 5th starter and a middle infielder. With the addidition of both of those, one of Neal Cotts and Jon Adkins will be dropped.

Edit: Updated to include El Duque signing. Roster sits at 25 men. Someone on there is not gonna make the team.

Updated (1/6) -- Added AJ Pierzynski, that makes 26, plus Kevin Walker getting $100K guaranteed.

Non-tendered options

2004-12-21T14:48:00.000-06:00

Last night was the deadline for teams to non-tender players who were eligible for arbitration. Most of the players who aren't offered arbitration are AAA fodder. (think Timo Perez) But last night brought a few surprises, and players who can help the Sox in areas of need.

Ben Davis was non-tendered, but then resigned for $1M earlier today. The Sox saved a few hundred thousand dollars with that move, as Davis made $1.4M last season.

The three players that should interest the Sox are Alex Cora (brother of White Sox third base coach Joey Cora), David Eckstein and Wade Miller.

Miller is the prize of the non-tenders. His a better pitcher than most of the free-agents who signed those cookie-cutter 3/$21+M deals. If he didn't have injury concerns, he'd be looking for a Russ Ortiz type deal. Miller would be a great fit for the Sox because he would slide right into the role he had on the 'Stros as a solid middle of the rotation starter. Plus he's learned how to pitch in a hitters park, with the short porch at Minute Maid park. He gives up a few walks, but allows fewer hits than innings pitched and has a good strikeout rate(7.72/9IP). His ERA+ shows you his true value.(

Year     ERA+

2000       96

2001      134

2002      130

2003      107

2004      129

Career    116

The one drawback to signing Miller is his durability. He went down last season after just 15 starts due to a shoulder injury. He elected to rest his shoulder instead of opting for surgery. Dr. Lewis Yokum, who's opinion the White Sox trust, has given Miller a clean bill of health and said that Miller should be ready for the start of the season. In the last 4 years, Miller has only eclipsed 200 innings pitched once.

Miller has indicated that he'd like to stay in Houston though.

"Obviously, I got to look at it optimistically," Miller said. "Hopefully I can still get something done with Houston. It's still not over yet. Anything can happen now. I feel good. I'll start throwing in two weeks."

I wouldn't expect him to be signed anytime soon to another team, given his current Magglio-like condition. He's likely to end up signing an incentive-laden deal that puts him back in Houston for at least the 2005 season.

* * * * *
David Eckstein was non-tendered by the Angels on the heels of their signing of Orlando Cabrera for the lofty sum of $32M over 4 years. Eckstein is the portrait of the "grinder" that KW has tried to sell White Sox fans on since last off-season. The most important numbers from Eckstein are theses, .281/.355/.384, his 3-year numbers vs. LHP.

Eckstein made $2.15M last season, and may be looking for a starting job. He could get one, as the Cardinals still need a SS and 2B, and Placido Polanco accepted arbitration from the Phillies. He has only played 14 games at 2B on his career, but that's likely where he'd play on the sox, Juan Uribe is far superior defensively at short. Eckstein's not gonna set the world on fire with his bat or his glove, but he would be a good fit for the Sox in the Tony Graffanino role.

* * * * *
The final non-tender of interest to the Sox is that of Alex Cora. He'll probably get at least a nepotism-induced offer from the Sox. Being the brother of the White Sox third base coach does have it's benefits. Cora is a good defensive 2B, but is essentially a Willie Harris clone. He's just been given longer to develop. Cora has been in a platoon situation for the last few years, for the same reasons I want peapod in a platoon; he can't hit lefties(or has at least been given little opportunity to prove he can).

All things being equal, I'd rather have Eckstein. He's more of a stolen base threat, and just seems to be that scrappy type of guy in the mold the Sox are trying to build this team around. Sadly, I think nepotism is stronger force than a player who's better equipped to fill the position.

Deck the Halls

2004-12-17T21:37:00.000-06:00

Monday the White Sox were able to free up some payroll room by moving Carlos Lee to the Brewers. Everyday since has been filled with anticipation of what would be done with that money. First it was Randy Johnson, though it probably was just Javier Vazquez on the cheap. Then there was a Mystery Team in the Matt Clement bidding.

It's fairly obvious who the mystery team was. Cleveland has been in it from the start, he was their #1 target. Boston jumped into the fray when Pavano appeared to be a Yankee. Anaheim has always been hunt, as has Seattle.

As of right now, it appears to be a three team race; Boston and Anaheim with the big market money, and the White Sox with a solid offer and the lure of the city itself. Much as Magglio has (somewhat) openly campaigned to remain in Chicago, but for the other team, Clement appears willing to give the home team discount to the cross-town rivals. It's not just the city that's selling itself(his wife likes it here, and doesn't want to move), it's the situation.

In Boston, Clement would be counted on to fill in at the number 2 spot behind Curt Schilling, the same spot that was just vacated by a fleeing Pedro Martinez. With Schilling out for at least a month, Clement would be the "Ace" of that staff at the beginning of the year, and it's not clear whether he'd welcome that added pressure.

The whole situation has me waking up early everyday to scan newspapers from other cities and Rotoworld. I find myself rushing home to check out the internet message board rumors, which are almost as accurate as Peter Gammons or Ken Rosenthal. I've developed the strange habit of having some form of sports talk radio in the background everywhere I go. Who needs Christmas music? Not me.

So here's where I was gonna write about how Clement compared to others on the market, but in the passed 10 minutes there was this,

Vince has a piece on exactly that posted already
Clement signs with Boston

I have this, but there's not too much point to even going further at this point.

               ERA+

      Clement     Pavano    Perez

2002      112         79      126

2003      103         94       89

2004      123        137      127

Career     98        100      102

* * * * *
The most upsetting thing in all of this, is apparently there was some interest from Clement, and a matching offer probably would have brought him here. So why couldn't the Sox just pony up the extra $1.33M/yr?

Sox sign Timo Perez. There's your reason. What value is paying your sixth best, yes sixth best, hitting outfield option anything more than league minimum? What's the point in even having a 6th outfield option on the 25 man roster? 6 options in order(Aaron Rowand, Jermaine Dye, Carl Everett, Ross Gload, Scott Podsednik, Timo Perez). Gload and Everett can't field a lick, but they each still have at least as much range as Timo. But at least Timo can be that speedy lefty bat of the bench. Oh wait, Podsednik, Everett, and Gload are all lefties, and while the latter two are not fleet of foot they are just as fast as Timo.

The Timo signing is nothing short of flushing $1M down the toilet. He brings nothing to the table.

* * * * *
Now here's a troubling thought. The Sox just shipped out Carlos Lee for the box of peanuts that is Scott Podsednik, and according to Joe Cowley, part of the reason was his situational hitting. The sox just signed Timo Perez, and cited his situational hitting as an asset. WTF?

Why value 1/4 of a players at-bats as more valuable than the other 3/4? Timo was a woeful .205/.253/.281 in his 171AB's without anyone on base. But since nobody was on base I guess the sox didn't care. They don't seem to understand that in order for a player to get an RBI, to have a RISP AB, that somebody needs to get on base first.

At this point the White Sox are the least Sabermetricly inclined baseball team in all of the majors. They think they are studying the players well, but they are using the smallest sample sizes, and crazy situational stats, to help justify their bizarre roster moves. They are shunning, rather than embracing, their offensively charged ballpark. They have ditched the all-or-nothing offense, and will quickly come to find they have replaced it with a little-or-nothing offense. At this point, I have to believe they are the most frustrating team in baseball to the astute baseball fan. Cases can be made for the Mets, Nats, and DBacks but in general White Sox fans are just happy as clams if you spend money. So I would wager that most would be satisfied if they had "upgraded" like the other three mentioned.

Lee Gawn!!!

2004-12-13T19:39:00.000-06:00

Well it finally happened. Kenny Williams has officially gone crazy. He just turned one of the Sox best hitters into somebody who can run fast and an average bullpen arm.

Brewers get:                        Sox get:

Carlos Lee($8M,$8.5M option)        Scott Podsednik($550K, $1.9M)

                                    Luiz Vizciano($1M+)

                                    Player to be named later

If I were to evaluate this trade strictly by the numbers, it's an outright fleecing by Bob Melvin. I'll get into that later. But first, largely just to make myself feel better about this trade, here's some rationalization.

Carlos Lee had worn out his welcome on the southside. He hadn't worn out his welcome with me, but if you read between the lines back in September and October, it was clear that the White Sox brass was tired of Lee's antics(Although it's not totally clear what these may have been, I think it boiled down to him not getting every last drop out of his resevoir of talent.)

Here's a portion of something I wrote on Soxtalk back in September.

This[not mining all of his ability] is the complaint with Carlos. There is no doubt in my mind that if he wanted to he could steal 25 bags a year. There is no doubt in my mind that if he wanted to he could have an OBP above .375. Carlos has a ton of talent. He is able to do so many things well, as evidenced by his singles laden 28 game hit streak, or his 13 HR(1.134OPS) July just after Maggs and Frank went down, or his .407 OBP after the ASB in '02 when [Jerry Manuel] was in his ear before every AB telling him to be more patient, or his vastly improved defense.

Carlos has a hard time staying focused. He wants to be considered a GG outfielder. He's taken pride in the effort that he's put in there. Sooner or later he'll get caught up in another aspect of his game (maybe the longball) and his defense and other areas will suffer.

Not that you need much of a reminder, but here's what we just traded.

        BA   OBP   SLG   EqA   FRAA   WARP

1999  .293  .312  .463  .251     -8    2.1

2000  .301  .345  .484  .266     -1    4.8

2001  .269  .321  .468  .261     -4    3.6

2002  .264  .359  .484  .281      1    5.5

2003  .291  .331  .499  .274     -2    5.5

2004  .305  .366  .525  .289     14    8.4

And here's what we got in return.

        BA   OBP   SLG   EqA   FRAA   WARP

2003  .314  .379  .443  .290      0    6.7

2004  .244  .313  .364  .249     -5    3.6

It should be noted that Lee is actually a few months younger than Podsednik, so while it looks like we've gotten our hands on a young guy who struggled through a sophomore slump, and is likely to rebound. In reality we just got older an less talented. Podsednik is a .265 hitter in his 9 minor league seasons. In those 9 seasons, he stole more than 30 bases just once. He stole successfully about once every 14.5AB's, while walking once every 8.5AB's. To compare, Willie Harris was a .290 minor league hitter, who stole more than 30 bases 3 times at a rate of once every 12AB's, walking once every 8.4AB's.

Minors      BA    SLG     AB/BB     AB/SB

Podsednik .265   .347       8.5      14.5

Harris    .290   .415       8.4      12.0

Harris actually hit better, stole more often, and walked at the same rate as Podsednik during their minor league careers. Harris is two years younger than Podsednik, and with some patience could absolutely become that table setter he was at the minor league level. There's nothing in Podsednik's past to suggest that he will even remotely live up to his fluke of a 2003 season.(Think Esteban Loiaza)

* * * * *
I know that we also got a right-handed relief pitcher, Luiz Vizciano, in the deal. I've never seen him pitch, or ever heard anything about him, so I'll refrain from bad mouthing him here. Who knows what we've got there. It could be Damaso Marte, or it could be Billy Koch. My guess is that he will fall somewhere in between.

* * * * *
Money, lettuce, green, dough, moolah, clams, benjamins, CASH; That's what this deal was about. By making the deal, the Sox free up about $6+M in payroll for the upcoming season. That money will likely be used to add a free agent starting pitcher.

Rumors around the internet were that the Sox were the mystery team that jumped into the Matt Clement derby, although I think landing Odalis Perez is more likely. Just for the sake of making KW look better, here's how the trade looks for both teams in terms of net WARP. I used a players average WARP over the last 3 years(only 2 for Podsednik).

             Brewers

Lose                       Gain         Net

Podsednik(5.15)         Lee 6.43      (1.05)

Vizciano(2.33)  Replacement  ??? 

PTBNL(0)



           White Sox(w/ Clement)

Lose                       Gain         Net

Lee(6.43)        Podsednik 5.15         5.85

Jackson(.9)      Vizciano  2.33

                 Clement   5.7



           White Sox(w/ Perez)

Lose                       Gain         Net

Lee(6.43)        Podsednik 5.15         5.65

Jackson(.9)      Vizciano  2.33

                 Perez     5.5

I know that I'm going to have somebody emailing me disputing this; but assuming Podsednik is Lee's replacement, Vizciano is thriller's replacement, and Clement/Perez is the replacement for the replacement level 5th starter we've had out there for the last 2 seasons, this deal actually does make the sox better. Of course Maggs is swapped for Dye, and we lose a few wins there, but Maggs wasn't in the line-up for much of the year last season, so in theory if Dye out-performs the Borchard/Timo/Gload/Maggs platoon we had out there in RF last season we could actually add to last year's win total from that spot also.

All of this is theoretical, and the Brewers net win/loss depends on who they get to fill Vizciano's shoes. It's hard for me to wrap my brain around the Sox actually being better from this deal, but it all boils down to what does KW do with that money freed up in the trade?

In an interview on WGN radio he just kind of giggled when asked about a certain free agent pitcher being targeted with the excess funds. It was the same type of reaction he had the night before the Dye acquisition, and the trade that just went down today. So look for something to get done very shortly.

Sox Sign Dye

2004-12-10T21:51:00.000-06:00

I wonder what Nancy Faust will play when Jermaine strides towards the plate next April. I hope she's on her organ playing "Live and Let Die". For those of you who wonder what that would sound like, I suggest renting, better yet buying, the movie Gross Point Blank. #1) Because there's nothing funnier than a hitman going to his high school reunion, and #2) because there is a scene where John Cusack's character enters a Kwiki-Mart and there is a elevator music version of GnR's Live and Let Die playing. So you'd get the feel of what I'm talking about.

I like the Dye signing much better than the Hermanson one for many reasons.

Frank is not healthy -- I've heard that Frank is probably not going to be ready to go in spring training. He's still wearing a protective boot on his foot, although it's reportedly just a walking cast. It takes a lot of time for that big body to heal. And this time we're not talking about a non weight bearing part of the body like the triceps. This is Frank's foot. Frank's plant foot. The one that has to support his (listed) 275 lbs. frame. That weight certainly doesn't do a lot to speed up the recovery process.
Dye will out-perform Maggs -- I know, I know. You think I'm crazy now. But think about it. Maggs traveled all over god's green earth searching for a doctor that would give him an answer he wanted to hear. Today's workout, where Maggs was going to prove his health to prospective teams, was cancelled. Why? Hmmm... I wonder. Could it be that he's not as healthy as he'd like us to believe?

Dye is coming off of a solid, though not spectacular, season in which he was finally recovered from that horrific leg injury suffered in the 2002 playoffs. He will benefit from playing 81 games in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Magglio? Who knows. Now I should qualify my assertion that Dye will "outperform" Maggs. I mean that Dye will have better counting stats than will Magglio. I would take a bet of Dye's HR+RBI vs. Maggs HR+RBI, so long as Maggs doesn't somehow end up in Coors field.
Dye is less than half the price of Maggs --With the sox limited budget, they have to maximize their production from every dollar. Maggs was offered a contract somewhere in the neighborhood of $13M/yr. The least we would have paid him at arbitration was $12.2M. Dye checks in at $4M this year, and $5M next season, significantly less than Maggs. Sure the rate stats are probably going to be lower than Maggs, but I don't think they'll be that significantly below Maggs to warrant spending the extra $8M.

Here's the ZiPS projection for Dye,

 AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG

481  78  126  26  2  22  75  48 109   3  .262  .335  .462

along with my own that I made prior to having seen the ZiPS on the night of the signing.

.270+/.340/.490 -- 30 HR's 90+ RBI's 120K's

Now comes the truly interesting part of the White Sox off-season. How creative can KW be in his attempt to improve this team? The Sox need to solidify the rotation, and at the very least need a platoon partner for Willie Harris(.186/.234/.233 vs. LHP). He has to make this happen without adding to the payroll, which depending on arbitration awards and who actually makes the team, is currently about $70M.

Current trading pieces include Carlos Lee(highest value of anyone being shopped), Paul Konerko(gets an extra $500K if traded, lowering his value), and Jon Garland(trading him wouldn't do much to strengthen the rotation as it eliminates one of the starting 4 already penciled in)

I would expect the Sox to add a utility middle infielder who can hit lefties even if they don't make a trade, but I don't expect that to happen anytime soon. KW will need more time to squeeze enough money out of JR to make that happen. Hopefully Miguel Cairo is still available at that point. Placido Polanco would be too much to ask.

Well, times up here at the Library. I'll do my best to get some updates on here from home. Anytime that there is something exciting going on in the White Sox universe I'll be sure to drop by. Things should return to normal around Christmas. Hopefully.

Sox Sign Hermanson

2004-12-10T20:37:00.000-06:00

Yeah, Yeah, I could include a link, but if you didn't already know this, you've been living under a rock. No, it's not a big signing, or even a good one(we'll get to that later), but it was the first action from KW and the Sox brass this off-season.

So first let's take a look at the contract. Hermanson is due to make $2M in '05, $3M in '06, and has an option for $3.5M in '07 or a $500K buyout. That's $5.5M in guaranteed money to a guy who's been barely above replacement level for the last three seasons. Not a wise investment for a cost-conscious franchise.

Hermanson's best years are far behind him. He posted three solid seasons as a starter in Montreal from '97 to '99, with ERA+ marks of 114, 131, and 112. Since then, however, he has failed to post anything significantly better than league average, with an ERA+ of 104 in 2003 being his best showing.

There could be a positive to the Hermanson signing, though. According to most, he has 4 pitches. So you'd think that he would be able to mix it up and get some people out.

I happened to catch a lot of the Giants' games down the stretch when Hermanson was the closer. He seemed to thrive on the pressure of the late game situation. His numbers tend to bear that out, despite the poor ERA from the pen, Hermanson had some good peripherals.

  IP   H   R  ER HR  BB   K   BAA

27.0  22  14  13  2  11  28  .224

The key to his success in the pen is to prevent the Garland-like big inning, like the one he gave up to the Dodgers that allowed them to clinch the NL West. Here's how he fared in his 29 relief appearances last year.

0 ER: 24 

1 ER: 1

2 ER: 2

3 ER: 0

4 ER: 2

To give you some more numbers to chew on, here's the ZiPS projection for Hermanson.

 W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA

 5   7  41  14  105  114   60  18  39  74  5.14

Probably because I'm a White Sox fan, and partially because I'm an eternal optimist, I'm pretty sure that he'll be better than the projections indicate.

My problem with this signing stems from the fact that I think the Sox are rather deep when it comes to bullpen arms on the cusp of contributing at the major league level. Cotts and Adkins should be back, though I think one might not make it(more on that in a minute). Bajenaru, Munoz, Diaz, Matt Smith and Josh Fields(the other one) are all going to get a shot to make the big league club out of camp. Nobody expected Cotts or Adkins to make the squad last year, and nobody expects these 5 to make it this year, but at least one of them will. Here's hoping it's Munoz as a LOOGY so that Cotts can get some serious work down in AAA.

I think that Adkins showed late in the season that his early success may have been a fluke, and Cotts disappointed late in September. I only expect one of them to be a contributing member to the Sox this season. I can't say which, it's just a feeling I have. Adkins is an anomaly; he seemed to get hit harder when he had more movement on his pitches. And Cotts has a that straight sneaky fastball, which if a player cheat on it ends up in the seats. Now that 2004 is over, I think my biggest regret from the season was that Cotts didn't get more time to develop at AAA. He would have benefited greatly from 100+ innings at Charlotte, learning how to pitch in a bandbox and refine the pitch that he needs to master in order to be successful at the major league level, the change-up.

All in all, Kenny could have made a worse signing, but I don't think that this one really does much to improve our team. I would have preferred Chris Hammond, or Jim Mecir, but I don't make the decisions. I just get to write about them.

Distracted

2004-12-10T19:47:00.000-06:00

It's been quite a while. I could give a laundry list of reasons why there haven't been any updates, but here's the three main ones.

My computer got severely messed up over Thanksgiving. I currently have internet access, but only on a 5+ year old laptop. Needless to say, it's not the fastest machine on the planet. I'm severely limited in my multitasking ability. This makes putting together anything of substance here very difficult.
The White Sox have not been particularly active -- There's just not much to write about, unless you wanna read another article on steroids. I know I don't.
Relationships have gotten in the way -- No explanation necessary.

Enough with the I'm-sorry-I-haven't-been-around routine. You don't care. You just want to read some interesting stuff about the White Sox. I've got a couple of hours here at the library on a real machine, we'll see what I can crank out on the recent deals in that amount of time.

Minor Dealings

2004-11-24T17:37:00.000-06:00

Wow. I completely bailed on the blog for the past week. I just haven't really had anything worthwhile to add, so rather than trying to squeeze an entry out of nothing, I elected to completely abandon it instead. Have no fear, I have not disappeared entirely, and neither have the sox.

Last week they made a few roster moves to finalize their 40-man roster.

...The White Sox purchased the contracts of right-handers Kris Honel and Matt Smith, and infielder Pedro Lopez from Double-A Birmingham. They also purchased the contracts of right-hander Sean Tracey, left-hander Paulino Reynoso and infielder Casey Rogowski from Single-A Winston-Salem.

Basically, they just added those players who they valued enough to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Currently, the Sox roster has 37 players on it, making them eligible to select players in the Rule 5. It also means there was room available to protect other players.

The Sox lost Rudy Yan and Ryan Wing to the Texas Rangers when they were removed from the 40-man. Yan isn't really much of a loss. He could steal some bases, but you can't steal first base. Wing was injured and didn't pitch in '04. The Sox just figured that the he wouldn't get claimed; Wrong. The Rangers scouts remembered both Wing and Yan from the Carl Everett deal in '03.

* * * * *
The Sox also made their first free agent signing of the season, inking former Giant and Padre Kevin Walker(complete stats). This is essentially a non-signing. The way I read the press release, he is only guaranteed $100k, and would only make the reported $550k if he somehow makes the 25-man roster. He is a left-handed pitcher, so, you never know. He's strangely more effective against righties. Somewhere, Dave Sanders is crying.

* * * * *
A little birdie told me the Baseball America top ten prospect list for the White Sox, even though it's not released on the Web until the 29th. I'm putting together a little something, in between avoiding my family and watching the Bears blow another game on national TV.

Tracking the Market

2004-11-17T23:08:00.000-06:00

Yesterday, I posted a small sample of what the current free agent market looked like. There was a small mathematical error in it, but at least the premise was solid. I was attempting to determine the value GM's were placing on free agents, using the all-encompassing stat WARP. With the signing of Troy Percival today, and the Cory Lidle signing yesterday, I've got a slightly better picture.

On average, GM's are paying $1.13M per win over replacement level. I'm keeping a spreadsheet, and will keep you updated as the market progresses.

This post, over at USSMariner, examines the same thing, but includes a small "quote" from a member of a baseball front office who makes it seem like maybe(hopefully) not everyone will be grossly overpaid.

* * * * *
I just found this article, by studes, over at harball times about how players age, their contracts, and Brian Sabean. It included this little nugget,

As I understand it, Vizquel will be paid a base salary of $2.5 million next year and $2.4 million the following two years. He'll get about half of his $3.75 million bonus in 2007, and the rest will be deferred until 2008 and 2009, which lowers the overall cost of the contract.

You see that sox fans, that's a deferred contract. I can't stand hearing a fan complain about the cheap ownership trying to defer the cost of a contract, and then in the next breath say look how much Team "B" paid for player "A". They all do it.

* * * * *
The hits just keep coming. I found this piece, by Scott Long, over at "Will Carrol Presents..." about the White Sox fascination with the latin ball player.

Blogosphere Reactions

2004-11-17T01:18:00.000-06:00

With a few notable free agent signings on Tuesday, I thought I would clip a few notes from other bloggers to grab some other fans' reactions.

The Nationals made the biggest splash of the day, signing Christian Guzman and Vinny Castilla.

John at Washington Baseball writes on Castilla,

"...But, I do like people who know how to walk. So if it was a choice between of signing either one of those guys at 2 years and $6M, then I would have taken Castilla. If we need RFK to be a hitters park for Castilla to pay off, maybe they'll move the fences ;-)

"Ick. I'll cross my fingers."

And of losing multiple draft picks,

"...By the way, we lose three draft picks (Castilla is a Type A free agent, Guzman a type B).

"Ick."

Meanwhile, SuperNoVa over at The Nats Blog chooses to pull a Monty Python, and look on the bright side,

"...What's more, the salaries of Castilla/Guzman ($3.1 and $4.2 million) are $200k less than last years' salaries for Orlando Cabrera and Tony Batista ($6 and $1.5 million).

"So Bowden picked up at least .004 in team OBP and perhaps .002 in team SLG while saving $200k over last year! This should at least translate into .05 additional victories this year.

"Baby steps, Nats fans. Baby steps."

Aaron Gleeman isn't as kind over at The Hardball Times,

"The whole thing reads like a really cruel joke played on the new baseball fans in Washington: I have good news and bad news. The good news is that you now have a major-league baseball team to root for. The bad news is that your brand new GM just made his big splash by signing Guzman and Castilla as the left side of his infield. (Okay, so I can see where that might be more sad than funny for a lot of people, but I've been laughing since I first read about it last night.)"

There was similar pessimism over the Cory Lidle signing by the Phillies. Mike, of Mike's Baseball Rants writes,

"The Phils guaranteed themselves another 86-win season by signing Cory Lidle to a two-year contract today.

"Lidle, ever the second-half pitcher, fooled the Phils with 5-2 record and 3.90 ERA in the ten starts after he was acquired last season."

Fans in Philly and DC don't have a monopoly on questioning their respective GM's decisions. In San Francisco Jon of Only Baseball Matters questions the need for Omar Vizquel,

"...After the disastrous Neifi Perez deal, Sabean decided that two years for a washed up shortstop wasn't enough. No, he wanted to make sure that the team was hamstrung for an extra year with this next deal.

"Seriously, what the hell is going on with Sabean? Why would Deivi Cruz be unable to handle 130 or so games at short?"

I'm sure there's sox fans out there who are disappointed by missing out on both Vizquel and Guzman. But it could be worse; we could be paying exorbitant sums of money to suck, something we can do without even having to spend a dime. So at least we've got that going for us. Which is nice.

Saved

2004-11-16T16:28:00.000-06:00

Kenny Williams has been saved from himself this offseason. First it was Vizquel going to San Francisco for 3 years/$12.25M. Then today, Christian Guzman was snatched up by new Nationals GM Jim Bowden, of worst show on TV fame, for 4 years/$16.8M, along with Vinny Castilla (2 years/$6.2M)

The market appears to have been set, and unlike the last couple seasons, it seems that GMs are once again opening up their pocketbooks. Here's a chart showing approximately how much they are paying for Wins Above Replacement.

Player        avgWARP      $/year     $/WARP

Vizquel          4.30        4.08      $0.95M

Guzman           2.83        4.20      $1.48M

Castilla         2.60        3.10      $1.19M

AVG              3.24        3.91      $1.21M

Polanco          6.13        ????      ?????

I averaged the last three seasons from each player to determine avgWARP. On average, GM's are paying $1.21M for a win above a replacement player. Using this admittedly tiny sample size, Placido Polanco would figure to earn about $7.4M at free agency. I don't think he'll get that much, but the point is that he's a much better value than the others.

Guzman'd

2004-11-15T19:09:00.000-06:00

With Omar Vizquel removed from the White Sox off-season plans, Bruce Levine is reporting that KW will turn his attention to two other Clayton-like replacements, Christian Guzman and Pokey Reese.

Christian Guzman and Pokey Reese!!! If one of those two players are what you are hinging your off-season on, you're in trouble.

Guzman signed a long-term contract back in 2000. He delivered in his first season of the new contract with a .302/.337/.477 season. Since then, he has failed to record a season with an OBP above .311 or a slugging percentage above .388. His career year in 2001 was fueled by the ability to hit away from home(.315/.348/.470), something he has failed to do in every other season of his career. Here's his career splits, which include his career year.

        AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS   

Home   .282 .321 .413 .735   

Away   .249 .284 .350 .634

I think the problem stems from Guzman's style of hitting. He's a slap hitter who hits a lot of ground balls, with a career 1.98 GB:FB ratio, taking advantage of the quick turf at the Rollerdome. His splits on turf, obviously, are very similar to his road splits.

        AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS   

Grass  .255 .287 .353 .639    

Turf   .274 .315 .404 .719

If the sox were to sign him, he would be playing 150 games a year on grass, where he posts just a .639 OPS on his career. I would hope that the Sox would sign a guy who is more likely to succeed at USCF. A guy who has some HR's and lots of doubles would probably turn into a lot of HR's in 2005.

Here's a comparison of the White Sox two main shortstop targets, along with the two players who filled that position in 2004. EqA, equivalent Average, is an all inclusive offensive statistic. FRAA, Fielding Runs Above Average, is a measure of how many runs a player saves with his defense, as compared to an average defender. WARP, Wins Above Replacement Player, is a measure of how many more wins a player provides above what a replacement player would give. WARP is a cumulative stat, that is, the more seasons a player has played, the higher their WARP would be expected to be. Each players years of service is listed in parentheses to aid in understanding their WARP.

Jaun Uribe(4)                   Christian Guzman(6)

Year     EqA   FRAA   WARP      Year     EqA   FRAA    WARP

2002    .210     17    3.0      2002    .227     -1     2.0 

2003    .236      8    2.4      2003    .234     -5     2.0

2004    .264      9    5.3      2004    .233     17     4.5

Career  .241     31   12.3      Career  .229    -24    10.3







Pokey Reese(8)                  Jose Valentin(11)

Year     EqA   FRAA   WARP      Year     EqA   FRAA    WARP

2000    .244     14    4.6      2000    .269      1     5.5

2001    .226     -5    1.3      2001    .274      0     4.0

2002    .249     10    4.0      2002    .261      3     3.8

2003    .208      4     .7      2003    .257      8     4.8

2004    .194      4     .7      2004    .244      9     3.8

Career  .235     53   20.5      Career  .255     10    38.4

You can see that despite his reputation as a poor defender, Jose Valentin has actually been above average on his career. Similarly, despite his reputation as a good defender, Christian Guzman has actually been a below average defender.

Guzman had just the first above average season defensively of his career in 2004, when he ranked as one of the top shortstops in baseball. This has to be tempered with him ranking as one of the worst shortstops in baseball in 1999 and 2000, and below average in 2001-2003. I have a feeling that Guzman benefited from the new turf, which supposedly played marginally slower, in 2004. This can't be the sole explanation for his suddenly improved defense. I can't make a definitive conclusion that Guzman is a bad fielder, even Derek Jeter had a decent season this year(which won him a Gold Glove), but I know he's been overrated.

The number one priority for the White Sox this off-season should be increasing their OBP. This is a team who, while ranking #1 in baseball in batting average with RISP was last in the AL in opportunities with RISP. The easiest way to increase opportunities is to systematically increase the teams overall OBP. You don't do that by signing a guy who has a career .303 OBP, and a career high three years ago of .333.

They should be looking to build a team who is solid defensively up the middle. Juan Uribe and Willie Harris are among the best in baseball at their respective positions. I can't make a case for Guzman being an upgrade over Uribe, or even Valentin defensively. Christian Guzman is not the answer for this team at $1, nevermind $5M. There's no reason to belive that he'd be an upgrade in any way over Uribe, or even Valentin, and thus his signing would be wasted money. The Sox should spend their money elsewhere.

There was a report across the wire that had the White Sox "settling" for Placido Polanco instead of Guzman, though any article that rates Guzman higher than Polanco loses some credibility.

The White Sox could go after Minnesota free agent Christian Guzman but more likely will settle for someone like Placido Polanco, who most teams see as a backup shortstop. Last season he hit a career-high 17 home runs to go with 55 RBIs for Philadelphia, playing 109 games at second base, 13 at third and none at shortstop

While Polanco may be a "backup shortstop", he's a top notch second baseman, both offensively and defensively. I highly doubt the validity of the above quote. It seems more like the speculation of one writer.

KW will be acting more under the radar now that it appears that his top free agent target was snatched out from under his nose. He's going to remain mum on the subject and we should expect these speculative articles to carry less and less weight.

Just for fun, here's Polanco's numbers from the same categories as listed above.

Year     EqA   FRAA    WARP

2000    .256      7     3.0

2001    .256     21     5.8

2002    .259     17     5.6

2003    .284      6     6.3

2004    .268     17     6.3

Career  .261     70    28.7

I'd hate to have to settle for Polanco. :p

Dodging a Bullet

2004-11-14T20:40:00.000-06:00

Last week, I documented my prediction for the White Sox off season, in which I lamented that Omar Vizquel would be the first free agent signing, before the market was set.

...Before the Monday morning paper hits your doorstep, the Sox will have inked Omar Vizquel to a 2-year deal, with an option for a 3rd, vastly overpaying in the process. This is not a bold prediction, I know, but it's not like there are any other SS available this year. (Renteria, Cabrera, Garciaparra, CoughGuzmansucksCough, Valentin, Counsell) Vizquel will be the first SS signed. The market will set itself in a week or two to be much lower than what the sox paid...

I was a little off, but not too far.

The Giants swooped in and made an offer to Vizquel that no GM in their right mind would match. Thankfully, Kenny proved, at least this once, that he is a GM in his right mind.

Bruce Levine was reporting on Friday night that the Sox had made an offer to Vizquel of 2 years and $10M. He said, although the deal wasn't likely to be signed for about a week, he'd "stake his reputation" on Vizquel signing with the Sox. About that reputation...

You won't find me crying "cheap" because the sox didn't match this offer. 3-years, guaranteed? for a 38 year old? defensive specialist? Are you nuts? Apparently Brian Sabean is, and when he signs Moises Alou, the Giants outfield will officially geriatric with Bonds, Alou, and Grissom. Vizquel can join them. I wonder if they have a Medicare over there. San Francisco is turning into the senior circuit.

So with Vizquel officially out of the picture, who do the Sox turn to?
To tell you the truth, I don't know.

My immediate answer is Placido Polanco, but the White Sox have shown absolutely no interest, and it appears that his price tag will be significantly more than I first suspected.

The remaining candidates are, Nomar Garciaparra($$$), Edgar Renteria($$$), Orlando Cabrera($$$), Christian Guzman(God, please, NO), Jeff Kent($$$), Placido Polanco($$), Todd Walker(run out of Boston for poor defense), and Mark Bellhorn(will be back in Boston). After that, the picking become very slim.

I've championed Eric Young as a nice fit to platoon with Willie Harris in the past, but that doesn't strike me as the kind of move that KW would make. He seems more likely to look for a diamond in the rough, or pursue a big name.

Looking at the lineup I used with Young in the link above, you can see that with an expanded payroll of about $70M the Sox would be able to compete, dumping more money into quality players at other needs.

For some unknown reason, the sox don't see Juan Uribe as their shortstop next year, but they have no problem with him at second base. I feel that his arm strength makes him even more of an asset at short. No matter who the Sox bring to fill Valentin's spot, the replacement will be the second best defensive shortstop on the team. Uribe had an OPS that was bested by only three full-time shortstops this season, only one of whom (Tejada) who could claim to be in the same class defensively.

The way I see it playing out now is the Sox either making a run at one of the big three shortstops on the market or settling for Christian Guzman. The latter resulting in me jumping off the nearest tall building.

Push for Kendall
With both catcher and a top of the order "grinder" as needs next season, the Sox should make a hard push at Pittsburgh catcher Jason Kendall. Bruce, we know how good his reputation is, Levine was reporting on Friday that the Pirates were willing to eat about $15M of the remaining $34M on his 3-year contract. If that is truly the case, KW needs to do everything in his power to convince Kendall that the southside is where he belongs. I say this because Kendall has a no-trade clause, and indicated that he would decline any trade that wasn't to the west coast. Kendall on the Sox is a longshot, but one that KW has to pursue hard because there's not too many other viable options out there for this team.

Class is in Session

2004-11-11T23:47:00.000-06:00

Well it's Thursday and that means it's View from a Fan day, otherwise known as Cheat picks apart 500-words of crap day. Actually, today's entry isn't the worst we have seen, but I'm feeling less and less remorse with each passing one of these I do.

I have only done a couple of these, so I suppose I should still give an explanation. The Chicago Tribune is running a piece submitted, by you, the fan, on the Chicago White Sox. They've largely been useless drivel. I've decided to pick them apart, and, as of this entry, give them a grade.

Today's article was submitted by Adam Gdowski. I'm pretty sure he misspelled his name, because there's no way a word is allowed to start with G and D consecutively. -3 Points

Adam: The White Sox should have a great chance to win the Central Division next season, but there are some holes that need to be filled in order to do that.

Solid opening. No delusions of grandeur, like saying the Sox are going to win the Series, or make a huge splash in the free agent market. +10 points

Adam: First, they need to get a top of the line pitcher that can be a No. 1 or 2. Carl Pavano probably will sign with Boston, but with the money the White Sox have open with the likely departure of Magglio Ordonez and Jose Valentin, they should go after Pavano.

Demonstrates knowledge of likely free agent destinations, +4 Points.

Adam: Eric Milton and Russ Ortiz are also pitchers that could be very valuable right in the middle of the rotation. But if those guys go to other organizations, Matt Clement or Jon Lieber are reasonable too.

Using Eric Milton and the word valuable in the same sentence, -4 Points.
Demonstrates knowledge of multiple free agent pitchers, the last two of whom will likely be very good values, +5 Points.

Adam: Second, shortstop is a hole to fill were there are many players available. Omar Vizquel looks like the guy who will take that spot, but Christian Guzman would be just as good and he also played for the Twins last year.

Quick, how many shortstops, who qualified for the batting title, posted a higher OPS than Jaun Uribe? Give up? 3 -- Three, only three Major League shortstops were better than Uribe using one of the most rudimentary offensive statistics. It must be his defense then, right? Nope, Uribe played Gold Glove caliber defense at short this season. My beef isn't really with Adam here. He's just regurgitating what he's read in the papers and heard on the radio. I can't be too hard on him for that. -1 Point

Mentioning Christian Guzman, on the other hand, that's grounds for a literary beatdown. I'd give myself carpal tunnel syndrome if said what I really wanted to about Guzman. I need to keep my hands and wrists healthy for the links, but you can pretty much figure it out reading here, here, and here. - 7 points

Adam: Another interesting situation is Paul Konerko and Carlos Lee. One of them is gone from what I'm hearing. In that case, Konerko is the man to go. I love him, but letting Lee go would mean even more of a possibility of Joe Borchard starting, so how about Konerko for Jason Kendall. Kendell is a great defender and a great on-base hitter.

Identifying Konerko as a better trade target than Lee, +4 points.
Konerko for Kendell, good idea, +3 points.
Kendall is a great defender? -5 points

Adam: Then Ross Gload or someone like Tino Martinez or Brad Fullmer could be a solid first basemen. And then there is the spot in right field. Jermaine Dye or Richard Hidalgo are probably not on the White Sox's radar but it puts a good defender on the field and a solid hitter at the plate. But that might be over budget so Carl Everett will have to do for a year.

Ross Gload at first base, +3 points
Tino Martinez or Brad Fullmer at first base, -2 points
Understanding fiscal constraints, +3 points

Adam: Last thing would be the bullpen. A veteran like Bob Wickman, Jeff Nelson or Paul Quantill[sic] will work to help Mr. Zero. So hopefully the White Sox do the right things to make next year a successful one and I believe it will.

Jeff Nelson was borderline terrible this year, but he's got a good track record, so I'll let that one slide. They could catch lightning in a bottle again. no points.
Bob Wickman would be a good option if he was cheap, which I doubt he'll be. +2 points
Misspelling Quantrill, -1 point. Any name with a Q in it is difficult to spell. Plus it's not really his fault that a misspelling of a notable major league pitcher made it to print. Tribune: -25 points
Quantrill's not a free agent, -6 points

Final Score: 5 points -- I'm not sure if that's any good or not. I know it's not going to be the worst score I hand out, but it's probably not the best either. All scoring was completely arbitrary and I reserve the right to change the grade in the future at my own whim.

Crystal Ball'd

2004-11-10T20:15:00.000-06:00

Friday marks the official beginning of the "hot stove league" and I wanted to make sure that I had my predictions down in print so that I could say "I told you so" at some point down the line. So here they are.

1) Before the Monday morning paper hits your doorstep, the Sox will have inked Omar Vizquel to a 2-year deal, with an option for a 3rd, vastly overpaying in the process. This is not a bold prediction, I know, but it's not like there are any other SS available this year. (Renteria, Cabrera, Garciaparra, CoughGuzmansucksCough, Valentin, Counsell) Vizquel will be the first SS signed. The market will set itself in a week or two to be much lower than what the sox paid.

2) The Sox will not trade Paul Konerko. KW does a lot of dangling of Konerko again, but finds that the market isn't as strong as he'd like it. Konerko deals with the situation well, and has another good season on the Southside, his last.

3) Carlos Lee is shipped along with $2M to Anaheim in exchange for Jose Guillen and a mid-level pitching prospect.

4) The Sox get out-bid by the Yankees for the services of Eric Milton. They win the bidding, over the Yankees, for Russ Ortiz. He get's a deal that pays him only $6M in '05, but a guaranteed $9M in '06, and has two option years.

5) They do nothing else. Esteban Loaiza is talked to briefly, but when the word bullpen is brought up he quickly signs his deal with Tampa Bay.

Roster

SP - Garcia

SP - Buehrle

SP - Ortiz (Russ, not Ramon)

SP - Contreras

SP - Garland



CL - Shingo

RP - Marte

RP - Politte

RP - Cotts

RP - Adkins

RP - Diaz



1B - Konerko/Gload

DH - Thomas/Gload/Everett

2B - Uribe/Harris

SS - Vizquel/Valdez

3B - Crede/Uribe

LF - Everett/Perez/Gload

CF - Rowand/Perez

RF - Guillen/Gload

C  - Davis/Burke

Around the league

Scott Boras, and his laundry list of clients, make for a slow signing period. Maggs doesn't sign with the Mets until just days before Spring Training.
A surprise team will make a run at Beltran, ultimately losing out.
Brad Radke stays in the AL Central, but not with the Twins.
The Twins make up for their loss by picking up a relatively unknown pitcher, who wins 16 games in '05, in a deal for Jacque Jones.
Jose Valentin ends up with a team that can appreciate his underrated fielding, and high slugging percentage. Boston, LA, or NY seem like good fits.

Rumor Mongering

2004-11-09T17:44:00.000-06:00

The GM meetings are currently being held in Florida, and there's more misinformation spewing from them than from either of the two presidential campaigns.

If you believe what you hear through the grape vine, anybody and everybody is available. Oakland's Big Three? Being shopped. Jorge Posada? Shopped. Randy Johnson? Shopped. Paul Konerko? Shopped.

Surprisingly there actually was a trade made. The Royals sent Darryl May and some Bukvich guy to San Diego in exchange for Dennis Tankersley and Terrence Long. The AL Central will never be the same again. HA... Allard Baird is rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Seriously, What does he have? Greinke? OK. Sweeney? Shopped.

The GM meeting is a junior high dance compared to December's winter meetings Senior Prom. There is a lot of uneasiness and posturing at the GM Meetings. At the winter meetings teams know what they want, how to get it, and whom to get it from.

So until the Winter Meetings roll around in mid-December, don't get too excited that you're talking to the most popular girl in school. In a month she'll probably have dumped you for the jock with the nice car.

Scouting Report by the Fans

2004-11-08T20:21:00.000-06:00

TangoTiger is once again putting together his "Scouting Report by the Fans for the Fans". I'd link to last year's results, but he's taken them down in an effort to lessen influence on this year's results. I seem to recall Aaron Rowand and Magglio Ordonez, being ranked among the top of their respective positions.

So if you can find the time, head on over to Tango's site, and fill out info for those players you feel comfortable giving an accurate report on.

I didn't give a report on Wilson Valdez, he hardly played at all and when he did it was often 2B; Sandy, I honestly don't even remember him behind the plate in '04; Roberto, he played only a handful of games in a sox uni; and Maggs, I don't really remember if he was having a good defensive season or not.

If you don't have an opinion on a particular characteristic of that player, then go on to the next characteristic for that player. This applies especially for you TV watchers, and you can't tell how well Torii Hunter can read the ball off the bat.

And, most importantly, do not, absolutely do not, look at any numbers. Don't look at his fielding percentage, range factor, zone rating, UZR, or anything else that someone else is telling you. I just want you to rely on your eyes. You are the scout. I need you to rely completely on your own observations.

Please take the time to read the instructions on Tango's page.

They MUST be Mocking Me

2004-11-05T21:54:00.000-06:00

We've gone over this before, but it's starting to get a little bit ridiculous. The Chicago Tribune is printing a weekly piece submitted by a Sox fan in it's online edition, ChicagoSports.com. I don't know their motivation for printing it, but I would guess it's to offer competition to the Daily Herald, who actually printed their fan contribution in the "real" paper as well as the online version; or it's an attempt to compete with the blogosphere in general; or just a pathetic attempt to provide content without actually having to pay a reporter or columnist. I suspect the latter.

The last time I highlighted one of these I didn't go into great detail, but I think that may change, and this could become a weekly thing. Mike's Baseball Rants and Baseball Think Factory used to rip apart the Joe Morgan chats back before they moved them to insider, why not start my own little tradition?

Yesterday's column was submitted by Kurt Wrase. I apologize in advance to Kurt, as it's not his fault the Tribune is too damn cheap to actually pay real writers. So let's get to it.

Kurt: I think that the White Sox have a chance to be great in 2005. They do need to make some moves and there are some they shouldn't make. First of all, they need to keep all of their core players.

I can't really disagree with him too much here. The sox do need to hold onto a majority of their players. This knowledge has to be tempered with the current White Sox payroll situation, however. That payroll remains somewhat a mystery right now, even though the Trib indicated it could go in excess of $70M this week.

Kurt: They cannot trade Paul Konerko, Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand or Joe Crede. Those guys have great chemistry together and that cannot be broken apart.

Over the past two seasons Paul Konerko and Joe Crede lead the league in bat-slamming, head-down-trots to first base after a pop-up on the infield or a weak ground out to the short stop. There is something to be said of having a little diversity on your team. Kurt just named 4 guys, who are right handed, don't walk much, and two of them couldn't win a race against a three-toed sloth.

Preach on all you want about "chemistry," the Cubs had "it" in 2003 yet didn't in '04 despite having nearly identical line-ups. The Red Sox didn't have "it" in '03, yet did in '04, despite having nearly identical line-ups. Chemistry is unquantifiable, and is begat by winning. (I can't believe I just used the word begat)

Kurt: Secondly, the Sox need to find another arm for their starting rotation, and there are tons of quality pitchers available. I would like to see them make a push for Brad Radke, Aaron Sele, Derek Lowe, Russ Ortiz or Carl Pavano. One of those guys could put the Sox's rotation over the top.

Sele??? Sele has posted ERA+ marks of 89, 74, and 91 the last three seasons. The last time he posted a win total in the double digits was 2001. He's hardly what I would call a quality starter.

Russ Ortiz has averaged 100 walks allowed over the past 5 seasons. His high walk total would destroy his ERA at the launching pad known as USCF.

Lowe is coming off of a season where he posted a 5.42 ERA, allowed way more hits than innings pitched, and struggled with his control. The positives are that he finished runner-up in Cy young voting just two seasons ago, is a ground ball pitcher, and we've now seen what he can do in the post-season. He likely priced himself out of the Sox price range though with his post-season performance.

Pavano is a good pitcher, but I don't think he's going to be worth the contract he's going to get. This piece at ussmariner does a nice job of explaining my view on Carl.

Bradke is the only pitcher I can't really quibble over from Kurt's list. He's a solid pitcher, even though he tends to give up the long-ball. His value to the Sox is doubled when you realize that you'd be stealing him from your division rivals. (I've also heard that both Detroit and Cleveland will look to pursue Radke.) The Sox should throw their names in the hat, if for nothing else than to drive the price up for those other teams.

Kurt: Third, the Sox obviously need a shortstop. Christian Guzman is a quality player. Juan Uribe could play shortstop or he could move over to second. Either would be fine. I think the Sox are set at catcher. Ben Davis and Jaime Burke can handle the job just fine. They both were clutch for us last season.

In what alternate universe does Christian Guzman rate out to be a "quality player?" The Twins have won their last three AL Central titles in spite of him. Adding Guzman to our team would do the exact opposite of adding Bradke. It would force the Twins to either acquire a better shortstop, of which there are many, or play Jason Bartlett, who hit .308/.398/.445 the last two years at AAA. If we don't sign him, there's a slim chance that the Twins may be dumb enough to resign the career .303 OBP Guzman.

Jamie Burke can adequately handle the role of back-up catcher, but I don't ever foresee Ben Davis as any contending teams starting catcher. His career .237/.306/.366 looks a lot like Mike Matheny's .239/.293/.336, except Davis doesn't provide half the defense or play calling that Matheny does.

Kurt: If the Sox do lose Magglio Ordonez, that would devastate South Side fans. But I think the Sox will survive. Carl Everett and Timo Perez can handle the job in right field.

The Sox will lose Ordonez, and their fans shouldn't feel devastated. He was offered the richest contract in team history, and chose to turn it down. When he subsequently went down with what could be a career threatening injury he lost all hopes of a big payday in '05. Why should we feel sorry for him?

I hope Carl Everett can stay healthy enough to patrol right field for 150 games, because the alternative of having Timo Perez out there makes my stomach turn. I really wish Ross Gload was decent defensively in RF; I would feel a whole lot better.

Kurt: If the Sox make some of these moves they will be a better team then the 2004 squad. With the steady leadership of manager Ozzie Guillen, I think the Sox can win the division and be a quality playoff team.

So basically, if the sox add one of the 5 pitchers listed, only one of whom they can afford(Sele) without moving anybody, and Christian Guzman they are suddenly going to win the AL Central and be a quality playoff team? I don't see it.

* * * * *

I don't wanna seem like I'm being to harsh on Kurt here. For all I know he's a great guy.

The internet is forum where people can express their views and opinions. It's an open exchange. For every right-wing Instapundit, there's a left-wing Atrios. You may not agree with my views, and you can voice that opinion in the comments section (so long as you keep it under 1000 characters).

The internet is one big incestuous loop. Site A links to Site B, and B to C. Then C back to A, until D disagrees with A, B, and C, and all write scathing reviews of D's views. I guess what I'm trying to say is, I'm just a spoke in the wheel and sooner or later I fully expect somebody else to do the same exact thing I just did to Kurt right back to me, and I'm fine with that.

Flip-Flopping

2004-11-05T19:02:00.000-06:00

On Monday, I wrote about the small budget the White Sox would be carrying into the new season and the hiring of Wally Backman in Arizona. Wednesday, I wrote a piece on putting together a budget team.

It's amazing how quickly these entries can become completely irrelevant. Before I went to bed on Wednesday night, I caught a Chicago Tribune article that claimed the Sox would be opening up their pocketbook a little bit this year. And then today, the Diamondbacks have fired Wally Backman, and hired Bob Melvin. I'm beginning to feel like some of the stuff I write actually has some sort of cosmic effect on the world, and causes the powers-that-be to do the opposite.

* * * * *
Today featured one of the most bizarre off-season moves of the year to date. The Yankees declined the $8M option of Jon Lieber.

Now I have to preface the rest of what I'm about to write with a little disclaimer. I am a huge Jon Lieber fan. Not that I've followed his career very closely, but since I about the time I left high school, he's been one of my favorite pitchers, even though he spent 4 years pitching for the Cubs.

You may be skeptical about my infatuation with Lieber, but I actually drafted the guy in 3 of my 4 fantasy baseball leagues this past season. This was a guy who came off of reconstructive surgery, and didn't even play in 2003, and I'm blowing my fantasy drafts with him. He didn't tear up the league, but he certainly proved to be a much more fruitful pick than some guys I selected earlier(Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett).

So now that we've gotten my love-fest for Lieber out of the way, WTF was Steinbrenner thinking? I say Steinbrenner, knowing full well he's not the GM, Cashman is, but we all know who is the final decision maker in that organization. Lieber came into the Season as the Yankees #5 or #6 starter, and by the time the playoffs rolled around he was starting game #2 of the ALDS.

So why decline an option worth $8M? If it was any other team, I wouldn't really question it, but $8M for a 5th starter almost seems like the Yankees are underpaying. The Yankees now have until November 12th to sign Lieber to a deal before he can legally negotiate with other teams. But why let it come to that if you are the Yankees? You have nearly an unlimited resource of funds. The savings that you may end up with ($3M?) isn't going to make-or-break your budget. Meanwhile you run the risk of losing your second best pitcher to any one of the other 29 teams, including bitter rivals the Red Sox. Cashman better get a deal done quickly or the "Big Stein" is gonna have his butt in a sling.

I have no realistic grasp on the market for Lieber, but I would think that his stock soared in the post-season(1-1, 3.43ERA, 21IP). Only Carlos Beltran and Derek Lowe raised their stocks more with their amazing post-season performances.

I can't imagine a team in baseball who wouldn't want Lieber on their staff, and that's why it's so hard to determine what the market will price him at. He'll likely end up with a contender who has some cash to spend, i.e. Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox. The White Sox should do everything in their power to sign him by November 13th. For my money, he's a safer investment than Carl Pavano.

* * * * *
The Cubs signed Neifi Perez to a 1 year, $1M contract for 2005. Neifi has a career OPS+ of 63. He makes Timo Perez look like Barry Bonds. I can hardly contain my laughter.

Building a Budget Team

2004-11-03T21:29:00.000-06:00

I set out to build the best team I can on the White Sox budget constraints. As cited in my previous entry, the Sox intend to have an opening day salary of about $65M.

There's no plan that can fit Carlos Beltran on our team at $65M, while filling our other holes. There's no plan that can fit Randy Johnson on our team at $65M, while filling other holes. There's no way to sign any major free agent and still stay under the magic $65M without dropping a highly paid player of our own. It's sad to say that we have to say goodbye to one of our own in order to add anything, but unfortunately it's the truth.

Here's the players we currently have under contract who I project to make the opening day roster.

Player    Salary(in Millions)

Paul Konerko         8.75

Carlos Lee           8.00

Frank Thomas         8.00

Carl Everett         4.00

Aaron Rowand         1.25*

Joe Crede            0.45#

Juan Uribe           1.25*

Willie Harris        0.40#

Wilson Valdez        0.35#

Ross Gload           0.40#

Joe Borchard         0.35#

Timo Perez           1.00*

Mark Buehrle         5.75

Freddy Garcia        8.00

Jose Contreras       6.00

Jon Garland          3.00*

Shingo Takatsu       2.50

Cliff Politte        0.90

Damaso Marte         1.50

Jon Adkins           0.40#

Neal Cotts           0.40#

                   $63.05M

* Indicates estimated arbitration salary.

# Indicates player has yet to have 3 full years of Major League service.

Salary is estimated against league minimum.

Ok so the goal of this is to put together the best team possible for $65M.

First we have to recognize the weaknesses. In order based on need, I would put them, SP, 2B/SS, RP, C, OF.

Here's how I would build my $65M team.
1) Put Paul Konerko on the trade block -- Ross Gload has proven to be a more than suitable back-up. He would be a cheap and effective replacement.

2) Sign Eric Young to a $1M deal. -- He can platoon at 2B with Willie Harris. He will put up around .300/.375/.425 batting vs. LHP. Young hardly played at second last season, but that was largely due to Alfonso Soriano's refusal to move to the OF. His playing time would be limited only to against LH starters, Willie(career .186/.234/.233 vs. LHP)would be brought in as a defensive replacement as soon as the starter was lifted.

3) Make sure you get value for Konerko. -- It's likely that a deal involving Konerko would require the sox to eat part of his contract. Last off-season, there was a proposed deal for Odalis Perez, and I would expect a similar package this year. The Sox would need to get a solid starting pitcher in return, or a good bullpen arm along with a good, higher level, prospect to help the team this season. I would expect a savings of about $2M if we traded for a starter, and about $5M if the deal involved a reliever, which would then be spent on the open market for a starter.

4) Target a pitcher. -- If the sox turn Konerko into relief help, then they better have enough money left over to sign a good FA starting pitcher. I'm not looking for a world beater, just someone who can go out there every 5 days and pitches his ass off. (I would have suggested Derek Lowe, but his stock went soaring this post-season) They should target those second tier guys, who will give them god value; Wilson Alvarez, Paul Byrd, Jose Lima, Kris Benson, Corey Lidle, etc.

If they traded for a starter, I would target a LH reliever on the Free Agent market. They could be expensive, unless you convince Scott Schoenewies to go to the pen. Possible targets include Steve Kline and Chris Hammond

5) Take what money you have left and get yourself a catcher. Mike Redmond, Greg Zaun, and Ben Davis are all options.

Here's what those moves would do to the payroll.

Players      $63.05M

Konerko       (8.75)

Starter        5.00

Releiver       2.00

Young          1.00

Burke           .40

Catcher        1.50

Cash           2.00

====================

Payroll      $66.20M

I used the $63M figure I got from the 21 players who figure to be back next season from above, subtracted Pauly's salary, then added a rough estimate for each of the remaining positions. I had left Jamie Burke off of the initial list, so I added him here, as he will certainly be backing up at catcher. The subtraction of Konerko, and the addition of the 5 others brings us to a perfect 25, and fills all of the holes that I listed at the beginning (SP, SS/2B, RP, C, OF). of this entry. OK, I guess I missed filling that final outfield spot, but if we don't keep Timo around, who am I gonna complain about?

Here's a breakdown of how I would fill out my everyday line-up cards.

Vs. RHP                        Vs. LHP

Harris  2B .252/.321/.311      Young   2B .299/.380/.434 

Lee     LF .290/.340/.501      Rowand  CF .298/.361/.523 

Thomas  DH .301/.419/.540      Thomas  DH .332/.458/.657 

Everett RF .286/.360/.503      Lee*    LF .277/.339/.442

Rowand  CF .285/.321/.457      Everett RF .251/.312/.387 

Gload   DH .298/.358/.445      Crede   3B .278/.324/.457

Uribe   SS .264/.307/.428      Gload   1B .383/.420/.574(47 AB's) 

Crede   3B .246/.295/.424      Uribe   SS .268/.306/.463

Catcher C  .---/.---/.---      Catcher C  .---/.---/.---



*Posted a .937 OPS vs. LHP last season.

I used career numbers for the splits, so while Harris appears ugly leading off, he was a much more respectable .279/.366/.335 last season against righties.

As you can see, I like having an offensive threat in the #2 spot. This is where I feel my offensive philosophy differs from that of the White Sox front office. I suspect that Ozzie and KW would rather have a "good bunter" and baserunner in the #2 spot over someone who would post a near .900 OPS. Rowand and Lee have both hit successfully from the #2 spot before, and I suspect they would do the same again in my fantasy line-up. Ross Gload fills in Konerko's vacated spot, and adds a lefty bat and a "grinder" to the line-up.

The Starting rotation would be solidified too, look like this at the worst (Garcia/Buehrle/Contreras/Garland/Bona Fide 5th Starter) and this at the best (FG/MB/Solid #3/JC/JG).

This isn't roster that's going to make the pundits scream "World Series contender," but I think it would once again put us in the driver's seat for the AL Central. Cleveland and Minnesota are both going to improve this off-season, and it's not going to be easy once again.

$65M is a severe limitation on the payroll when you already have $63M comitted to next season. It could end up representing 1/4 of the payroll of the 2005 New York Yankees, and it will be less than 1/2 of the World Series champion Boston Red Sox. I hate to sound like that guy, but until they open up the pocket book a little more, the White Sox are going to continue on their string of second place finishes.

Old Faces, New Places

2004-11-01T19:27:00.000-06:00

There were a couple of White Sox related hirings made official today. Tim "Rock" Raines was hired as the new Sox first base coach, and Wally Backman was hired as the Diamondbacks new manager.

I don't really have an opinion on the White Sox hiring either way. Raines replaces Rafael Santana, who also held infield coach duties with the Sox. I not even old enough to remember Rock playing anything but the outfield, but that has something to do with him spending too much time in Montreal. It's unclear to me whether he will assume the infield duties as well. Santana was not dropped from the organization though. He assumes the role of minor league infield instructor, a job at which according to Hawk, Santana was among the best in baseball. That's if you can believe anything that Hawk says.

I don't believe that Rock's presence will have a great impact (positive or negative) on the team. His #1 job will be to instill confindence in Willie Harris, who admitted at the end of the season that he wouldn't run unless he was given the steal sign. Here's a little taste of what Rock had to say.

"A lot of people say the emphasis is on stealing bases, but it's more of an emphasis on running the bases," Raines explained during a conference call Monday in which he talked about replacing Rafael Santana as the only coaching change for manager Ozzie Guillen's second season. Santana will stay with the team as a minor league infield instructor.

"It's about taking the extra base or going around first base hard and forcing that outfielder to make that throw to second," Raines added. "An emphasis on that area could change the club."

It's really hard to get excited about baserunning, especially when last season was the best in recent memory for the White Sox in that department.

The Arizona Diamondbacks made it official today, and hired former Birmingham Barons manager Wally Backman. This is noteworthy because in the middle of last season, Backman appeared to be the heir apparent to the White Sox managerial throne.

At some point during when the White Sox were struggling, (I don't remember now. There were a lot of times when the Sox were struggling last season.) Backman made a phone call to his long time friend, former teammate, and current Twins manager Ron Gardenhire before they were due to play the Sox. During the phone call he told Gardy to beat the Sox so that lame duck manager Jerry Manuel would be fired, and he could take over the White Sox managerial reigns. How this private conversation became public is unclear to me, but it did, killing Backman's chances within the White Sox organization in the process.

Plenty of people were upset when they heard the things that Backman allegedly said, but what did he really do wrong? Calling and old friend and wishing him well? Hoping his superior would fall on his face so that he could take over? Who among us has not done something similar? Backman didn't do anything malicious or unethical, yet he was vilified in the press and blackballed by the White Sox.

The sad fact is that last August the White Sox probably had the most dangerous team in all of baseball. We've seen excellent examples of what a well timed managerial firing can do for a team in each of the last two seasons. (Torborg fired, McKeon hired in '03; Williams fired, Garner hired in '04) We're left to wonder "what could have been" if the Sox only had the balls to pull the plug on the Jerry Manuel experiment a few months earlier. I don't know if they would have won the World Series, or even the AL Central, but I can tell you with absolute certainty that they wouldn't have rolled over and played dead in September against the Twins like they did with Manuel at the helm.

I'll be wishing him the best with the D'backs. I'd be willing to bet that his team outperforms their Pythagorean W-L too.

Same ol', Same ol'
I need to preface this little rant with this statement. I am one of the most optimistic people you will ever meet. I'm always pulling a Monty Python, and looking "on the bright side of life." With that being said, you can begin to understand my complete disgust with the recent series of little nuggets of information the Sox are letting slip out about next season's payroll.

November 1st, WhiteSox.com

White Sox general manager Ken Williams told me last week that the payroll for 2005 figures to check in around the same point it was when 2004 concluded. That total should be somewhere between $63 million and $65 million.

October 28th, Chicago Tribune

The deferred money could make it more palatable for the Sox, who are expected to have a payroll of approximately $65 million in 2005, about the same as 2004.

A few weeks ago, I noted that the Sox are on the books for about $63M next year already for 21 players. Simple math tells us that leaves an average of about $500K per player for those last 4 guys.

All I can say is that I'm extremely disappointed with this news, and that I can't even bring myself to examine it any further. I'll probably have an entry up in the next day or so, where I try to piece together the best possible team I can for $65, and contrast it with what I think the Sox will do.

Haiku
No Haiku today,
A scary cartoon instead
Oops, I'm a liar.

ZiPS Sox 2005

2004-11-01T01:38:00.000-06:00

Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory has put together a his projections for next season. There's no real reason to put too much thought into them. They're just an amalgam of the past few seasons, a players age, and some magic fairy dust. They don't actually effect a players performance.

But they're fun to look at, so here they are.

Name               AVG   OBP   SLG  AB   H  2B  3B  HR   R RBI HBP  BB   K  SB  CS

Magglio Ordonez   .313  .378  .544 511 160  39   2  25  82  92   6  50  61   5   6

Carlos Lee        .296  .358  .505 594 176  35   1  29  97 101   5  55  84  11   5

Frank Thomas      .242  .378  .469 426 103  25   0  24  62  75   8  88  89   1   1

Paul Konerko      .276  .352  .497 543 150  24   0  32  74 100   6  60  84   1   0

Ross Gload*       .298  .339  .468 410 122  27   2  13  54  57   4  23  55   3   3 

Aaron Rowand      .276  .329  .491 442 122  32   3  19  71  66   9  28  74  13   5 

Carl Everett#     .258  .331  .447 396 102  19   1  18  51  60  11  34  67   3   3

Joe Crede         .258  .313  .462 535 138  29   1  26  70  82   8  37  79   1   2

Willie Harris*    .260  .335  .341 419 109  15   2   5  62  35   2  47  74  20   9

Jamie Burke       .275  .320  .366 287  79  12   1   4  37  31   3  17  35   0   1 

Jose Valentin#    .218  .290  .448 464 101  22   2  27  67  72   3  46 121   6   5 

Alex Escobar      .258  .313  .478 427 110  18   2  24  64  70   4  32 128   4   3

Joe Borchard#     .231  .294  .418 507 117  24   1  23  68  68   4  43 136   4   4 

Timo Perez*       .272  .311  .382 356  97  19   1   6  40  41   2  19  31   5   5

Ben Davis#        .233  .291  .380 300  70  17   0   9  33  37   2  23  71   1   1

Sandy Alomar Jr.  .233  .263  .317 189  44   7   0   3  17  20   1   7  20   0   0  

Juan Uribe        .267  .314  .443 506 135  25   5  18  73  65   4  33  96   8   8

Omar Vizquel#     .262  .322  .361 496 130  25   3   6  64  50   2  44  57  14   7

*Lefty

#Switch hitter

I included Vizquel just because I don't think those are the type of numbers that you buy for $8M over 2 years. There's a couple of troubling projections in there.

Frank's season looks scary, but unfortunately I can't disagree with it. He's shown in the past that he's slow to recover from injuries, and I suspect 2005 will be no different.

I love Gload's projection. They need to find a way to get him 400+ AB's next season.

Name                P Age    ERA   W   L   S   G  GS    INN   H   R  ER  BB   K  HR 

Mark Buehrle*      sp  26   4.04  17  11   0  35  35  236.0 251 117 106  55 148  25  

Freddy Garcia      sp  29   4.39  14  11   0  32  32  211.0 216 113 103  65 173  30 

Jose Contreras     sp  33   5.56   9  12   0  30  28  157.0 161 106  97  81 143  30 

Jon Garland        sp  25   5.03  12  12   0  33  33  197.0 219 121 110  74 115  27  

Damaso Marte*      cl  30   3.73   5   2   0  72   0   70.0  58  32  29  31  75   6 

Shingo Takatsu     cl  36   4.19   6   4   0  59   0   58.0  55  29  27  22  48   6  

Cliff Politte      mr  31   4.19   3   2   0  59   0   58.0  54  29  27  22  53   7  

Felix Diaz         sp  24   5.04   7   7   0  31  21  134.0 147  82  75  40 101  26  

Neal Cotts*        sp  25   5.27   5   7   0  38  15   94.0  84  61  55  69  92  10  

Jon Adkins         sp  27   4.95   5   6   0  36  16  111.0 123  67  61  38  72  17  

Scott Schoenew*    mr  31   5.16   6   7   0  39  14  103.0 114  65  59  44  64  15  

Arnaldo Munoz*     mr  23   5.21   7   8   0  39  21  133.0 135  84  77  66 110  20  

Jeff Bajenaru      mr  27   4.57   3   3   0  54   0   61.0  58  34  31  32  57   7 

Jason Grilli       sp  28   5.54   7  13   0  28  28  164.0 181 111 101  74 113  29

The pitching numbers all seem inflated. I'm not the only one to notice this, though this could just be from the new USCF.

For the pitchers, Cotts' walk rate jumps out at me. Almost as many walks as hits. That's not gonna happen. I think Diaz's numbers are spot on, though his HR rate is high.

I did a search to find last season's ZiPS and I came across this nice 2004 season preview (ZiPS included).

Edit: Found a very brief explaination of ZiPS here.

Weasl'd

2004-10-29T18:26:00.000-05:00

Just checked my referrers, and it appears as though I've been linked by Ben Weasel of the band Screeching Weasel. This is a special treat for me because I was a little punk back in the day. I even had a (red)mohawk for about a week.

I remember having the Screeching Weasel patch safety pinned to my trying-not-to-look-cool black backpack in the halls of my high school circa 1993. I'm pretty sure that they were one of the first "real" concerts I ever attended. I seem to recall seeing them in a VFW hall, or something like that.

Anywho, you younger guys should check out Screeching Weasel. Qaulity.Punk.Rock.

Boogada Boogada Boogada

Randomness

2004-10-29T18:01:00.000-05:00

I thought the World Series was a big disappointment this year. There was little-to-no suspense; I didn't really care if either team won or lost; and it was filled with poor play and little league style mistakes.
Steve Stone resigned from the Cubs broadcast booth yesterday. I've always loved Stoney. He adds so much to the broadcast. I think he had a down year, (I've heard him be better before) but he was still a pleasure to listen to when I could catch a Cubs game.

I heard him on a couple of radio broadcasts today, and he continues to take the high road. Class act, Steve Stone. I wouldn't mind seeing him on the southside in some form next year.
Mike Lowell had his option picked up, and his contract guaranteed for three more seasons, all but taking him off the trade block.
The Trib had an article today about the Sox financial situation for next season. They said to expect a payroll similar to this past season's. I tend to disagree, as I pointed out in one of the post-season outlook entries.
Yesterday, the sox picked up the options of Frank Thomas, Carl Everett, and Shingo Takatsu. All of this should come as no surprise to you if you've been around lately. I boldy predicted as much weeks ago.

They also declined to pick up Sandy Alomar's option. Hopefully Sandy will be given a job inside the organization.
There's not to much action in baseball in the next couple weeks. Teams can negotiate with their own players exclusively until November 12 (or so), at which point those eligible for free agency can negotiate with other teams.

I figure the Free Agent market to be a slow one. White Sox persona non grata, Scott Boras, represents almost all of the Major Free agents. Among his clients are the top three outfielders, (Beltran, Drew, and Ordonez), the top FA infielder (Beltre), and a collection of Expensive pitching talent (Millwood, Lowe, plus a bunch more I can't think of off the top of my head). The rest of the baseball world is going to wait for the top guys, represented by Boras, to set the market before negotiating with other players. He's gonna be one busy guy.
I don't care what you political affiliation is, this coming Tuesday, if you are eligible to vote, get out there and let your voice be heard. This blog has suffered over the past week or so as I commuted to Wisconsin to volunteer for a campaign. I'm headed to Iowa for the weekend, and things should return to normal sometime next week. Vote damnit.
Haiku
November second,
Make sure your voice matters; Vote.
Please say no Timo

Pitching Situation

2004-10-26T18:20:00.000-05:00

The publication a couple articles piqued my interest to look into the White Sox starting pitching situation over the next few years.

The first was an article in the Daily Southtown, that mentioned two possible names on the White Sox radar, Randy Johnson and Eric Milton. The second was from the New Jersey Star-Ledger, and indicated that the Yankees may be willing to eat all of the remaining salary owed Kevin Brown, in order to get him out of town.

Here's how the Starting Pitching breaks down, in terms of Millions of dollars, over the next three seasons.

                     2005    2006    2007

Mark Buehrle         5.75    7.75    1.00*

Freddy Garcia        8.00    9.00   10.00

Jose Contreras       8.00**  9.00**

Jon Garland          3.00*** 4.50***

NY Cash             (1.50)  (1.50)

==========================================

Total               23.25   28.75   11.00



* $9.5M option in '07

** NY sent $4M to the Sox, $1M in '04, and $3M divided between '05 & '06

(I'm not sure on the distribution of this $, so I divided it evenly)

*** Estimated arbitration awards.

In 2005, Brown makes $15M and Johnson makes $16.5M($6M deferred over an unknown period of time). Adding them to the payroll would put the sox rotation at between $38 and $40M on a team that figures to have a payroll around $75M, which is purely an educated guess by me.

A deal that brought Johnson to the southside would likely have to include both Carlos Lee and Jon Garland. So while the Sox add $16.5M in salary, they would lift about $11M from the books. Last off-season, the Diamondbacks made a similar trade when they sent Curt Schilling to the Red Sox for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge DeLaRosa, and Michael Goss, none of whom have turned into productive players for the D'backs as of yet. The Snakes got burned on this deal, in addition to the Richie Sexson debacle, and will be looking for more in return this season.

It is my thought that they will be looking for young, Major League ready players, in order to turn around their team as quickly as possible. Garland almost certainly would be in the package that brought Johnson to Chicago. In addition, I'd expect a couple of Cotts/Adkins/Munoz/Bajenaru/Diaz to be gone as well.

Before I get too involved in trade scenarios with the D'backs, I should explore what the Yankees are looking to do with Kevin Brown. Apparently, they are so desperate to get rid of him that they would be willing to eat all of the contract to get him out of town. The Yanks would likely be looking for a prospect-laden deal from a team with a rich farm system like the Twins. They would then package those prospects, and toss in one of their own (Donnier Navarro), to Arizona in exchange for Randy Johnson. That would essentially mean the Yankees are willing to spend $31+M dollars and a prospect to for the rights to Randy Johnson for one season. And you wonder why people hate the Yankees.

There is a chance that Bud Selig could put his foot down and not allow such a trade (KB + $15M <---> Prospects) to occur. He has spoken out on the "purchasing" of prospects in recent years, and this would be a perfect scenario to put an end to it.

Realistically, the Sox have no shot at getting Kevin Brown. They would have to put a deal together that started with Sweeney or Anderson and McCarthy to even begin serious talks, and that's not likely to happen anytime soon.

Based on past deals made by the Twins and their reluctance to give up prospects, I would be willing to bet that they are not involved in serious talks either. I can't think of too many other clubs who would be in situation where they would have enough to package together to warrant getting Brown for "free" in return.

The most likely scenario would probably the Yankees eating part of Brown's salary for a top prospect, and a ML ready player, plus pulling a simillar deal with Javier Vazquez's name in place of Brown's. They would then package most of the players they recived for Johnson.

I can't foresee Kevin Brown or Javier Vazquez ending up in the AL Central division right now. The best farm system in the Central is undoubtedly the Twins. Then there is a steep drop-off to the White Sox and Indians. The Royals and Tigers sorry systems hardly justify a mention.

Getting back to the original intent of this entry, I was looking to explore the White Sox starting pitching situation in the years to come. The Daily Southtown article idicated interest, misplaced as it may be with his 42HR's allowed last season, in Eric Milton. Adding another long-term contract to the Sox rotation would be a big risk.

Let's say that the Sox land a second tier starting pitcher in the off-season, at $7M a year for 3 years. What does that do to the payroll?

                     2005    2006    2007

Mark Buehrle         5.75    7.75    1.00*

Freddy Garcia        8.00    9.00   10.00

Jose Contreras       8.00**  9.00**

Jon Garland          3.00*** 4.50***

FA pitcher           6.00    7.00    8.00

NY Cash             (1.50)  (1.50)

==========================================

Total               29.25   35.75   19.00

That essentially means that the Sox are locked into 5 pitchers at an average of $32.5M for the next two seasons. Would you be willing to give a pitcher a 10-year deal? No, the injury risk would stop you. Well that's essentially what would be happening. That's 10 seasons, combined across 5 pitchers, that you're going to be paying a good portion of your overall payroll to.

Adding second tier guy ($5-7M) wouldn't kill the sox financially, but signing the top FA pitchers likely would. Pedro would command twice as much as out fictional second tier pitcher, and likely would require a longer commitment too. Here's what Pedro added to the pitching staff would look like.

                     2005    2006    2007

Mark Buehrle         5.75    7.75    1.00*

Freddy Garcia        8.00    9.00   10.00

Jose Contreras       8.00**  9.00**

Jon Garland          3.00*** 4.50***

Pedro               16.50   16.50   16.50    16.50

NY Cash             (1.50)  (1.50)

==========================================

Total               39.75   45.25   27.50

Not only are you chewing up payroll and flexibility by signing Pedro to a long term deal, but you're adding another health risk. The White Sox would be walking a tightrope between dominant rotation, and total disaster. It's a chance worth taking, but one that should be given careful consideration of all the possible outcomes first. The Cubs and Yankees are perfect examples of lots of big name pitchers on one staff, they both failed in their quests for a World Series title.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have a quality starting staff, but the White Sox are not in the Yankees class where they can buy their entire rotation. They need to concentrate more on developing arms that will not only be dominant, but relatively cheap for a few seasons. I mentioned the Cubs before; they had Zambrano, Wood, Prior, Clement, and Maddux playing for under $8M a year(total cost: $22.58M in '04). Clement and Zambrano could easily be off payroll in '05, giving them flexibility to go out an acquire another top pitcher, if necessary. Here's a breakdown of some of the better teams pitching staffs and their corresponding 2004 salaries.


Team            Rotation Salary    6/15 Salary**    % of total Payroll

Oakland                  $14.55        $59.77                    24.3%

Yankees                  $52.95       $182.59                    29.0%

White Sox                $12.37        $64.18                    19.3%

Boston                   $43.95       $131.40                    33.4%

Anahiem                  $36.62       $122.53                    29.9%

Cubs                     $22.58        $93.00                    24.3%

Houston                  $17.55        $62.25                    28.2%

St. Louis                $19.28        $81.58                    23.6%

Dodgers                  $32.38        $92.80                    34.9%

Atlanta                  $27.30        $74.43                    36.7%

** I used 6/15 because that was the last date that Dugoutdollars was updated.

I'm not looking to do a study on pitching staffs, and the optimal money that should be spent on them. I'm just vamping here. I have an idea, I go with it. I was just making that chart as much for me as I was for you. You can never have too much information.

Note: I did a little bit of rambling here, and never really had a thesis. I've been pretty distracted, and I'm gonna be crazy busy for the next week. Normally I would just save this draft, clean it up and post it later, but I might not be able to get to that until sometime next week. Some info is better than no info. So I apologize, in advance for my probable absence over the next week, and in succession for my disorganized ramblings.

Comparin' and Contrastin'

2004-10-26T01:37:00.000-05:00

There's not really to much to write about the White Sox at this time of year. All of the baseball world is focused on a sloppy World Series. (The Red Sox have committed 8 errors and left 21 runners on base in 2 games, yet lead 2-0) Both games have been won with brute force. Call me old fashioned, but I'd prefer an old-school pitchers duel to a new-school slugfest any day.

On Saturday, the Red Sox and Cardinals combined for twice as many runs as points scored by Iowa and Penn State combined in a college football game. I happened to watch almost all of both games, and thought the football game was much better.

In the low scoring contest, any single play can decide the final outcome of the game. In the slugfest, all you're waiting for is the final AB's; the end of the game is where all of the suspense lies. In a close game, the entire game is filled with suspense. That tension is what makes a game for me. That feeling that if I miss a single pitch, a single play, I've missed the entire game. That's my type of game.

The Chicago Tribune is running a weekly piece submitted by a fan. Here is the latest entry.
The Sox may finally be on to something. It appears that Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams have dedicated the off-season to reconstructing the current power hitting, right-handed dominated lineup that has tortured the South Side fans for the past few seasons.

A roster built around defense, the ability to hit singles and consistent pitching will win the Central Division in 2005. So here is how the Sox can get there.

The Sox need a proven leadoff hitter that can get on base. Minnesota free agent Christian Guzman...
Yeah I pretty much stopped reading there. This is classic grass-is-greener thinking. As I've stated before, Christian Guzman is terrible. But, I guess since he's on a team that finished ahead of us for the past 3 years he must be better than anything we have right?

Time to beat a dead horse. Guzman in black, Valentin in red
```
YEAR       G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA      EQA     VORP

2002     148     .273     .292     .385     .677     .228     .227     11.7

2002     135     .249     .311     .479     .790     .258     .261     25.7

2003     143     .268     .311     .365     .676     .231     .234     12.7

2003     144     .237     .313     .463     .776     .257     .257     30.1

2004     145     .274     .309     .384     .693     .235     .233     14.8

2004     125     .216     .287     .473     .760     .247     .244     17.0
```
Over the past 3 years, Guzman hasn't "gotten on base" at a better rate than Jose Valentin, despite out pacing him this season. The rest of his offensive numbers, outside of average (which I've discussed as a poor measure of comparison between two players), can't hold a candle to Jose's production over the last three years. The only year that it's even close is the last. And that's when you know it's time to show Jose the door, he's starting to put up Guzman-like numbers.

Surely Guzman is a better fielder than Jose. He makes up for his lack of offensive skill with his glove. Nope.
```
YEAR     FRAA     FWS

2002       -1     7.7

2002        3    Unknown

2003       -5     7.0

2003        8     8.1

2004       17     9.6

2004        9     6.1
```
FRAA, or Fielding Runs Above Average, is a BP stat that attempts to quantify how many runs a player has saves with his defense. Guzman tops Jose in his 2004 production, but on his career he's been a bad fielder (Career FRAA -24 compared to Jose's 9). (I couldn't find Jose's fielding Win Shares from 2002, Guzman's I stole from Gleeman's site.)

Guzman had his best offensive season, of the last three years, while Jose was having his worst, and Jose was still more productive. Guzman posted his first ever season with a positive FRAA, while Jose has not posted a negative one since coming to the Sox in 2000.

Jose's offensive numbers are in obvious decline. His high K totals and propensity for long slumps have made him expendable, but Christian Guzman is not the answer.

Haiku
New White Sox short stop,
Thank you, Jose Valentin.
Jaun Uribe, you're up.

Friday Night Musings

2004-10-22T18:04:00.000-05:00

I'm going through basbeall withdrawl. Last Friday was the last time I was left without a baseball game, but I made up for that with copious amounts of beer and pizza. I guess I'll be looking to do more of the same tonight. Here's some random thoughts on the upcoming series.

- Boston annouced that they will start Wakefield, Schilling, and Pedro in the first three games of the series. That makes me wonder who is going to be the other guy they let start. Both Arroyo and Lowe have had a dominant start in this post-season, but each also have a shaky outing too. My guess is that Arroyo has become the long reliever/first guy up in the pen. I look for him to get some serious work in game 1 or 2.

- I can't wait to see Pedro step into the batters box. Remember how much was made of Piazza catching Clemens in the All-Star game? I wonder how much mention pedro "the headhunter" will garner. I bet there are people burning up the phone lines to Cards pitchers.

- What does Francona do with Ortiz for games 3,4,5? My guess would be that he plays games 3 and 5, but sits game 4 when Lowe is likely to start. That's what I'd do at least. I would want a good defense out there with my extreme ground ball pitcher on the mound. I would probably start Pokey at second that game too. If you get behind, it's not that big of a deal to replace them with your big boppers.

- Two Ex-Sox from the 2000 playoff team are making their first world series appearence. Actually, I'm not sure if Eldred is even on the playoff roster. I haven't seen him in any of the games.

- Cheat's Prediction: Boston in 6 -- Back in February, I guessed Boston over Houston. I was close. I'm not gonna change now.

Update: Eldred is indeed on the World Series roster. The Hardball Times has a much more complete series preview, that also picks boston, but in seven games.

#2 "Hole"

2004-10-21T18:42:00.000-05:00

A little while ago, I ranted about the new statistic that MLB debuted. It was relatively useless, but there was one interesting thing buried in the data.

The White Sox were the best team in baseball at driving in runs from scoring position. The problem being, the Sox were the worst team in the AL at getting a person into scoring position. It is with that knowledge that I reiterate the need for a #2 hitter.

Here's a breakdown of how each spot in the order fared this season for the White Sox.

        AVG/OBP/SLG         Opponents

#1   .279/.349/.414    .299/.349/.428

#2   .262/.303/.443    .293/.358/.480

#3   .292/.362/.529    .264/.331/.440

#4   .270/.376/.502    .247/.324/.482

#5   .278/.345/.503    .293/.356/.491

#6   .262/.328/.453    .296/.354/.498

#7   .252/.302/.418    .250/.326/.450

#8   .251/.312/.443    .258/.330/.431 

#9   .261/.312/.400    .244/.289/.364

Two things jump out at me right away, 1) The #2 hitters only outperformed the #7 and #9 hiterrs. 2) Our pitchers did a nice job pitching to the opponents #3 & #4 hitters.

.303 is an unacceptable OBP for anyone who's not a defensive specialist, and I would expect them to bat near the bottom of the order. The #2 spot would have looked even worse had Aaron Rowand(.326/.360/.477 from #2) not taken 132AB's from that position.

The Major League average for the #2 spot this season was (.275/.329/.417). The Sox actually had a higher than average OPS from the 2 hole. The problem though was the supreme lack of OBP from that position.

The Sox had the 3rd lowest OBP in baseball from the #2 spot. I know there are some of you out there who think Christian Guzman would be a good replacement for Jose Valentin, now that they are both free agents, but he was one of the main reasons Minnesota was the worst in baseball from the #2 spot(.230/.291/.318). All signs point to Minnesota offering Vizquel a contract, and that's fine with me, cuz we have better option.

Though it would be funny if they sign Guzman again. Schadenfreude.

Just how bad was Guzman? In the lead-off spot, he was (.286/.294/.436). Holy crap is that bad. He took 2 walks in 133 AB's!!! Wilson Valdez could do that. From the #2 spot he was actually worse (.244/.279/.326). He drew a few walks, but still not enough, and he didn't hit, or hit for power. That .605 OPS is wretched.

The numbers don't get any better over a broader period of time. He's been just as bad for a while now. In the last three seasons, he was (.258/.283/.356) in the #2 spot, not nearly enough of an improvement to even warrant consideration. Away from the Metrodome over that time he's a pitiful (.259/.281/.351). So let's end all talk of even thinking about getting Guzman. Pssst, he's worse that Jose Valentin defensively too, despite his good season this year.

Who at #2?

As #2 hitter               2004         2002-2004

Placido Polanco  .300/.345/.441    .295/.343/.435

Omar Vizquel     .292/.355/.390    .275/.334/.384

Barry Larkin     .291/.353/.430    .287/.345/.402

Edgar Renteria   .276/.311/.417    .293/.340/.425

Christian Guzman .244/.279/.326    .258/.283/.356

Now don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Carlos Beltran in the 2-hole, but I don't need to go into great detail for you to know that he's good. I listed the "other" top free agents who are adept at playing the #2 spot.

As you can see, Polanco has been very consistent for the last three years. He is younger than Larkin and Vizquel, posted better numbers over that time, and by all accounts he is a solid defender and team player. By contrast, Larkin is perceived to be out there only for himself, and isn't in the same class defensively anymore. Renteria is probably too expensive for the White Sox budget, and Vizquel has been up and down the past few years. Guzman was just added for effect.

To me, the choice seems obvious.

Outside the Box

2004-10-21T17:56:00.000-05:00

During the game last night, I couldn't help but think that Joe Torre managed that game "not to lose". It sounds like a cliche, but I think it holds true.

Even before Vazquez gave up the HR to Damon, I was questioning the reasoning behind pulling Brown. Despite his poor control, Brown is still a groudball pitcher, and remained one pitch away from exiting the inning unscathed. Damon, a ground ball hitter, was striding to the plate. Even though his speed would have made turning a DP nearly impossible, a groundball most likely would have resulted in an out, and no runs scoring. With the human strikeout behind him in the order, it seemed like the proper play to me.

We all know what happened from there.

Here's what I would have done.

In the second inning, with Brown struggling with his control. I would have gotten Vazquez and Mariano Rivera throwing in the BP. Rivera would have been my first option. He's much more used to throwing out of the pen, something Vazquez hadn't done since his rookie season, and with inheritting runners. Rivera is one of the best post-season pitchers in the history of baseball.

I would have let Brown pitch to Damon, and only go to Rivera if Damon gets on. It was only a 2 run game at the time, and the Yankees still had 24 outs to get back into it.

If I had to go to Rivera, I would have had him pitch the 3rd too, against the heart of the Boston order. Then I would have brought Vasquez in the 4th with no one on base, and my team still in the game, or possibly ahead at that point.

And that is why I'm not a major league manager.

AL Central All-Stars

2004-10-21T17:33:00.000-05:00

Manny Ramirez (Cleveland '93-'00) -- Left in first year of Free Agency. Becomes Free Agent. -- Signs with Boston
Keith Foulke (Chicago '97-'02) -- Traded with one year left before Free Agency. Becomes Free Agent. -- Signs with Boston
Johnny Damon (Kansas City '95-'00) -- Traded with one year left before Free Agency. Becomes Free Agent. -- Signs with Boston
David Ortiz (Minnesota '97-'02) -- Non-tendered by Minnesota when paycheck appears to big of a price for production. Becomes Free Agent. -- Signs with Boston

Detroit was unable to contribute a team member. I love baseball.

2005 Yankees

2004-10-21T01:19:00.000-05:00

C  - Posada - $12M

1B - Delgado - $10M

2B - Kent - $11M

SS - Jeter - $20

3B - ARod - $20M

LF - Matsui - $8M

CF - Beltran - $20M

RF - Sheffield - $13M

DH - Giambi/Williams - $15.5M/$12M



Rotation

1. Mussina - $19M

2. Brown - $15M

3. Pedro - $18M

4. Vazquez - $10.5M

5. Lieber - $8M



Relievers

Rivera - $10.5M

Gordon - $3.75M

Quantrill - $3M

Benitez - $7M

El Duque - $6M - (splits time between rotation and pen)

Odalis Perez - $7M - Lefty

Heredia - $1.8M



Bench

Lofton - $3.1M

Back-up C - $.5M

Utility Infielder - Omar Vizquel - $5M

Payroll: $259.65M

Baseball is a beautiful game, isn't it?

This just in...

2004-10-20T01:45:00.000-05:00

Tim McCarver: A walk's the same as a HR.

In other news, Barry Bonds broke the sigle season HR mark by 159. Thanks Tim.

Haiku
McCarverisms,
Walk's the same as a HR
The Cheat's head asplode

Octoberfest

2004-10-19T01:52:00.000-05:00

On Saturday night, I headed out to a local watering hole to participate in "Octoberfest". The festivities featured a various assortment of bands, most trying to relive their youth through playing the songs that echoed the halls of their respective high schools; a special selection of beers, most of which were largely ignored by the greater public in favor of the mega-brewery's glorified water; and a collection of TV's tuned into the nation's pastime, baseball.

Usually I would position myself in the best possible viewing location, this being the best time of the baseball season and all, but to this point this year's post-season has left me wanting more. The endings were predictable; the series, onesided. Maybe it was just that they couldn't live up to the excitement from last year's incredible October, but on that night, I hardly paid any attention to the TV screen and instead focused on drowning my sorrows at the bottom of a collection imported brews.

Since writing off October baseball that night, the 'Stros have climbed from a 2-0 hole to take a 3-2 lead, the Bosox have battled back from down 3-0 to 3-2, and the last three games have finished on walkoffs. It's not the White Sox, but it's the next best thing. I'll be watching every pitch I can, muting every appearance of Scooter™, rooting for good baseball. The last 3 Yanks/Sawks games have all gone over 4:20 in length, which isn't exactly going to draw the casual fan, but to steal a phrase from McDonals™; I'm lovin' it.

Haiku
I guess I should explain the recent fascination with haiku.

I was having a AIM™ conversation with a friend of mine, who happens to play in a band. Where were discussing names for their newest album, and I suggested that the title should be a haiku. He thought I was crazy, but when I would only respond to him in the form of haiku, he started to get it. Suddenly, I was in the middle of a conversation where both of us spoke only in haiku form. I was surprised at the relative ease to distill a thought into a standard 5-7-5 haiku. Somehow, that carried over to the blog, and I think it's going to stay. I created a haiku archive, which I'm hoping will eventually serve as an interesting summary/timeline of the White Sox and this blog. I'm not claiming to have any talent for it. In fact, I think that's why I like the haiku; it has defined rules, so I can't mess up.

Post season baseball,
Boston and Houston come back.
Yankees will still win.

A Closer Look: Placido Polanco

2004-10-18T01:01:00.000-05:00

As the off season moves forward, I'll take a look at some perspective free agents that the White Sox should consider. This is the first in that series.

I discussed in the free agent outlook that the Sox first target should be a SP, but I'm a little unclear on who would be the best fit. So for the first in a series of spotlights on free agents, I chose Placido Polanco of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The next position after starting pitching that I identified as a need was SS/2B. I interchange these two, because of the emergence of Jaun Uribe, who is able to play both positions with Gold Glove caliber defence. That provides a ton of possibilities for the front office.

Here's a look at the top available free agents at those two positions.

Second Base                  Short Stop

Placido Polanco              Omar Vizquel

Pokey Reese                  Craig Counsell

Eric Young                   Christian Guzman

Roberto Alomar               Nomar Garciaparra

Mark Grudzielanek (Option)   Jose Valentin

Todd Walker                  Rich Aurillia

Jeff Kent(Option)            Alex Gonzalez

Ricky Gutierrez              Barry Larkin

Mark Bellhorn                Orlando Cabrera

                             Edgar Renteria

Polanco came up through the Cardinals farm system, and appeared to be a light-hitting utility guy. He batted for an average of .279 in the minors, but had just a .344 slugging percentage while on the farm.

In 2002, Polanco was traded from the Cards to the Phils in the deal that brought Scott Rolen to St. Louis. Upon arrival in Philly, he became their everyday 3B. In 2003, he was moved to 2B for most of the time, doing the same in '04, playing just 13 games at 3B.

At the plate, Polanco has had a power spike the last two seasons, hitting 14 HR's in 2003 and 17 in '04. Those numbers would surely increase in the homer-friendly USCF. He is a contact hitter, which the sox haven't had in their everyday line-up since early in the Jerry Manuel ERA, and produces a lot of groundballs. (career 1.89 G/F ratio) The one thing that he would bring to the Sox is consistency. He has not hit below .289 since becoming starter. He hits both lefties and righties well, though slightly better against lefties, which would be a welcome addition to a team who had troubles winning games started by lefties this season largely because thier table setters could not hit(or even get on base) vs. LHP.

At the same time the Cards where turning Polanco into Rolen, the White Sox traded their 2B, Ray Durham, to Oakland for a minor league pitcher named Jon Adkins. They have been looking for a viable replacement ever since.

Here's how Polanco compares to the White Sox starting 2b since the departure of Ray-Ray.

        White Sox(2B)          Polanco  

2004   .268/.324/.412   .298/.345/.441

2003   .261/.337/.393   .289/.352/.447

2002   .251/.326/.372   .288/.330/.403

Polanco has outperformed the White Sox second basemen in every season. He was .296/.353/.427 after the trade deadline in 2002, which what I used for the Sox in 2002.

Here's what the ESPN scouting report had on Polanco for the 2004 season.

2003 Season
Placido Polanco might be the Phillies' most underrated regular. He is the best situational hitter in the lineup and one of the most complete players in the league. Despite being limited to 122 games last season, much of that due to a deep thigh bruise suffered late in the year, he reached career highs in home runs and RBI.

Hitting
Polanco is a classic No. 2 hitter, but he was willing to lead off or bat further down in the order when asked. He not only has the ability to bunt or advance a runner by hitting to the right side, but he also can turn on a pitch. Best of all, he is intelligent enough to know which approach best suits the circumstances. He has become a more patient hitter, walking 42 times-also a career best. There simply aren't many holes in his swing, as evidenced by the fact that he struck out just once every 13 at-bats.

Baserunning & Defense
Polanco's unselfish style is demonstrated in the field as well as at the plate. When first acquired from the Cardinals in July 2002, he played third base. He started last season at second, his more natural position, but moved back to third without complaint after David Bell went on the DL in July. Polanco has an adequate arm and decent range, but compensates by rarely making a mistake at either position. While not the fastest runner, he can take the extra base and stole 14 bases while being thrown out only twice.

It's hard to imagine KW trying to sell us Sox fans on "grinders" and not consider this guy. These ESPN scouting reports generally paint a rosy picture of a players talents, but I've had this column in the can for a while, as I exchanged e-mails with various Phillies bloggers to get a better feel for Polanco's value. The consensus among those that responded to me was that they would all love to have Polanco back, but the time is now for über-prospect Chase Utley.

Polanco would slide perfectly into the #2 spot, or even fill a leadoff position if asked. He is exactly the type of player that Ozzie Guillen has indicated the club would target in the free agent market, but as of now, it appears their #1 target is Omar Vizquel.

I think that Polanco can be had for 2 years @ $4+M(maybe with an option), 3 years @ $4M, or 4 years @ $3+M. In other words, he shouldn't break the bank while filling a hole and offensively. The perfect type of player, when we have so many holes to fill.

I would normally be campaigning for a guy like Mark Bellhorn here, who gets on base more often, but Polanco and the Sox seem like a match, whereas I can't see the fans putting up with Bellhorn's league leading strikeout total. Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, Edgar Renteria, and Orlando Cabrera are all good options, but probably price themselves out of the White Sox plans.

Haiku
My free agent picks
Placido Polanco? Yes.
Christian Guzman? No.